Gold’s price rise signals major weakness in credit markets and paper assets, highlighting its emerging role as a unit of account.
A 4x increase in gold being stood for delivery on COMEX this year indicates a stand for delivery crisis in the gold futures market.
The US Treasury’s gold reserves of 8,132 tons are likely incomplete, creating uncertainty and potential for foreign-held gold confiscation.
The dollar index, ranging between 100-110 for two years, risks a breakdown below 105, potentially collapsing to 80 or 70.
A stock market break could trigger investors to flee to gold, potentially causing gold to launch vertically within a 3-month period.
Silver is expected to outperform gold, with its current gold-silver ratio near 90 indicating it’s priced as an industrial metal rather than money.
If silver’s value vs gold breaks from 1.1% to 2%, it could reach $60 or higher, even if gold remains at $3,000.
Gold miners are historically undervalued with a 5.5% spread vs gold, signaling an imminent technical breakout.
The collapse of paper assets and credit markets is anticipated, with gold serving as a safe haven.
A vertical launch in gold prices is expected within a 3-month period, triggered by a stock market break.
Silver and gold miners are poised for significant value increases due to their current undervaluation and impending technical breakout.
The real CPI is 10.8% year-over-year in January 2025, with the headline CPI being 8% lower than if reported using 1980-81 methods, due to changes in components and weightings to suppress inflation.
Gold prices are running close to the alternate CPI measure, which is 64.6% higher than the headline CPI over the last five years, serving as a fair surrogate for actual inflation.
The money supply under Fed control is at a 57-year high, triggering inflation despite 1.5% year-over-year GDP growth, with supply growth still 128% above normal.
The Fed’s primary function is maintaining banking system stability, taking precedence over domestic economy and inflation control.
Despite apparent GDP growth, key indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing are lagging or negative year-over-year, signaling underlying economic weakness.
Continued high money supply and inflationary pressures could lead to hyperinflation and potential dollar value collapse, with gold serving as a key indicator of these risks.
Record gold imports of 13M oz from London to US since November 2020, with vault holdings increasing by 75-80%, signaling unprecedented demand.
February 2023 saw a historic 59,219 gold contracts (5.9M oz) and 14M oz silver standing for delivery on COMEX, surpassing the previous June 2020 record.
Gold revaluation, a potential Treasury boost of $1T for every $4K increase in gold price, is advocated by central bank members and US senators.
Institutional investors are avoiding GLD while favoring SPDR Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) and SPDR Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), indicating a shift towards more legitimate metal ownership.
Warren Buffett’s record cash pile of $350B+ in short-term Treasuries signals overvalued markets, with his cash exceeding all but 30 public company market caps.
Record insider selling (6 EV sold for every 1 bought) contrasts with massive COMEX gold deliveries, suggesting smart money accumulation of gold.
Silver’s 5B oz naked short position, trading 3.5x annual mine supply at 3B oz/day, poses significant risks to banks as entities stand for delivery in London and Shanghai markets.
The cup and handle formation on the 50-year silver chart indicates a potential massive price spike in silver.
BRICS countries are systematically accumulating silver, with India importing 900M oz in the last 4 years, while Russia and China buy up dore and concentrate in Latin America.
JP Morgan, despite a $920M fine for market manipulation, retains custodianship of SLV and GLD ETFs, controlling vaults with more gold than half the G20 countries.
Naked shorting on LBMA or COMEX is increasingly risky, with potential for large commercial banks to fail to deliver, potentially triggering a daisy chain in interconnected markets.
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