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Top Three Videos – August 7, 2024

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Peter St. Onge & Tom Luongo: Geopolitical Risks, Market Meltdowns and the Madness of Crowds (Aug 6, 2024)

VRIC Media...

Summary

 
 

Geopolitical tensions, market meltdowns, and the potential shift towards gold-backed currencies are creating significant risks for the global financial system.

 

Geopolitical Risks and Escalating Tensions

 
  • The madness of crowds can lead to market meltdowns and geopolitical risks.
  • The intersection between geopolitics, politics, and markets is becoming increasingly significant as countries like Russia, China, and Iran seek to create alternate payment systems outside of the dollar.
  • The involvement of the US in instructing Ukrainian Weapons Systems is a concerning escalation that could lead to a major international conflict.
  • The merchants of Crisis have become more predatory since covid, escalating geopolitical risks and market meltdowns.
  • The geopolitical game of chicken between the EU, US, and Russia is a potential threat to the global financial system.
  • Geopolitical tensions between Israel, Iran, Russia, and China could potentially escalate into a hot conflict that nobody wants to deal with.
  • The unstoppable train of geopolitical risks and market meltdowns is a reality that cannot be ignored.
  • “We’re going to see a rise in authoritarianism in the west…once all the other stuff doesn’t work anymore. All that’s left is the power of the gun.”
     

Shift Towards Tangible Assets and Alternative Payment Systems

 
  • Gold tends to dip early in market crashes, but if you’re expecting a “Wile E. Coyote moment,” it’s worth taking a look at gold price movement.
  • The current market situation screams massive liquidity crisis, with people moving out of speculative assets and into tangible assets like gold and commodities.
  • The potential shift towards currencies backed by gold, such as the idea of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve, could shake up the geopolitical landscape.
  • The implication of the West not collapsing is that everyone will have to make their move towards gold as a hedge against the current governmental system and currencies.
     

Market Meltdowns and Economic Downturn

 
  • Despite expectations, the market crash or economic downturn has been looming, with massive government outlays preventing the fall.
  • The potential for stagflation and commodity cost inflation could lead to a global market meltdown.

 

John Rubino: Is This The "Everything Bust" Of The "Everything Bubble"? (August 6, 2024)

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

 
 

The potential end of the real estate bull market, collapsing dollar and debt market, and potential emergency rate cuts by central banks indicate an impending financial crisis, and individuals should prepare by diversifying their investments and acquiring practical skills.

 

Economic impact of real estate market downturn

 
  • Central banks will panic as the real estate industry faces problems, pulling down stocks even further.
  • The collapsing dollar and debt market are significant factors in the potential end of the real estate bull market.
  • The housing market downturn could lead to panic and emergency measures by central banks, impacting other sectors like commercial real estate and stocks.
  • The recent pullbacks in the stock market could be the end of the everything bubble, signaling the potential for an everything bust.
  • Gold and silver historically have done well in financial crises, despite being smacked down along with equities.
  • Potentially we make a lot of money if we do the investment part of this right, it’s a world full of opportunities.
     

Threats to the stability of the financial system

 
  • The possibility of banks getting stressed and the potential for backdoor bailouts by the FED: “If the banks are getting stressed because they’re the bag holders on these commercial real estate loans that are going upside down, will that just get papered over through the back door bailouts by the FED?”
  • The emergency rate cuts reveal the lie about the strength of the economy, contributing to its breakdown.
  • The potential for a crackup boom where people lose faith in the financial system and the value of money plunges, leading to a breakdown of the financial system.
  • The BRICS countries are making moves to bypass the dollar and could threaten its hegemony, leading to a falling dollar and rising inflation in the US.
  • It’s becoming abundantly clear that the structures based on lies and manipulations are not sustainable.
 

J. Doyne Farmer: Making Sense of Chaos: A Revolution in Economic Theory (Aug 5, 2024)

Hidden Forces...

Summary

 
 

Complexity economics applies complexity science to economic problems, offering insights traditional economics cannot, focusing on interactions of agents and the importance of fundamental theoretical models for understanding complex systems.

 

Economic Frameworks and Complexity Science

 
  • Economic frameworks that treat the economy as an ecological network and series of metabolic processes can provide valuable insights into investment styles, risk management, technological disruption, and policymaking.
  • Complexity science explores emergent properties that are qualitatively different from the properties of the building blocks that make up a system, such as the human brain or the economy.
  • The team’s adventurous mindset and desire to go against authority led them to beat the house in Vegas, despite being graduate students.
  • The interactions of individual components can cause rich, complex behavior, such as bird flocking or schools of fish, without the need for religion.
  • The rise of complexity science in economics is driven by the ability to do things that mainstream economics can’t.
  • Complexity economics offers a different approach to understanding cause-effect relationships in the economy, moving away from the traditional assumptions of standard economic theory.
  • Predicting the future requires a model that accounts for fundamental changes, not just historical data.
  • Realistic models of aspiration level adaptation can lead to situations with significantly more buyers or sellers, disrupting traditional economic theories.
  • The economy can be viewed as an ecological network and a metabolic process, allowing for the prediction of risk in financial markets and the real economy.
     

Chaos Theory and Unpredictability in Economics

 
  • Chaos in scientific terms refers to a system with sensitive dependence on initial conditions, making it practically unpredictable due to tiny differences in starting points leading to huge differences in outcomes.
  • The 1987 crash is an example of endogenous motion at work in financial markets, with no particularly interesting outside news on the day of the crash.
 
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