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Top Three Videos – August 29, 2023

MADLAND

Paul Joseph Watson

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The elderly woman, Eve, was visited by two male police officers who claimed to be investigating a complaint from Happy Valley Pride, highlighting the potential chilling effect on free speech and the sensitivity surrounding LGBT issues.
  • The concept of thought crimes and the resemblance to the dystopian world depicted in the movie “1984” raises concerns about the erosion of freedom of expression and the potential for excessive surveillance.
  • Only 3.9% of residential burglaries in West Yorkshire result in someone being charged, highlighting the lack of response and investigation by the police.
  • Using the tiege Hanley skincare system simplifies your routine by providing different products for different parts of your face, resulting in smoother and more hydrated skin.
  • The skincare brand mentioned in the video claims to be “simple, affordable, and effective,” with over 5,000 five-star reviews on their website.
  • The case highlights the suppression of free speech and the intolerance towards those who hold different views, particularly when it comes to the LGBTQ+ community.
  • Human rights law prioritizes policing social media posts over addressing real-life crimes, creating an institutionalized system of thought policing.
  • The police claim they don’t have resources to deal with actual crime, yet they have time to interrogate individuals for having an opinion shared by the majority of the population.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 West Yorkshire police interrogated an elderly woman in her own home for taking a photograph of a sticker that said “keep males out of women only spaces” posted on a trans Pride poster.
  • 01:13 A woman was given a lecture and warned about potential harassment for taking a photo of a sticker on a public street, which was cataloged as a non-crime hate incident by the police.
  • 02:15 Only a small percentage of burglaries in West Yorkshire result in charges, with the police often not responding to thefts, despite the area having a high crime rate.
  • 05:12 Police continue to enforce politically correct speech codes, arresting a councilor for tweeting a link supporting Christian beliefs and visiting a man’s home for expressing support for the same petition; Stevens was arrested for sharing a video of a preacher’s arrest for islamophobia.
    • Police are still enforcing politically correct speech codes despite being told not to, as seen in cases where a councilor was arrested for tweeting a link to a petition supporting another councilor’s right to express Christian beliefs and a SWAT team visited a man’s home for expressing support for the petition.
    • Stevens was arrested and humiliated in front of his family for sharing a video of a Christian preacher being arrested in London for islamophobia.
  • 06:56 Police arrested and interrogated a speaker without reason, confiscated their phone, and contacted a Twitter user for others’ negative comments, highlighting the misuse of police resources on monitoring social media instead of addressing serious crimes.
    • Police ambushed and arrested the speaker, confiscated their phone, and interrogated them without legitimate reason, while another incident involved police contacting a Twitter user for negative comments made by others, prompting a reminder that individuals are not responsible for third-party comments on social media.
    • Human rights law includes the right to be offensive, but police resources are being wasted on monitoring social media posts instead of addressing more serious crimes.
  • 08:29 People can now be reported to the police for disagreeing with opinions, expressing concerns about men in female-only spaces can lead to home visits and interrogations.
    • People can now report you to the police for disagreeing with their opinions, even though the police claim they don’t have the resources to deal with actual crime, and expressing concerns about men in female-only spaces can lead to home visits and interrogations.
    • Summit Whole Food multivitamin is a natural immune support booster with vitamin C, zinc, and rose hips for reducing inflammation, boosting metabolism, supporting tissue repair, protecting against aging, and improving brain function, available for purchase at Summit dot store with worldwide shipping.

What Will Cause The Next Financial Meltdown? | Sam Burns

David Lin

Burns opines that despite concerns about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and potential risks in the real estate sector, the overall state of the economy is positive and a severe financial meltdown is unlikely. His view is worth careful consideration.

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Outlook and Factors

  • The negative outlook on the economy last year has shifted, with Wall Street firms revising their outlook and expecting a recession by this time, but the economy is still doing relatively well.
  • The recent data suggests a soft landing in the economy, surprising the bears who were predicting a hard landing.
  • It is a limited assumption to only look at what the Federal Reserve is doing and not pay attention to fiscal policy, as it plays a significant role in the overall financial picture.
  • The general trajectory of inflation is expected to continue declining over the next six to 12 months, partly due to housing costs and rents, as well as other disinflationary factors.
  • Fiscal power focused on improving the productive capacity of the economy is believed to be more effective in bringing down inflation and driving the economy.
  • The rise in 10-year yields has already caused mortgage rates to increase, impacting consumers with higher borrowing costs for credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans.
  • Despite some sectors struggling to hire, there is still strong demand for labor in the economy, with estimates of top-line growth for S&P 500 companies indicating potential job security.
  • The potential impact of rate cuts on the market depends on whether they reflect progress on inflation and slower growth, or if they are a response to a crisis, which could have negative consequences.

Systemic Risks and External Shocks

  • The next financial meltdown may be caused by shocks to the system that make people stop spending money and companies reduce their demand for labor, leading to layoffs and lower spending.
  • A significant decline in China’s economy could have a ripple effect and lead to a global financial crisis.
  • The 2008 financial crisis was caused by a broken and over-leveraged banking system, not by the Fed cutting rates.
  • The banking system is much better capitalized now than it was in 2008, reducing the likelihood of a financial meltdown.
  • External shocks like wars, viruses, and countries falling apart are unpredictable events that can have a major impact on the financial system and should be closely monitored.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

  • The Bears, who have been skeptical about the strength of the economy, have been shocked by the bullishness of others in the past year.
  • Sam Burns believes that despite a potential slowdown, the stock market will continue to rise due to internal momentum and earnings support.
  • The fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving investors who were previously underweight equities to catch up, which could further contribute to market instability.
  • Despite rising earnings estimates and increased bullish sentiment, there is still money that hasn’t been fully committed, suggesting potential instability in the market.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 People have overlooked the positive state of the economy due to their focus on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, but with improving risk appetite and rising earnings estimates, a financial meltdown is unlikely, although the commercial office real estate sector may be at risk.
    • People have been too focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and not enough on fiscal policy, which has caused them to overlook the positive state of the economy and be wrong about the strength of the economy.
    • The stock market is expected to continue to rise throughout the year, although not as dramatically as in the first half, based on positive indicators and earnings support.
    • There has been an improvement in risk appetite and market sentiment, with people buying higher risk stocks and credit spreads narrowing, leading to a positive view of the economy and a rush to catch up for those who were previously underweight in equities.
    • Goldman Sachs noted that the recent rally in U.S macro products, driven by short covering, is likely coming to an end, suggesting that there may be less momentum going forward.
    • Earnings estimates are still rising and there is money that hasn’t been fully committed, suggesting that as long as the economy is doing well and earnings estimates continue to rise, a financial meltdown is unlikely.
    • There is still potential for stocks to rise, particularly in technology, consumer discretionary, industrials, and real estate, although the commercial office real estate sector may be at risk.
  • 05:13 Despite some areas of the real estate market improving, office spaces remain weak, leading to a divide in the sector, and the economy is still doing relatively well despite negative outlooks last year.
    • Some areas of the real estate market, such as retail and industrial warehouse spaces driven by consumer demand, have shown improvement while office spaces remain weak, leading to a bifurcation in the real estate sector, and despite negative outlooks last year, the economy is still doing relatively well.
    • The recent data has shown a soft landing in the economy, surprising those who were bearish and proving them wrong about the strength of the economy.
    • The focus on the FED’s monetary policy has overshadowed the importance of fiscal policy in understanding the causes of the next financial meltdown.
    • Burns discusses the impact of various acts and policies on the economy, noting that they have helped prevent a recession and improve employment and supply chains.
  • 08:33 Despite a small increase in interest rates, inflation is expected to decrease due to factors such as housing costs and rents, and the economy remains stable with strong consumer demand driven by increased jobs and income support, although spending may decrease if job losses occur or wage increases reverse.
    • A small increase in interest rates will not significantly impact inflation, as the overall trajectory of inflation is expected to decrease due to factors such as housing costs and rents.
    • The economy’s slow growth and reduced bank credit, along with fiscal power focused on improving the productive capacity of the economy, will keep inflation from rising and drive the economy.
    • The increase in 10-year yields has already caused mortgage rates to rise, leading to higher borrowing costs for consumers in terms of credit card, mortgage, and auto loan rates.
    • The offset of higher interest rates is balanced by increased income from bonds and bank accounts, along with fiscal stimulus and expansion of capacity, resulting in a more stable economy compared to previous cycles.
    • Despite higher borrowing costs, consumer demand remains strong due to the increase in jobs and aggregate income, resulting in continued nominal growth in retail sales.
    • People are currently financing autos and houses less, but income support is still driving spending; the cost of borrowing is a smaller factor, and the strong job market and constrained labor supply are contributing to continued nominal growth, with real wages starting to climb back up, but if people start losing their jobs or wage increases reverse, spending may decrease.
  • 13:55 The longer term concern for a financial meltdown is if shocks to the system cause reduced spending, potential layoffs, and decreased demand for labor, although there is currently strong demand for labor and signs of top-line growth.
    • The longer term concern for a financial meltdown would be if there are shocks to the system causing people to earn less money, leading to reduced spending, potential layoffs, and a decrease in demand for labor.
    • There is still strong demand for labor and signs of top-line growth, so there is no indication of reduced demand for labor or layoffs in corporations.
    • Notable companies have been going bankrupt at a high rate, with July 2023 seeing the largest monthly total of corporate bankruptcy filings since March and surpassing the total filings for the previous year.
  • 16:40 A potential cause for the next financial meltdown could be a sharp change in fiscal policy, a global event like a severe downturn in China’s economy, or another supply shock such as a war or outbreak of COVID-19.
    • The concern is that there has been a rotation in the economy, with some businesses struggling and others doing well, such as shipping companies.
    • The demand for shipping has decreased significantly as people have shifted towards services and travel, resulting in struggling businesses in the transportation industry.
    • Due to a decrease in available capital and higher interest rates, some businesses are struggling and filing for bankruptcy, leading to potential layoffs and a need for structural shifts in the macro landscape for larger companies to also face financial difficulties.
    • A sharp change in fiscal policy, a global event like a severe downturn in China’s economy, or another supply shock such as a war or outbreak of COVID-19 could potentially cause the next financial meltdown.
    • A potential cause for the next financial meltdown could be a shock to the system, such as high interest rates or a major policy change, either externally or internally driven by politics.
    • The fear is that if the Chinese economy slows down too quickly, it could have a significant impact on companies reliant on trade with China and could already be impacting global and US inflation, but as long as it’s a gradual effect, it should be fine.
  • 22:19 Higher interest rates by the treasury stimulate the economy by increasing interest income for the wealthy, although it may have a greater impact on spending for the working class, but the overall effect is offset by increased spending from the wealthy and other factors.
    • The increase in interest payments by the treasury, although a significant portion of tax revenues, does not pose a risk of bankruptcy as the treasury can print money to pay its bills, and the higher interest payments act as a form of stimulus for the private sector and the economy.
    • When the FED raises rates, the treasury pays out more in net interest, which results in increased interest income for those who own treasury bonds and other similar assets, including corporations.
    • The treasury is paying out more in interest to bondholders, resulting in a higher deficit and new money creation, which is then spent in the economy, potentially causing inflation and distributional effects.
    • Higher interest rates can be stimulative for the wealthy as they earn more interest income, which may offset the higher cost of borrowing for some people and potentially stimulate the economy.
    • Higher interest rates for the working class have a greater impact on spending than on the wealthy, but the wealthy still contribute to the economy by spending a significant amount of money.
    • The slowing effect of less spending by people with less wealth is offset by the greater spending by people with more wealth, and there is also a bonus from higher interest income and the lagged effects of last year’s Social Security checks.
  • 28:23 The next financial meltdown may be caused by factors such as fluctuations in inflation, potential credit restrictions, and the struggle to justify high interest rates, but it is unlikely to be as severe as the 2008 crisis due to lessons learned and rule changes.
    • Inflation is expected to decrease in the long term, but there may be temporary fluctuations due to factors such as energy prices, causing noise in the data.
    • The Federal Reserve may not want to tighten policy too much to avoid causing a recession, but they will likely maintain a hawkish stance until core inflation decreases, and it is expected that they will not consider rate cuts until next year when inflation numbers come down closer to their target.
    • Restricting credit and lowering policy rates could potentially cause the next financial meltdown.
    • If the economy continues to grow modestly and inflation decreases, the Federal Reserve may struggle to justify keeping interest rates high, potentially leading to negative effects on the equity markets.
    • The 2008 financial crisis was caused by a broken and over-leveraged banking system, and the Federal Reserve cut rates in response, but future rate cuts would likely be a reaction to a financial problem rather than the cause.
    • The banking system is currently better capitalized and there are no clear stress points, so it is unlikely that a financial meltdown similar to 2008 will occur due to lessons learned and rule changes.
  • 34:19 Cuts in interest rates could be positive for the stock market, but if made in response to a crisis, it would be negative; a recession is possible in the future, but it will likely be gradual unless there are major political changes in fiscal policy; S&P 500 could reach new highs if earnings estimates hold and the Federal Reserve cuts rates; commodity sector may struggle due to weak demand; healthcare struggling, technology and discretionary consumer areas doing well, but risk of slowdown in industrials sector; policy mistakes and external shocks pose risks for negative economic outlook.
    • Cuts in interest rates would be positive for the stock market if they reflect progress on inflation and slower growth, but if they are made in response to a crisis, it would be a negative scenario; however, the speaker does not see any immediate drivers of a shock or a recession this year.
    • There may be a recession in the future, but it will likely be a gradual slide unless there are major political changes in fiscal policy, and the outcome will depend on the momentum and political support in the coming years.
    • It is possible for the S&P 500 to reach new all-time highs by the end of the year, potentially reaching 4,800 points, if earnings estimates hold and the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
    • burns predicts that the commodity sector will struggle due to weak demand from China and slowing growth in the developed world, unless there is a significant supply shock.
    • Healthcare has been struggling while technology and discretionary consumer areas have been doing well, but there may be a risk of slowdown in the industrials sector, and macro drivers like commodities and the impact of COVID-19 have affected the economics of certain businesses.
    • Policy mistakes, such as aggressive monetary or fiscal tightening, pose the main risk for a negative economic outlook, while external shocks like wars, viruses, and countries falling apart are also unpredictable factors to watch out for.

Neocon adventure in Niger risks big conflict in West Africa

The Duran

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The pressure for intervention in Niger from France, the United States, and other Western countries is extremely strong, indicating the importance of Niger to the West.
  • The real danger lies in the potential expansion of conflict across West Africa, not just in Niger.
  • The neocon adventure in Niger risks escalating insurgencies and instability across West Africa, potentially leading to a big conflict in the region.
  • The intervention in Niger may be driven by political motivations, with the Biden team wanting to prevent the Russians from gaining influence and being accused of losing West Africa.
  • The United States prioritizes geopolitical interests in Niger, including countering China’s influence, alongside the importance of resources like uranium and lithium.
  • The involvement of different global powers, such as Russia, Indonesia, and the United States, in the situation in Niger highlights the potential for a larger conflict in West Africa.
  • France’s dominance in West Africa may be challenged as the United States becomes more influential in the region, causing France to be nervous about losing its power.
  • A win-win solution would benefit France, Niger, and West Africa, but powerful individuals in France may stand to lose in the process.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Pressure from France and the US for ECOWAS intervention in Niger due to its importance to the West, potentially leading to a larger conflict in West Africa.
    • There are reports of a developing situation in Niger, with pressure from France and the United States for intervention by ecowas countries, as Niger is seen as too important to the West to be left alone.
    • Niger had to sell their uranium and lithium to their established customers, potentially seeking a better price.
    • The French and the US are pressuring ECOWAS to intervene in Niger, potentially leading to a larger conflict in West Africa.
  • 03:18 The deployment of fighter jets and attempts to enlist people in Nigeria by the Niger government could lead to a big conflict in West Africa, escalating insurgencies and instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and other countries.
  • 05:00 The intervention in Niger is driven by political motives, as the Biden team wants to prevent Russian influence, avoid accusations of losing West Africa, and claim victory over Putin, even though there is no evidence of his involvement.
  • 06:16 A potential war in West Africa could result in more refugees heading towards Europe, with France and the United States both seeking ECOWAS intervention for different reasons – France to maintain its position and avoid appearing as a colonial power, and the US to counter China’s influence in Niger.
    • A war in West Africa could lead to a significant increase in refugee flows towards Europe, but the United States and France both have an interest in getting ECOWAS to intervene.
    • France wants ECOWAS to intervene in Niger to restore their position and avoid the appearance of France as a colonial power, while the United States wants to prevent China from gaining influence in Niger.
  • 08:33 France is nervous about US involvement in Niger but wants it to maintain their power in West Africa, while the lack of US interest prevents intervention by ecowas.
    • The United States’ lack of interest or support for an intervention in Niger would prevent an intervention by ecowas, as France’s stance alone would not be enough to make it happen.
    • France is nervous about the US getting involved in Niger due to concerns of a potential double cross, but they also want US intervention to maintain their power in West Africa.
  • 11:13 The United States restoring the previous government in Niger would shift power away from France towards the United States, similar to historical examples of dominant powers being displaced by the United States in Iran and Saudi Arabia.
  • 12:56 France should engage diplomatically with Niger’s military leadership to find a fair solution, rather than being concerned about neocons or a broader conflict in West Africa.
    • France should use diplomatic means to engage with the military leadership in Niger and find a fair solution, rather than worrying about the neocons or a wider war in West Africa.
    • The French civil service system used to assign lower-performing individuals to positions in West Africa, such as advising the uranium Ministry in Niger or assisting with administration in Senegal.
  • 15:58 The French president, Macron, has personal interests and is influenced by a powerful constituency in West Africa, which could lead to a potential conflict in the region.

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