In a republic, laws should be made by elected representatives in Congress, not through presidential executive orders, which resembles dictatorship without public input.
NATO is viewed as a threat to world peace, existing solely to oppose other nations and dependent on conflict for relevance.
The digital ID system is designed to restrict movement and prevent the spread of ideas and revolutions, serving as a tool to control and monitor citizens.
A nation’s wealth is created by its people’s productivity, not by gold reserves or land, as demonstrated by Germany and Japan’s post-World War II economic rise.
Canada’s Liberal Party is pushing a woke agenda including shutting down fossil fuels, risking Alberta’s economy and leading to widespread unemployment.
Turkey is attempting to resurrect the Ottoman Empire, with its involvement in Syria’s conflict and Erdogan’s public statements about leading the Arab world.
Ukraine’s Zelensky is portrayed as a dictator who suspended elections, while the West allegedly wants the war to continue, according to Armstrong Economics.
Putin is described as restrained and smart in the Ukraine conflict, recognizing it as a setup to provoke Russian intervention, while NATO is accused of trying to provoke Russia into attacking NATO territory.
The return of “bond vigilantes” is undermining the Fed’s inflation control efforts, as investors reject low-yielding bonds and drive up yields, challenging the Fed’s monetary policy.
In 1981, the Fed’s interest rate cut from 20% to 10% caused 10-year yields to rise to 16%, coined as “bond vigilantes” by Ed Yard.
The bond market is rejecting the Fed’s inflation-fighting policy of cutting interest rates while the economy grows strongly, indicating bond vigilantes are walking away from bonds.
The US economy is growing at 2-2.5%, poised to accelerate with Trump Administration policies, potentially leading to inflation and interest rate cuts rejected by the bond market.
Germany’s economy struggles due to high energy costs after Russia cut off gas supplies, while China’s economy is weak with 5% GDP growth, the lowest in 50 years.
The US stock market is fully valued at 200%+ market cap to GDP, with forward earnings estimates in the low 20s and Schiller PE ratios of 38-38, indicating low future returns.
Stock picking and active management may become more important for investors seeking returns above inflation, as the 2020-2022 bull run spoiled investors for 7% average returns.
A 40/20/40 portfolio structure from the 1980s-1990s may need adjustment, with more lower-volatility bonds providing a “backbone” for returns due to positive stock/bond correlations.
Bonds at 5% coupon are now safer with less price movement and higher returns of 5-6% over the next several years, compared to the 15-20% losses in 2022.
The S&P 500 is heavily concentrated in just 7 stocks known as the “mag 7,” making up a third of the index and potentially leading to significant market downturns if they underperform.
Nvidia is considered the most important stock to watch in 2025, as its AI chip sales impact the performance of other major tech companies, creating a “single giant blob of interconnected companies.”
The average investor under 40 is a speculator rather than an investor, taking on excessive risk with 70%+ of their financial assets in stocks.
80% of the US stock market is owned by people 55+, with 30-40% by those 70+, indicating a telling statistic about age demographics of stock market ownership.
In a 3% inflation world, 5% yields are considered normal for a 2% real rate, with the US economy now in a higher inflation world, not sub-2% inflation.
The core CPI rate has been above 3% for 44 months, with estimates suggesting it will stay above that number in December and January, indicating the Fed’s inflation expectations may be too low.
US debt projected to reach $40+ trillion by 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 3:1, creating only $1 of growth for every $3 borrowed.
Corporate tax cuts and tariffs are reducing revenue and increasing retaliatory trade effects, exacerbating the growing budget deficit and national debt.
Store closures by chains like Walgreens, CVS, and Dollar Tree will trigger a knock-on effect on commercial real estate, causing vacancies and impacting loan payments.
Commercial loan delinquencies are at the highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, with a “double whammy” of problem loans extended and then becoming delinquent again.
The FED faces pressure to address debt and delinquencies, potentially leading to backdoor changes in policy and more rate cuts than previously discussed by mid-2025.
FED must consider a slowing economy with flatline growth adjusted by inflation, even with lingering inflation at 2.5-3%.
FED’s supposed independence is compromised by collusion with other central banks like ECB and BoE, following the FED’s lead in cutting rates.
Tariffs on imports from China and Canada increase costs for companies like Walmart and Costco, leading to price rises, lower consumption, and potential bankruptcies.
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