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Top Three Videos – December 28, 2023

Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart: Overbought Stock Market Likely To Pullback, Then Power Even Higher (Dec.23, 2023)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The market is currently overbought and likely to experience a pullback before potentially powering even higher, and it is important to analyze the data for what it is rather than what you want it to be.

 

Market Analysis and Predictions

 
  • The market is extremely overbought on multiple metrics, indicating a potential pullback before powering even higher.
  • The rally has broadened out due to portfolio rebalancing, with bond yields dropping sharply and investors needing to buy up a broader base of equities to maintain portfolio weight.
  • “The crashes that we kind of repeatedly see in these meme stocks and things like that that’s going to happen again so when this rally ends those stocks like Arc ETF type stocks and I’m not picking on Kathy Wood. It’s just her ETF. It’s a very good representation of those poor quality fundamental companies that are a story stock rather than than a fundamental investment.”
  • Despite negative leading economic index and yield curve inversions, the process of reaching a recessionary outcome may take longer due to improving liquidity and potential Fed rate cuts.
  • “The fed’s got themselves in a very tough position by allowing the market to now take control of the narrative.”
  • “Market’s going to go to 5400 5200 whatever it is um. It’s all bullish from here.”
  • All the signs were there for a recession, we just didn’t have the trigger, and that trigger was basically the pandemic when it showed up and all of a sudden.
  • Analyzing the data for what it is rather than what you want it to be is very important, especially when dealing with tail ends of the bell curve.
  • “Overbought Stock Market Likely To Pullback, Then Power Even Higher”
     

Investment Strategies and Risk Management

 
  • “You got to buy stuff when you don’t want to buy it. You got to sell stuff when you don’t want to sell it right.”
  • Avoiding downturns is important, as staying invested through a 50% drawdown in 2008 would have resulted in a 232% increase in investment value.

Does Anyone Know What the Fed Is Doing? (Dec. 21, 2023)...

Radio Rothbard...

Summary

 

The Federal Reserve’s actions and the state of the economy are causing uncertainty and concern about the appropriate time to lower interest rates, potentially leading to a recession and inflation challenges.

 

  • The question of whether the economy is really as solid as Powell says it is, or if it is weaker than he says it is, raises concerns about the appropriate time to be lowering interest rates.
  • A significant war breaking out in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, or China could cause inflation to go up, challenging the mainstream financial commentary.
  • The Fed’s inflation target is like a “five-year plan that the Soviets might put in place” and has caused trouble in the past.
  • The FED’s historical record of being off its own projections of policy creates contradictory information and uncertainty in the market.
  • A Fed pivot at this time of the business cycle is really a crisis response team effort, indicating that the economy is going into a recession.
  • Mainstream economists’ reputation may suffer as the empirical data shows the Fed’s actions leading to recession, not a soft landing.
  • Some people are overlaying the current trajectory on the trajectory of the 1970s, predicting a potential resurge in inflation if interest rates are forced down too quickly.
  • Declaring that the war on inflation has been won is problematic, especially with CPI rates not reflecting the reality of grocery bills and housing costs.
  • The covid stimulus led to some people getting “Filthy Rich” and deciding to drop out of the labor force and retire early, impacting the economy and markets.

2024 Economic Forecast: Lutz & Rubino on Fed Policies, Gold's Surge, and Geopolitical Risks (Dec.20, 2023)...

Financial Survival Network...

Summary

 

The FED’s reversal in course and the potential spike in government interest costs could lead to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold, potentially benefiting junior miners and high-quality exploration companies, as well as physical commodity ETFs.

 

 
  • The FED has reversed course, what happened, what’s going to happen, what does it mean for you.
  • The scariest scenario is the spike in government interest costs, leading to massive deficits solely because interest expense is high and rising.
  • The repeated resistance at the $2000 level and the sudden spike to $2175 in gold’s price highlights its volatility and potential as a safe-haven asset.
  • The less trust in the broader world, the more people seek Safe Haven assets to protect them from the clear mismanagement in the monetary system.
  • Gold going to $2,200 an ounce could alleviate tough times for junior miners and make their mining scenarios profitable.
  • High quality exploration companies could potentially be a 5 or 10 bagger, making it a potentially lifechanging investment.
  • Physical commodity ETFs are more attractive due to nationalizations driving up prices, making them a good investment option.
  • Physical ETFs create a self-perpetuating process by raising money and taking product off the market, which in turn raises the price.

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