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Top Three Videos – July 1 2023

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Economic Outlook and Precious Metals Market | Monthly Wrap-Up with Bob Thompson | June 2023
Sprott Money

Key insights

  • Bob Thompson discusses the first half of the year and the second half of the year in the Monthly Wrap-Up, indicating a comprehensive analysis of the economic outlook and precious metals market.
  • The central bank’s decision to raise interest rates is driven by the desire to lower expectations of inflation, rather than solely relying on actual rate hikes, indicating the importance of perception in economic policy.
  • “We’re in for a ’70s type of decade here…that’s a great thing for metals and minerals.”
  • The price of gold has performed well, up 5% on the year, making it one of the best-performing assets, except for a few stocks on the NASDAQ.
  • The analogy of using a GPS to navigate traffic as a representation of the unpredictable nature of the economy highlights the complexity and uncertainty involved in economic forecasting.
  • Despite having 400 PhDs and a massive budget, the Fed’s forecasting abilities have been surpassed by individuals like Stanley Druckenmiller and Eric, who were able to predict major events like recessions and the banking crisis.
  • “In the last 110 years, there’s been 200 million ounces of gold come out of the Abitibi region, absolutely incredible.”
  • “Sentiment’s really bad. Stay in the slow lane, stay here. It’s gonna become the fast lane pretty soon. And when it does, you wanna be there. You gotta be there.”

Andrew Maguire: The Apocalyptic 8000-Tonne Gold Miscalculation. Live From The Vault Ep:129
Kinesis Money

Andrew Maguire urges individuals to take action and secure real bullion as soon as possible due to the potential revaluation of gold, the increasing accumulation of gold by central banks, and the possibility of a market crash.

  • 00:00 Take action to secure real bullion as soon as possible due to the possibility of a crash and the Fed’s unpreparedness for a gold revaluation, as competing central banks accumulate gold and the price could reach $6,000 per ounce, while a potential Black Swan event involving the Russian nuclear Arsenal is discussed.
    • Take action to secure real bullion as soon as possible due to the possibility of printing money or a crash, as Andrew McGuire discusses the truth about the precious metals industry and the effects of the global economy.
    • Andrew Maguire discusses the urgency of securing real bullion due to the Fed being unprepared for a globally driven gold revaluation.
    • Competing global central banks are accumulating physical gold to bolster their reserves, while the Fed is falling behind and running out of tools to control the price of gold, leading to an inevitable and imminent gold market revaluation that could reach as high as $6,000 per ounce.
    • Maguire discusses the possibility of a Black Swan event occurring over the weekend, specifically if the Russian nuclear Arsenal had changed hands into the Wagner militia control.
  • 05:06 The potential revaluation of gold could cause a significant increase in price, wiping out spec shorts and leading to a possible default on the comex and unlimited losses for naked short specs, while insider commercials are hiding delivery exposure.
    • If the gold market goes bid only, the physical price of gold would dislocate from the cash settle price, causing a significant increase in price and wiping out spec shorts, with the possibility of the FED revaluing gold to address the situation.
    • Maguire discusses the potential consequences of revaluing gold and the double ownership issue, including the possibility of a complete default on the comex and unlimited losses for naked short specs.
    • Insider commercials are trying to hide a large amount of delivery exposure, causing a delay in the delivery of spot contracts.
  • 09:26 Central banks are buying more physical gold, causing the gold price to rise and leaving speculators vulnerable, suggesting the Fed’s strategy may have been a miscalculation.
    • Central Bank buying of physical gold has increased, leaving speculators who hold short paper gold positions vulnerable, and the Fed’s strategy may have been a miscalculation.
    • The gold price rose by $270, indicating that despite market fluctuations, central banks and physical buyers are strategically purchasing gold.
  • 12:20 Sovereigns strategically positioned themselves based on the political and economic climate, but a cartel miscalculation led to a thin market overshoot of Central Bank tonnage spot bid levels. The Federal Reserve is mismanaging gold while other central banks are increasing their reserves, causing a split among speculators.
    • Sovereigns anticipated the actions of the Federal Reserve and strategically positioned themselves based on the political and economic climate.
    • Last week’s thin market overshoot of Central Bank tonnage spot bid levels was likely a cartel miscalculation.
    • The Federal Reserve is mismanaging gold and trying to maintain a paper gold illusion, while other central banks are taking advantage of the situation.
    • Russia, China, BRICS, and African nations are increasing their gold reserves to back their currencies against a depreciating dollar, causing a split among speculators who are using gold as a risk-on hedging tool and will not be affected by rigged price declines.
  • 16:36 Non-US traders are using the Comex Futures exchange to convert their Fiat gold positions into spot gold, creating an opportunity to seize before a real gold price emerges, as the Fed does not have enough bullion to deliver when these outflows hit the deliverable spot gold markets in 2023.
    • Etc will act as fire insurance and was purchased for wow well, with the speaker discussing the important split in the Speculator category.
    • Andrew discusses the diminishing ability of the FED to leverage gold through the comex Futures exchange, resulting in decreased volatility and the realization that trading gold is actually trading a move in gold.
    • Non-US traders are using the exchange for physical mechanism to convert their Comex Fiat gold positions into spot gold deliverable positions, which is forcing the Comex to reflect a real physical price and creating an opportunity to seize before a real gold price emerges, as the Fed does not have the bullion to deliver when these outflows hit the deliverable spot gold markets.
    • In 2023, holding physical gold or silver is crucial for wealth protection and preservation against self-serving bankers, as the casino environment and basil III compliant efp outflows will increase volatility and force a higher price.
  • 21:31 Maguire discusses the market’s current state and emphasizes the importance of looking ahead to July trade, noting upcoming options expiry and contract rollover in silver, which could result in a supply deficit and market-making commercials being on the long side of bearish spec bets made against gold and silver futures, with insiders expected to take action against naked short speculators who miscalculated the impact of Chinese exchanges being closed.
    • Andrew discusses the current state of the market following the recent activity of the Fed and emphasizes the importance of looking at what to expect as we enter the July trade.
    • On Tuesday, the speaker discusses the upcoming options expiry and contract rollover in silver, noting that after first notice day on Thursday, the commercials will be left holding the last contracts, resulting in a massive supply deficit and the market-making commercials being on the long side of bearish spec bets made against gold and silver futures.
    • Insiders are expected to take action against naked short speculators, who miscalculated the impact of Chinese exchanges being closed and triggered a spec long stop hunt in thin liquidity.
  • 24:26 The aggressive selling of gold coincided with the closure of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, resulting in a disconnect between paper selling and Central Bank demand, leading to a miscalculation by the cartel and upcoming delivery demands, while China buys gold to hedge against potential sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s stance raises concerns of a banking contagion.
    • The aggressive selling of gold by officials was timed to coincide with the closure of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, allowing them to take advantage of a three-day window to eliminate as many speculative positions as possible.
    • The thin market overshot the level due to a massive spec capitulation, but liquidity providers were unable to cover into the sticky specs, resulting in a disconnect between the Comex paper selling and Central Bank demand.
    • The oversupply of gold resulted in a miscalculation by the cartel, leading to the Central Bank of China acquiring deliverable gold, while the gold and silver derivative selling exercise orchestrated by officials has reached its limits, requiring short covering, and there are upcoming delivery demands from Sovereign and Central Banks, with evidence of a paper to physical disconnect and a reversal in the correlation between gold and silver prices and the rising dollar.
    • Chinese markets were absent last week, but the People’s Bank of China (pboc) was reported to be buying a large amount of gold in response to escalating geopolitical tensions with the US over Taiwan, which is accelerating and being used to hedge against potential sanctions, while the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve raises concerns of a banking contagion, all of which will impact the markets and boost the dollar Index.
  • 29:18 Silver futures are oversold, causing a physical supply shortage and potential short squeeze, making it an attractive buy with limited downside.
    • Silver futures are oversold due to a rising dollar, leading to a physical supply shortage and a potential short squeeze situation.
    • Silver supply is in deficit, with short positions being covered due to Asian and Chinese buyers taking advantage of discounts, indicating a potential short squeeze and making silver an attractive buy with limited downside.
    • Understand the difference between physical gold and silver and the paper markets, and make sure to own physical gold and silver.

Simon Hunt: A Second, More Powerful Wave of Inflation is Coming
Palisades Gold Radio

A second wave of inflation is predicted to occur in the mid-2020s to early 2030s due to excessive money injection by central banks, global economic challenges, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to significant global inflation, a falling dollar, rising oil and food prices, and a deep recession, but potential for a bull market and global growth in the early 2030s.

  • 00:00 A second wave of inflation is coming as the global economy weakens, with the manufacturing sector in the US already in recession and Europe facing political and economic challenges.
    • Gold is expected to increase in value due to the destruction of reality and the current fantasy world we live in.
    • Copper consumption is currently weak and will continue to weaken in the immediate term.
    • The global economy is heading towards a recession, with the manufacturing sector in the US already in recession, and the reported high level of employment is not a reliable indicator.
    • The Establishment survey does not account for temporary workers and the reliability of the survey responses has been decreasing, leading to a discrepancy between the decrease in the Establishment survey and the increase in the household survey, which can be attributed to corporations cutting work hours instead of hiring temporary workers.
    • A second wave of inflation is coming as corporates start firing during the summer months, Europe is in a political mess with business falling rapidly and Germany in recession, the global economy is weakening, and the conflict in Ukraine is not just between Ukraine and Russia but also involves NATO and America.
  • 08:08 A second wave of inflation is predicted to occur in 2024-2025 due to excessive money injection by central banks, leading to significant global inflation, falling dollar, rising oil and food prices, and a deep recession, but potential for a bull market and global growth in the early 2030s.
    • America’s long-term policy towards Russia has been regime change and control of its natural resources, which is linked to the statement made by treasury secretary Connolly that the dollar is America’s currency but other countries’ problem.
    • Physical consumption is weak in China and the London metal exchange, but copper prices may temporarily rise in the next few weeks before a massive correction in global equity markets due to the impact of the leadership in Moscow and the real war.
    • A second wave of inflation is predicted to occur in 2024 and 2025 due to the excessive amount of money injected into the global system by central banks, which will lead to significant inflation globally.
    • Inflation will increase due to a falling dollar, rising oil and food prices, and the impact of the 89-year Leesburg cycle.
    • A second wave of inflation is predicted to cause a deep recession and collapse in copper consumption and prices until the early 2030s, but after that, there is potential for a real bull market and global growth.
  • 19:39 A second wave of inflation is coming due to the impact of job composition on the US fiscal situation, potential dysfunction in the treasury market, China’s hedging of treasury holdings, and the introduction of a gold-backed currency.
    • The composition of jobs in the US has a significant impact on the fiscal situation, with a large difference between the two sectors and a potential snowball effect on the budget deficit.
    • Treasury yields will initially fall but then rise sharply, leading to a potential dysfunction in the treasury market and the need for the Fed to inject cash, ultimately resulting in a second wave of inflation.
    • China has been hedging its treasury holdings with US banks and investing in physical assets, such as the BRI, to mitigate the potential impact of a devalued US treasury market.
    • Late August this year, there will be a gold-backed currency, possibly a new BRICS currency, and China’s holdings of physical gold are over 50,000 tons, with 25,000 tons going through the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
    • Bars of gold were stacked from floor to ceiling in a large warehouse, leaving the speaker in awe.
  • 29:36 China and Russia’s significant gold holdings and the New Development Bank’s issuance of panda bonds suggest a shift away from the dollar, leading to a decrease in the dollar’s exposure and a potential comeback of gold as a trade financing mechanism, while copper producers are seeking a goldback currency to make their profits real.
    • China and Russia hold a significant amount of gold, and the speaker predicts a coming shock in the global economy with surpluses and deficits being managed through an interstate mechanism.
    • The New Development Bank is holding large amounts of member currencies and has issued 1.2 trillion of panda bonds in China, which suggests a link to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and as more trade is done without using the dollar, the dollar’s exposure will decrease rapidly, with approximately half of China’s gold being held by the public and the other half by the government.
    • Gold is expected to make a comeback as a mechanism to finance trade and create trust between parties, as countries outside of the G7 are frustrated with the US using the dollar as a form of enforcement.
    • Copper prices have significantly increased over the years, but the profits for copper producers have been illusionary, and now they are looking towards a goldback currency to make their profits real.
  • 37:48 A second wave of inflation is coming, with BRICS countries potentially benefiting from defaulting on loans, China’s weak economy causing a lack of economic benefit globally, and evidence of contingency plans and stockpiling by the government.
    • Existing and new members of BRICS will not be penalized if they default on loans to the Western system, which could be beneficial for countries like Zambia and DRC.
    • Commodity producers like China and Russia, who have a longer-term view, are better prepared for the tough economic situation between 2025 and the early 2030s, while the West only plans for a maximum of four years.
    • China’s weak economy, high unemployment, and aging population are causing a decrease in spending and investment, leading to a lack of economic benefit for the rest of the world.
    • Factories are being reprocessed to produce military components, suggesting that contingency plans are being laid out, and there is evidence of unsold EV cars being stockpiled by the government to make the economy appear better than it actually is.
  • 45:34 China’s property market may slow down as cautious households and multiple property owners reduce sales, while the government focuses on reducing property debt, leading to a stabilization in the market; China’s GDP growth is expected to be lower this year due to global and domestic uncertainties, and there is concern about high personal and domestic debt; China’s local governments are being told to live within their means, resulting in wage cuts and reduced consumption, contradicting the narrative of China transitioning to a consumer economy; China and most G7 countries, particularly Germany, are facing a significant demographic problem with not enough babies being born to replace retirees, posing a global demographic time bomb.
    • Ghost cities are being filled up due to a property boom, but with cautious households and a large percentage owning multiple properties, there may be a slowdown in property sales and stabilization in the market, while the government focuses on reducing property debt.
    • China’s GDP growth is expected to be lower this year due to global and domestic uncertainties, and there is concern about the country’s high personal and domestic debt load.
    • China’s local governments are being told to live within their means, leading to wage cuts and reduced consumption, which contradicts the narrative of China transitioning to a consumer economy.
    • China and most G7 countries, particularly Germany, are facing a significant demographic problem with not enough babies being born to replace those who will be retiring or dying, which is a global demographic time bomb.
  • 53:51 China’s investment in Iran’s manufacturing sector and the substitution of copper with aluminum in various industries will lead to a second wave of inflation due to increased copper consumption and loss of demand.
    • Countries with positive demographics can export their manufacturing base to other countries, as seen with Japan’s example of exporting to Vietnam and Thailand.
    • China is investing $25 billion in Iran’s manufacturing sector to set up their own factories and become an exporting base, leading to rapid growth and increased copper consumption.
    • There has been a significant loss of approximately 400,000 tons of copper in the last three years due to substitution with other materials like aluminum.
    • The substitution of copper with aluminum in various industries, such as car wiring, air conditioning, and grid systems, will result in a significant loss of copper demand, leading to a second wave of inflation.
  • 01:02:17 Global conflicts, including Russia’s actions in Ukraine and potential conflict over Taiwan, could lead to market uncertainty and inflation, making the mid-2020s to early 2030s a challenging period for individuals and institutions.
    • Russia’s actions in Ukraine and NATO will likely have a significant impact on global households and countries.
    • Russia and NATO are on the brink of a real war, with the possibility of NATO offering troops and fighter pilots without uniforms, which Moscow is well aware of.
    • The speaker predicts that an escalation of the war in Ukraine and potential conflict over Taiwan could lead to market uncertainty and China’s involvement.
    • Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Straits of Hormuz are potential conflict hotspots, and Iran has contingency plans to shut down the Straits if attacked, while the mid-2020s to early 2030s will be a challenging period for individuals, companies, and institutions.
    • The speaker aims to educate people on global shifts and the possibilities of inflation, encouraging action and providing a website for further information.
    • Simon Hunt’s podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice; listeners are encouraged to educate themselves and make their own decisions.

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