The Federal Reserve’s rosy outlook for 2025, projecting positive GDP growth and moderating inflation, contrasts sharply with Austrian economists’ concerns about overheated 20+ year stock market returns artificially propped up by Fed money creation.
The US has reached a record $37 trillion national debt and faces a projected $3.5 trillion deficit in the coming fiscal year, with debt across multiple sectors (credit card, student, corporate, real estate, auto) showing no signs of decreasing.
All-time low housing affordability in the US, driven by high mortgage rates and low housing supply, is making homeownership unaffordable and unavailable for many, potentially impacting entrepreneurship and economic growth.
High and increasing prices of growth stocks are attracting investors of all ages, making it difficult for younger people to invest at reasonable prices, potentially exacerbating generational wealth disparities.
The Federal Reserve has reduced its interest rate cut projections from 4 in 2024 to 2 in 2025, signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy despite their optimistic economic outlook.
Central banks are accumulating physical gold at an unprecedented rate, with recent numbers twice the 12-month moving average, indicating a significant shift in monetary strategy and potential loss of faith in fiat currencies.
Insider stock selling has reached a 6:1 ratio of sellers to buyers, while Warren Buffett holds $40+ billion in cash, suggesting a bearish outlook among market insiders despite public optimism.
A potential 2025 downturn resembling the 1929 Great Depression is forecasted, with experts warning of a system-wide insolvency and a “great taking” that could leave many with nothing.
The banking system is attempting to de-risk but remains vulnerable to collapse due to debt saturation and credit bubbles, with the potential for widespread business failures and bank collapses leading to a credit contraction.
In 2024, gold rose 26-27% while money supply increased only 3%, indicating declining faith in the dollar and positioning gold as a tangible asset to hedge against currency devaluation.
China, Saudi Arabia, and India are accumulating gold through various means, including direct purchases from miners and use of sovereign wealth funds, often exceeding reported figures.
Rising bond yields in 2025 are expected to crash equities and make mortgage costs unaffordable, potentially undermining residential property as collateral and triggering a housing market crisis.
The US faces potential financial instability with a record $584 billion spending in October and November 2024, while the Fed’s efforts to stabilize the system may “kill the dollar” as foreigners become reluctant to fund the US deficit at higher interest rates.
Bitcoin represents a fixed supply asset that imports the integrity of physics into socioeconomics, making it incorruptible and unmonopolizable, thus solving the fundamental money problem.
As an emergent phenomenon of trade, money metaphorizes time in terms of value, activating the ritual of trade across civilizations and embodying tokenized human labor energy.
Central banks engage in legal counterfeiting through quantitative easing, creating an asymmetry where they print money without expending labor, stealing from the poor and working class.
Bitcoin’s halving cycle every 4 years reduces newly issued supply, putting upward pressure on price, with price waves seemingly geometrically related to these halvings.
Bitcoin functions as a new form of social institution that forces compliance with its laws, making all users equal regardless of human affairs, embodying the ideal of equality under the law.
The perfect integrity and material incentives of Bitcoin inspire personal transformation and inner work, aligning with pursuits of meaning and happiness.
Bitcoin’s decentralized governance and resistance to attacks by centralized powers demonstrate its status as a battle-hardened proven decentralized money.
As the internet of money, Bitcoin enables frictionless global commerce with low transaction costs and fast settlement times, allowing for cross-border transactions and micropayments.
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