The US stock market is approaching trigger points for a major shift, potentially leading to a protracted recovery after a significant decline, based on momentum structural analysis.
Gold and silver have broken out of a 3-year congestion zone, with gold at $2,000+ and silver at $35, positioning them for substantial moves as markets shift.
The Fed’s focus on unemployment over inflation, combined with rising jobless claims in certain sectors, may lead to rate cuts despite rising inflation.
The stock market’s 15-year bull run has been fueled by record money supply growth and near-zero interest rates, potentially leading to a protracted bust in the economy.
While the NASDAQ 100 has surged, non-tech sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials have weakened significantly from their post-election highs.
The Eurozone faces challenges, with Germany’s Dax index vulnerable to a major downturn, while China’s Shanghai composite struggles due to a real estate bubble breaking.
The US dollar is poised for a potential collapse, with a close below 104 in early 2023 indicating a major trend change and a possible 10-year momentum structure breakdown.
The Bloomberg commodity index is historically cheap and due for a rebound, trading near 100, which is 25-30% below its 2008 and 2011 highs, indicating potential for a significant upturn in 2025.
Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model forecasts a global economic depression by 2032, driven by debt defaults, interconnected economies, and career politicians’ concerns.
The US is on an unsustainable debt system where $1 trillion in interest expenditures from 2022 will be paid with 2023 interest, compounding the debt and potentially leading to defaults when confidence collapses.
The Federal Reserve is struggling due to the collapse of Keynesian economics, as raising interest rates to reduce inflation doesn’t work when the government is the biggest borrower.
Decentralization and respect for individual sovereignty are crucial to preventing global unrest, as disillusionment with governments leads to increased impactful events.
NATO is seen as a threat to peace, as it must continue to beat war drums to remain relevant and fund its activities, according to Armstrong.
Centralized governments historically fail, as exemplified by Russia under Stalin and the Middle East after the Ottoman Empire’s collapse.
The Biden administration is allegedly preparing for civil war by disarming states and controlling the National Guard, which can be used against civilians under the 1878 act.
In a monetary crisis, tangible assets like real estate, gold, and silver make the transition easier, while Bitcoin and other digital currencies are considered unreliable.
Combining 25% Bitcoin and 75% gold in a portfolio creates a building block similar to an equity mandate, allowing for rebalancing and options writing to capitalize on Bitcoin’s high volatility.
Writing call options on Bitcoin at 40% exposure and put options at 10% underperformance generates cash flow from volatility, enabling investors to collect premiums while maintaining strategic allocation.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio should be rebalanced to 60% productive assets (stocks and bonds) and 40% hard assets (gold, Bitcoin, commodities), with 10% in performance gold and 5% in Bitcoin.
The Austrian School of Economics, founded by Carl Menger in Vienna around 150 years ago, emphasizes individual actions and human behavior as the basis for economic thought processes.
Bitcoin ETFs have a more significant impact on market prices than gold ETFs, with 1 million coins in the first year compared to 3,000 tons of gold, relating to over 5 percentage points of Bitcoin’s stock.
Bitcoin’s monetary status and lack of industrial uses make it more volatile than gold, which has industrial and jewelry uses, with 30% of gold stock being illiquid compared to 20% of Bitcoin in ETFs.
Adding silver to a 40% gold portfolio can enhance returns by 10-20% without significantly increasing risk, while Bitcoin provides the most diversification due to its low correlation with gold and silver.
Gold performs better in debt deflation and severe deflation, while Bitcoin excels in smooth deflation due to innovation, highlighting their different responses to inflation and deflation risks.
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