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Top Three Videos – August 7, 2023

Mark Moss: Why Aren't the Markets Crashing - Quarterly Report
Mark Moss

Quick Summary Bullets:

Market Performance and Stability

  • “We’ve been misled and if you don’t understand how to think about this properly you’re never going to make it.”
  • Prices in the market have come back down to normal and have even gone up by 20% in the last month, indicating that the crash may not be as severe as expected.
  • While there is always a possibility of a market crash, currently the market is holding up well and showing signs of a healthy economy, unlike the crashes experienced during the dot-com boom and the 2008 banking crisis.
  • The market today doesn’t have one big sector at risk like in 2000 and 2008, indicating a more stable overall market.
  • Despite the worst financial market in over 50 years in 2022, stocks have rebounded and are now up 20% in 2023, officially entering a bull market.
  • Despite being only 4% away from the previous all-time high, the market’s rise has been fueled by a massive influx of money rather than organic growth.
  • The tech stocks, such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple, have performed incredibly well, with Apple now being a three trillion dollar company.
  • “They could keep this Market going way longer what do they say Marcus could stay a rational much longer than you can stay solvent so that’s what’s happening that’s around the world and a handful of charts.”

Government Influence and Spending

  • Jerome Powell’s decision to let inflation run hot and overshoot the target is controversial, but he believes it can be averaged out over a long period of time.
  • The U.S. government’s spending has significantly increased, with the fiscal spending going up by about 50% and remaining high even after the pandemic, potentially impacting the markets.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Despite predictions of a recession, experts are now less certain, with only 58% forecasting a recession, down from 67% last month, suggesting that the chances of a market crash are decreasing.
    • Mark Moss discusses the current state of the economy and why the markets have not crashed yet despite predictions of a recession.
    • Experts are divided on whether there will be a recession, with 58% forecasting a recession, down from 67% last month, indicating that the chances of a recession are decreasing.
  • 01:32 The Federal Reserve predicts a slim chance of a soft landing, while the rest of the FED staff predicts a US recession, highlighting the difference between the markets and the economy, with the debt to GDP ratio causing a decrease in economic growth and making it unlikely for the country to grow out of its debt, despite the central bank’s efforts.
    • The Federal Reserve predicts a slim chance of a soft landing, while the rest of the FED staff predicts a US recession, highlighting the difference between the markets and the economy.
    • The debt to GDP ratio is causing a decrease in economic growth, with GDP growth dropping from four percent per year in the 1960s to two percent today.
    • The trend line of economic growth is flat and decreasing, making it unlikely for the country to grow out of its debt, especially as the central bank tries to stimulate the economy.
    • The Federal Reserve is increasing its balance sheet and the government is engaging in deficit spending, but despite these actions, economic growth is not improving.
  • 05:14 The Fed plans to overshoot their inflation target to make up for low inflation, as discussed by the speaker who also asks for comments and refers to a previous video on forecasting.
    • Inflation has been low, but the Fed plans to overshoot their target to make up for it.
    • The speaker discusses the inflation rate and the possibility of overshooting the target, asking for comments, and mentions a previous video on forecasting.
  • 06:31 Despite a crash in oil prices, the market has rebounded and prices have returned to normal, with a recent 20% increase, suggesting that inflation will continue to rise.
    • The crash in oil prices is a major factor in the decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it is important to consider the historical context and the current rebound in prices.
    • Oil prices crashed due to a decrease in demand and the Biden Administration’s actions against inflation, but they are now going back up due to a decrease in strategic reserves and the Russia-Ukraine war.
    • Despite the expectation that sanctions on Russia would cause their oil production to decrease and prices to rise, Russia has actually increased their oil drilling and production, resulting in a small blip in their production and a spike in prices due to the imbalance in supply caused by the dumping of petroleum reserves by the United States.
    • Prices in the market have not crashed, but have returned to normal, with a recent increase of 20 percent, indicating that inflation is measured year over year and will likely continue to rise.
  • 10:24 The market is stable and not at risk of a major collapse, with job growth increasing and the tech sector recovering from layoffs, although there is still a possibility of a crash.
    • During the pandemic, technology companies experienced a surge in demand and hired excessively, leading to layoffs once the market normalized, but now the number of layoffs has returned to normal levels.
    • Job growth has been steadily increasing since the pandemic, with the tech sector recovering from layoffs and the overall market showing positive signs, although there is still a possibility of a crash.
    • The market is currently stable and not at risk of a major collapse like in 2000 and 2008, as there is no one big sector that is in danger, and the overall economy is doing well.
  • 13:10 The stock market is performing well in 2023, driven by a few tech stocks, and the Federal Reserve has taken proactive measures to prevent market crashes.
    • Stocks have rebounded and are performing well in 2023, with the S&P 500 up 20%, indicating that we are currently in a bull market.
    • We are currently in a bull market, with the S&P 500 being driven primarily by a few tech stocks, particularly Nvidia.
    • Tech stocks like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple have performed well, with Apple now being a three trillion dollar company, and the Federal Reserve’s role in driving the markets changed in 2008 with the implementation of quantitative easing.
    • The constant need to inflate the Ponzi system has led to the creation of new agencies and proactive measures by the Federal Reserve to prevent market crashes.
  • 16:43 The markets are not crashing because authorities are taking action and pumping the market higher, with the Federal Reserve creating new lending programs and the government increasing spending to prevent a crash, but the long-term consequences are uncertain.
    • Moss discusses how the markets are not crashing because whenever they start moving down, the authorities take action and pump the market higher, which is a shift in their approach.
    • The Federal Reserve continuously creates new lending programs in response to crises, such as the current issues in the commercial real estate mortgage market.
    • The government’s increased spending and the Federal Reserve’s proactive money pumping have prevented a market crash, but the long-term consequences of this fiscal policy remain uncertain.
  • 19:18 The market could continue to stay rational for a longer period of time, but it will eventually crash.

Will the BRICS Currency be Gold Backed? | How Will Western Nations Respond? | Alasdair Macleod
The Money Levels Show

Investing in extractive industries, particularly mining companies, and buying gold and silver can serve as a hedge against collapsing currencies and economic instability.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “They actually can go on to a gold standard and they may well do this in order to protect themselves from our collapsing currencies.”
  • The Russian and Chinese axis’s plans to increase investment throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America will contribute to the continued demand for commodities, while Western currencies face difficulties.
  • “What people should consider is hedging themselves out of that currency out of that credit potential crisis and the way you do that is you buy real money with no counterparty risk which is gold.”
  • “The idea is not to buy [gold] as an investment to sell at a profit later on, but to have it as a backup when everything else goes under, so you at least have something you can buy the things you need with.”
  • The BRICS currency is evolving from a vague concept to a new trade settlement currency based solely on gold, which is a significant development.
  • “A sound currency for this purpose for this Supernatural purpose actually does make an awful lot of sense.” – The importance of having a stable and valuable currency for exporters like Russia.
  • “The statements made by the Russian government news agency, RT, regarding the BRICS currency would not have been made without agreement from the top, indicating that there is serious consideration and planning behind it.”
  • Russia and China have the potential to go on a gold standard for their currencies, with Russia having over 10,000 tons of gold and China having adequate cover at 1.45 times, which could bring significant benefits to Russia.
  • “They [BRICS members] may well go on to a gold standard in order to protect themselves from our collapsing currencies because the Fiat era which started in 1971 has basically come to an end.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Individuals should consider investing in extractive industries, particularly mining companies, as Russia and China may adopt a gold standard to protect themselves from collapsing currencies, leading to increased demand for commodities and a potential shift of portfolio money into mining stocks.
    • Russia and China, as BRICS members, may adopt a gold standard to protect themselves from collapsing currencies, and individuals should prepare for the inevitable by taking certain actions.
    • Investments in extractive industries, particularly in mining companies, should be considered due to the increasing demand for commodities from the Russian and Chinese access, which will continue to hold up despite the difficulties faced by Western economies.
    • Precious metals mining stocks are currently undervalued and neglected, but as the demand for minerals and metals increases due to China and Russia’s actions, there will likely be a shift of portfolio money into mining stocks.
  • 04:28 Consider buying gold and silver as a hedge against the potential collapse of the Euro system and negative equity in central banks and the banking system.
    • The BRICS countries, representing a significant portion of the world’s population and GDP, are meeting in Johannesburg to discuss the extractive industries as a way to capitalize on their economic power.
    • Consider hedging yourself out of the risk in the Western currency credit system by buying gold and silver, as the central banks and banking system are in negative equity and there is a potential for a complete collapse of the Euro system.
  • 06:37 Invest in gold as a backup and hedge against risky credit, while also considering silver as a more affordable option; store your currency in insured vaults like gold money for protection.
    • Silver is seen as a more affordable option for the general public if the price of gold rises, but it is also considered volatile and risky, so many prefer to stick with gold.
    • Buy small amounts of gold as a backup for when everything else fails, and also invest in extractive industries and hedge out of risky credit by having a little bit of real money.
    • You can find reputable dealers or store your currency in fully insured vaults like gold money to protect your money.
  • 10:23 It is important for individuals to prioritize personal consumer debt and effectively manage it by communicating with banks and proposing payment plans to avoid foreclosure.
    • Personal consumer debt should be a top priority for individuals as it is crucial for financial wisdom and requires effective debt management.
    • If you owe money to a bank or have a mortgage you can’t pay, it is important to communicate with them and propose a payment plan rather than ignoring the issue, as most banks and financial companies are willing to help find a solution and foreclosure is not their desired outcome.
  • 12:42 A gold-backed currency is being proposed to the BRICS membership in August, driven by Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, to address the problems of converting currencies and provide a valuable currency for exports.
    • There has been talk about the upcoming BRICS meeting potentially announcing a gold-backed currency, which started when the West introduced sanctions against Russia and President Putin appointed Sergey Glaziev to look into providing a new currency for cross-border trade.
    • The Eurasian economic Union, consisting of Russia, China, and ex-Soviet states, was designed to facilitate trade between these nations and the speaker discusses the initial political challenges and progression of this concept.
    • A new trade settlement currency, based solely on gold, is being presented to the BRICS membership in August.
    • Nations want a valuable currency for exports, but the current system of converting currencies creates problems, so a sound currency for this purpose makes sense.
    • Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, as major energy exporters, are driving the push for a gold-backed currency, despite skepticism from others, and the demands of these energy exporters will likely determine the outcome.
  • 18:29 Countries like India may be incentivized to use the new BRICS currency due to the instability of their own currencies, while Russia and China, with their large gold reserves, could potentially back their currencies, leading to a thriving economy and lower interest rates.
    • Countries like India may be incentivized to use the new BRICS currency due to the instability of their own currencies, leading to a need for a sound currency for international trade.
    • Russia and China have enough gold reserves to potentially back their currencies, which could have sustainable benefits for Russia and both nations are the largest gold miners in the world.
    • The Russian ruble is losing purchasing power due to sanctions, but stabilizing the currency and implementing sound money policies could lead to a thriving economy with lower interest rates.
    • The tax system in Russia allows businesses to prosper without the need for budget deficits, unlike Western nations that have inefficient state machines and high welfare commitments.
  • 22:51 Brics countries may adopt gold standards to protect themselves from currency collapse, while Western nations may respond by producing their own energy; the speaker also criticizes politicians for damaging the economy but does not discuss the future of currencies.
    • Brics members may adopt gold standards to protect themselves from collapsing currencies, while Western Nations are likely to respond by producing their own energy and implementing solutions.
    • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Corporation Council have aligned with China and Russia because Western nations have expressed disinterest in their oil, and there is hope that common sense will prevail in the anti-oil movement.
    • Macleod discusses the challenges of replacing diesel with electricity for logistics in Europe and criticizes politicians for damaging the economy, but refrains from discussing the future of currencies.

What’s Going On In CRYPTO?! This Report REVEALS It ALL!!
Coin Bureau

The crypto market rebounded in the first half of 2023, with Bitcoin rising and Ethereum staking becoming popular, indicating a positive outlook for the market despite regulatory crackdowns and fluctuations in trading volume.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • Coingecko’s report highlights the success of Ethereum’s Chapel upgrade and the growing popularity of ETH staking as a core DeFi primitive for future development.
  • The total crypto market cap at the end of Q2 this year was 1.24 trillion, representing around a 50% increase year to date.
  • Bitcoin outperformed the overall crypto market in Q2, with a growth of 7.3 percent.
  • The analysis of Bitcoin in the report shows a 6.9% gain in Q2, with the cryptocurrency reaching a new high of over $30,000.
  • Bitcoin’s hash rate reached an all-time high in May, indicating a significant increase in computing power connected to the Bitcoin blockchain.
  • Meme coins like Pepe and AI Doge saw massive gains, with Pepe reaching a market cap of $1.8 billion and AI Doge seeing returns of up to 235x at its peak.
  • The crypto market has experienced significant recovery, with its market cap jumping from just over 0.8 trillion at the end of 2022 to around 1.2 trillion halfway through 2023.
  • Reports of crypto’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, indicating that the cryptocurrency market still has potential for growth and recovery.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The crypto market rebounded in the first half of 2023, with BTC rising and ETH staking becoming popular, while stable coins and spot trading dropped; regulatory crackdown in the US may have contributed to decreased trading volume.
    • The crypto market rebounded in the first half of 2023, with BTC rising, stable coins and spot trading dropping, and eth staking becoming popular, as detailed in a report by coing. Gecko.
    • Coin Gecko’s report discusses Ethereum’s successful Chapel upgrade and the growing popularity of ETH staking as a core DeFi primitive, allowing users to access and potentially unstake over 18 million staked ETH.
    • Crypto’s total market cap increased by 50% in Q2, with trading volume decreasing by 42.7%, potentially due to regulatory crackdown in the United States, and the report also examines the market dominance of the top 30 cryptocurrencies.
  • 03:46 Bitcoin dominates as investors shift from altcoins to BTC and ETH, while Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash rise in rankings; Q2 sees ETH dominance increase, BTC and ETH prices rise, and BNB, XRP, and ADA suffer losses; Bitcoin defies market trends with 7.3% growth.
    • Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash saw significant increases in their rankings after being listed on edx markets, while BTC continues to dominate as investors shift from altcoins to BTC and ETH in a bear market.
    • In Q2 of 2021, ETH dominance increased by 1%, BTC and ETH prices rose while BNB, XRP, and ADA experienced double-digit losses, top five play-to-earn tokens fell by 30-40%, stable coins saw a 3.5% market cap drop with USDT expanding its market share, and crypto was compared to mainstream index funds using the S&P 500 stock index.
    • The S&P 500 increased while the total crypto market cap remained flat in Q2, with Bitcoin defying the overall market and experiencing growth of 7.3 percent.
  • 07:09 BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin ETF, SEC sued Binance and Coinbase, Bitcoin’s Q2 performance was strong with increased institutional interest, hash rate reached all-time high, Ethereum saw gains with Chappella upgrade.
    • BlackRock filing for a Bitcoin ETF is discussed, along with an overview of the SEC’s lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, and an analysis of Bitcoin’s Q2 performance.
    • Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF filing and institutional interest in crypto, along with the rise of ordinals and introduction of BRC 20 tokens, have contributed to Bitcoin’s price increase, while its hash rate reached an all-time high in May due to increased demand and transaction fees.
    • BTC outperformed most major asset classes in Q2, except for the NASDAQ and S&P 500, while Ethereum saw a 6% gain and the Chappella upgrade led to a 30% increase in ETH staking.
  • 10:13 Lido remains the top cryptocurrency, while SEC regulations caused a 36.2% drop in Kraken’s staking product, Ethereum’s burn rate increased, and UniSwap, MetaMask, and Xen projects gained popularity in Q2, while sandwich attacks decreased but sandwich bots manipulated prices for higher earnings; meme coins like Pepe and AI Doge saw gains in D5, while defy tokens experienced a market cap drop, except for fixed interest and liquid staking protocols which rose.
    • Lido remains the top cryptocurrency, while Kraken’s staking product dropped by 36.2% due to SEC regulations, and Ethereum’s burn rate increased after the mid-May meme, limiting the number of coins in circulation, with UniSwap, MetaMask, and Xen projects also gaining popularity in Q2.
    • Maximal extractable value transaction volumes fell by 87% in the quarter, but researchers still earned $27.2 million, as sandwich attacks decreased overall but sandwich bots made more on average by manipulating cryptocurrency prices.
    • Comparable activity is illegal in tradify but is allowed in D5, where meme coins like Pepe and AI Doge saw significant gains, while defy tokens experienced a drop in market cap, except for fixed interest protocols which rose nearly 20% and liquid staking protocols increased their market share.
  • 13:54 NFT trading volume decreased in Q2, with Solana declining, while Ethereum remained dominant; Open C faced controversy, new marketplaces supporting Bitcoin gained market share, and NFT lending saw massive growth with Blend’s launch.
    • The authors discuss lsd5 protocols and liquid staking derivatives, as well as the increase in cross-chain bridge liquidity due to new network launches and potential airdrops, with Wormhole’s portal token Bridge being the top gainer.
    • NFT trading volume decreased in the second quarter, with Solana experiencing a significant decline, while Ethereum maintained its dominance; Open C declined due to controversial actions, and new marketplaces supporting Bitcoin oracles gained market share, while notable NFT collections had mixed results; there was massive growth in NFT lending with the launch of Blend.
  • 16:31 Trading volume in the crypto market decreased by 20% in Q2, with Binance’s market share dropping to 52%, while decentralized exchanges saw a decline in trading volume despite the meme coin season, and centralized exchanges had a slight increase in open interest.
    • Trading volume in the cryptocurrency market decreased by nearly 20% in Q2, with Binance’s market share dropping from 63% to 52% due to the removal of zero fee trading for USDT pairs and regulatory pressure.
    • Trading volume in the crypto market decreased significantly in May, with both overall trading volume and trading volumes on decentralized exchanges (dexes) experiencing a decline, despite no noticeable increase in trading volume on dexes during the meme coin season.
    • Arbitrum and BSC had significant market share growth in Q2, while there was a decrease in overall trading volume and a slight increase in open interest across centralized Perpetual exchanges, with centralized exchanges being much larger than decentralized protocols in terms of open interest.
  • 19:29 Despite a minor decrease in crypto trading, the overall market has seen significant recovery and growth, with Binance’s market share returning to previous levels and the NFT market improving, indicating a positive outlook for the crypto market.
    • The Q2 report shows a minor decrease in crypto trading, but when compared to previous quarters, the overall market has seen significant recovery and growth.
    • Binance’s market share has returned to levels seen in the second half of 2022, despite facing scrutiny from the SEC, the NFT market has improved since June 2022, and BTC has shown mixed performance but the overall outlook for the crypto market is not as bleak as it may appear.
  • 21:32 Crypto’s demise has been exaggerated, but there is still a long way to go before reaching new all-time highs and a multi-trillion dollar market cap.
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