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Top Three Videos – August 21, 2024

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George Gammon: “Dedollarisation?” 🛑 THIS is what EVERYONE is MISSING (Aug 11, 2024)

The Jay Martin Show...

Summary

 

The treasury curve is a powerful economic indicator, and the current market correction confirms the potential for a severe recession and significant impact on purchasing power.

 

Economic indicators and market corrections

 
  • The treasury curve is the most powerful economic indicator we have, and the recent market correction confirms what I’ve been looking at.
  • The idea of “This Time It’s Different” is more dangerous than it seems, especially when looking at historical cycles and patterns.
  • The yield curve and interest rates are more about future growth and inflation expectations than supply and debt outstanding.
  • The 10-year treasury yield would be a whopping 25 basis points higher than it is today, even if they normalized everything.
  • When currency is lent into existence, it creates demand for that currency in the future, and if demand goes down, the debt that created those currency units is extinguished.
  • George Gammon believes we are in the beginning innings of a long-term commodity super cycle, with prices never going up in a straight line.
     

Global financial system and potential risks

 
  • The significance of early warnings and information sharing in the financial world cannot be overstated, as seen in the example of the Wuhan lab leak.
  • Big players with insider information will move their funds into the safest and most liquid assets, such as treasuries, in the event of big risks.
  • The smartest money hedges their bets early based on insider information and resources, getting ahead of the game.
  • The majority of debt created outside the United States is extremely short term, which could lead to potential hyperinflation and a skyrocketing value of the dollar outside the US.
  • Japanese banks being forced to take on higher risk assets due to low dollar funding costs could have widespread implications for the global financial system.
     

Government interventions and their economic impact

 
  • The rebound from 2020 to 2024 was a result of artificial government interventions during the covid period, and now we’re paying the economic Fiddler.
  • The FED dropping rates in response to a recession, not to prevent it, adds insult to injury and pours gas on the fire.
  • The next recession could be the worst of our lifetime, similar to a 1930s type scenario.
  • The average Joe and Jane’s purchasing power has gone down significantly, even though their nominal wages have gone up, leading to a night and day difference in standard of living since 2019.
 

Per Bylund: Unseen Cost of Regulation (July 31, 2024)

Mises Media...

Summary

 

Regulations can hinder innovation and economic growth, leading to negative consequences for society, and the tradeoff is not simply between a flawed present and a perfectly regulated future, but rather between various imperfect systems, including government failures.

 

Critique of Regulation and Government Intervention

 
  • “You’re assuming that the regulation is perfect that the regulation is the solution and you’re not really seeing the problem with it.”
  • “If the market fails, then government steps in, but what about government failure?”
  • “The tradeoff is not between a faulty present and a perfect regulated economy, but between a faulty present, a faulty regulated economy, and a market solution.”
  • “Imposing regulations like a minimum wage could have led to a very different path for economic growth in the West.”
  • “One little regulation could affect the whole damn marketplace, potentially leading to the death of millions and a lower standard of living for all.”
  • “Even Libertarians have no freaking clue how destructive regulations are, forcing us to be poor for just a few more millennia.”
     

Impact of Regulation on Innovation and Entrepreneurship

 
  • “The driving force in the economy is entrepreneurship and innovation, creating something new that replaces the old in a process of creative destruction.”
  • Regulations can hinder future innovation by limiting the options available to entrepreneurs, potentially leading to lesser value creation.
  • The introduction of touchscreens revolutionized consumer electronics, but regulation could have stifled innovation and access to better technology.
  • “The touchscreen ban would halt not only current innovations but also future advancements that build upon existing technology.”

The Dark History of Money and Banks (Aug 17, 2024)

Bankless Clips...

Summary

 

The interplay between centralized monetary systems, political power, and historical grievances shapes the financial landscape, highlighting the risks of banking institutions and the influence of private bankers on government.

 

  • “Monetary decisions have always been political, reflecting the control of winners and losers in the system.”
  • The Opium Wars marked the beginning of China’s “century of humiliation,” a period of foreign domination that still resonates in their collective memory today.
  • China’s centralized monetary system is quietly accumulating gold as a key reserve asset, challenging the dominance of Western central banks.
  • Thomas Jefferson warned that “banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies,” highlighting the profound risks posed by financial institutions.
  • “Central banks manipulate the system to siphon wealth from the people into government hands.”
  • The relationship between sovereigns, governments, and private bankers is described as an “Unholy alliance” that shaped the banking system.
  • The “Unholy Alliance” between private bankers and the state has shaped the financial system, allowing both to gain wealth and control over society.
  • “In the city of London, the banks vote in the political power, not the individuals who live there.”
 

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