The stock market, gold, and real estate are in a stage 3 top phase, with the stock market close to topping, gold having little upside left, and real estate prices dropping faster than expected.
A potential 2025 market crash could lead to a year-long correction in precious metals, causing gold and silver to pull back and potentially take 12-18 months to find a bottom.
Gold may correct 40-50% before moving up 2-3x in the next bear market, while the US dollar could reach $1.55-$1.70 per CAD in 2025, becoming expensive for other currencies.
The energy sector is expected to be bearish, with oil potentially reaching $40-$50 per barrel in 2024, driven by supply and slowing demand.
Chris Vermeulen is neutral to bullish on gold and silver short-term, expecting sideways or slightly higher movement over the next 1-2 months, but awaits a reset and pullback in late 2024 or early 2025 before buying.
If shorting one asset class in 2025, Vermeulen recommends the energy sector, particularly dividend stocks, which he expects to be heavily impacted when the economy turns.
The Buffett indicator, measuring market valuation against GDP, has reached an all-time high of 202%, signaling potential severe market correction and 0% future returns according to Warren Buffett.
Gold serves as the ultimate anti-fiat solution in a fiat world, maintaining purchasing power over thousands of years while currencies trend towards zero value.
Central banks face potential collapse due to bad debts and non-performing loans, leading to massive money printing and a looming banking crisis.
The banking system is extremely weak with appalling capital asset ratios and non-performing loans, making physical gold held outside the banking system crucial for wealth protection.
Silver is considered an excellent value at $30 per ounce, expected to appreciate faster than gold but with higher volatility.
Homelessness in the US increased by 18% nationally in 2024, with a 24% rise outside California, challenging the effectiveness of the “housing first” policy.
The monocausal explanation of homelessness based solely on housing costs is problematic, as it overlooks significant factors like substance abuse and mental illness.
Chronic homelessness, accounting for 30% of the homeless population, is strongly linked to substance abuse and mental illness, requiring more than just housing solutions.
California’s harm reduction policies in Housing First, allowing addiction without mandatory treatment, have led to overdose deaths in permanent supportive housing, with over half of homeless overdose deaths occurring in these units.
In California, overregulation has made building affordable housing unprofitable, leading developers to focus on luxury units and exacerbating the housing crisis.
Private sector housing production could help address homelessness, but housing activists often overlook the impact of regulations on construction costs and market-rate housing potential.
Decriminalization policies and low enforcement of theft laws in cities like San Francisco and Portland attract homeless drug users from other areas, with a study finding 60% of homeless people in San Francisco were from outside the state.
Texas’s approach of cheaper housing and emphasis on treatment for drug addiction and mental illness results in lower homelessness rates, with only 44% unsheltered compared to California’s 66%.
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