China and India, with a combined population of 2.4+ billion, are accumulating gold as a “plan B” reserve to stabilize the financial system if CBDCs fail to gain trust or adoption.
The implementation of India’s digital rupee pilot in 4 cities could potentially push 3 billion people onto the CBDC system, representing a significant percentage of the global population.
Bankers aim to get everyone banked and tracked, forcing the unbanked into the system to tax and track all transactions, according to David Morgan.
A “carrot and stick” approach may be used to encourage CBDC adoption, potentially introducing a gold-backed CBDC if initial uptake is slow.
The 2025 Fed meeting is expected to cut rates by 25%, potentially leading to a lackluster first quarter for metals, according to Morgan’s weekly perspective.
The S&P is showing signs of a manic bubble with 57 new highs in 2024, cyclically adjusted PE ratios above 38, and a record-high Euphoria meter.
70% of the S&P is concentrated in just 7 stocks, with examples like Apple trading at 10x sales and Walmart at 39x earnings, indicating significant overvaluation.
Mutual fund managers have only 1% cash, potentially forcing them to sell overvalued stocks if investors redeem, risking a market crash.
Warren Buffett is building cash and avoiding stocks due to overvaluation, with his Buffett indicator showing the highest level in history.
A massive separation in consumer sentiment on stocks vs. income prospects since the 1980s suggests a disconnect between market performance and economic reality.
The concentration of 75% of the stock market in 60% ETFs and 40% S&P 500 could lead to a sharp correction if investors suddenly sell due to insufficient buyers.
Corporate debt refinancing of $15 trillion in the next two years may reduce profit margins and lead to layoffs, impacting the overall market.
Trump’s potential economic plans, including tariffs and cuts, could lead to inflation, job losses, and short-term pain, causing market volatility and economic challenges in 2025.
Mass deportation of illegal immigrants could potentially alleviate housing shortages, as a study indicates a deficit of ~7 million low-income rental units in the US, roughly equivalent to the number occupied by undocumented residents.
Construction costs have surged 55% since 2019, contributing significantly to overall housing expenses and inflation.
Property tax rates, often calculated as a percentage of home value, can feel like “renting the house you own,” with local governments maintaining rates despite rising home prices, leading to increased revenue.
Various regulations including permits, zoning, land use, building codes, and green mandates have substantially increased home prices, with environmental requirements alone adding $31,000 to the cost of a home.
Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since pre-pandemic levels, resulting in average monthly payments of almost $3,000, which is a major factor in current high housing costs.
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