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Top Three Videos – July 13, 2024

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Dave Collum: Beware of Shifting Tide, Risk of Big Crash (July 10, 2024)

WTFinance...

Summary

 

The market is at risk of a potential big crash due to a variety of factors including market top-heaviness, unfunded liabilities, shifting consumer preferences, and geopolitical risks.

 

Market Crash and Economic Bubble Concerns

 
  • Dropping rates for 40 years and the disinflationary effect of China are over, leading to a potential big crash in the market.
  • “Corrections like it’s the end of days I go that’s the warm-up. That’s the first inning as far as I’m concern” – Dave Collum
  • Our markets are topheavy to a nearly unprecedented level, with the absurdity of how they got there being some sort of inflationary bubble.
  • The unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare are in the 250 trillion category, with 175 trillion just for those two programs.
  • The economy is a 70% consumption economy, which is a stupid definition, as an economy should be based on production and wealth creation.
  • The cost of healthcare is really about the cost of a rapidly depreciating asset, which is what we call Boomers.
  • The younger generation may not want big McMansions, leading to a shift towards multi-generational housing and smaller living spaces.
  • If the FED starts dropping rates, the last two major downturns tell you that you’re about to lose at least 50% of market cap.
     

Societal and Geopolitical Risks and Shifts

 
  • The risk of a big crash is not just about bear markets, but also the potential for nuclear war due to incompetent leaders.
  • The potential for the US to experience another major conflict similar to the Civil War of 1861 is a concerning possibility.
 

A concerning pattern in ALL Socialist childhoods (July 1, 2024)...

TIKHistory...

Summary

 

Psychological roots of socialist beliefs

 
  • A concerning pattern emerges in the childhoods of major Socialists, rooted in the idea of self-sacrifice and altruism.
  • Altruism effectively rewards victimhood, incentivizing individuals to compete for the most victimized status in order to receive sympathy and special treatment.
  • Socialism is rooted in a desire to transcend the material world and not have to work, leading to a subconscious rebellion against reality and a hatred of capitalism.
  • Epicurus’ philosophy of withdrawing from the world and seeking happiness through the absence of strong emotions sparks debate about the true nature of happiness.
  • They all had a fear of independence that manifested as a hatred of the “Capitalist system”, and they dreamed of revolution in order to bring down the “material” reality that demanded they get a job.
  • Socialism is about avoiding responsibility and wallowing in victimhood, rebelling against reality as a way of avoiding work.

Consequences of socialist upbringing

 
  • Socialism gave Marx permission to rebel against reality and fulfill his desire to be taken care of, leading to disastrous consequences for humanity as a whole.
  • Stalin’s upbringing in a religiously altruistic household and his father’s alcoholism may have contributed to his low self-esteem and fear of independence.
  • Stalin’s rebellion against the Russian Eastern Orthodox Church and immersion in Orphic philosophy shaped his socialist beliefs and actions.
  • Socialism is all about “victims” rising up and becoming the new rulers, according to Marx’s “Dialectical Materialism”.
  • Falling into this faith then led to disastrous consequences for humanity as a whole.

Doomberg: IMPORTANT Warning To Gold Buyers (July 9, 2024)

CapitalCosm...

Summary

 

Gold is slowly returning to its rightful role as the neutral reserve asset for the settlement of international trade imbalances.

 

Geopolitical Implications of Gold and Energy

 
  • “Gold is slowly returning to its rightful role as the neutral Reserve asset for the settlement of international trade imbalances.”
  • The expected value probability of World War III times the consequences is factored into the risk-adjusted premium for oil, with the potential for prices to reach $150 or even $200 per barrel in the event of a major conflict.
  • Gold is slowly returning to its rightful role as the neutral reserve asset for the settlement of international trade imbalances.
  • The physical gold exchange window in Shanghai is trading at a significant premium to the paper price of gold in London and New York, indicating a potential imbalance in the gold market.
  • The idea that “competency, bubble, social pressure, and momentum” are the causes of persistently dumb decisions in corporate leadership is a thought-provoking insight.
  • “I hold gold because it has a 5,000 year track record of being an excellent preservation of value.”
  • The West needs to go back to basics and have a real understanding of the physics of energy to avoid geopolitical weakness.
     

Economic and Social Impact of AI and Technology

 
  • Electricity is worth way more than we pay for it, and AI is going to see a bunch of poor people out and it’s going to get ugly.
  • AI’s ability to afford higher energy prices will lead to the crowding out of Bitcoin Miners and white-collar jobs, creating economic inequality.
  • The key to success is not just money, but the sweat equity, time, effort, and love put into a project.
 
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