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Top Three Videos – July 21 2023

Francis Hunt: Gold - The Beginning of the Journey to $2905
Palisades Gold Radio

Quick Summary Bullets:

Market Trends and Analysis

  • “We live in a fantasy world. Now reality has been destroyed. This is the time that you really need to pay attention.”
  • The convex curve of gold’s journey means that even though the acceleration may be decreasing, the number is still climbing, suggesting continued upward movement.
  • The speaker expects a turn in Gold and believes it is already happening.
  • The breakout above the red line indicates the beginning of a journey towards $2905 for gold.
  • The chart analysis suggests that the breakout of the 1930 level in gold will lead to a significant run and potentially surpass the target price of $2905.
  • The speaker accurately predicted the movement of the dollar, first being bearish and then becoming bullish, indicating a strong understanding of market trends.
  • The Federal Reserve’s actions actually contribute to greater volatility and build up greater crises in the economic system, rather than reducing volatility and keeping people safe.
  • The volatility in the market is increasing, indicating a potential disorderly decline followed by an eventual disorderly increase in gold prices.
  • “We see a left shoulder. The bigger dip head here and the right shoulder and that continuation pattern takes you to 38 and of course the full Bear Flag we bull flag. My apologies takes you to 45.” – The speaker identifies a continuation pattern in the silver chart, suggesting that it could potentially reach $38 and even $45, indicating further upward movement in the price of silver.
  • Gold is projected to make headway against other currencies, particularly the dollar, indicating a potential pivot to a standout gold and silver bull market.
  • “Patterns are everything to me, you’ll see and you get natural geometry in charts.”
  • Gold is expected to reach $2905, indicating a significant increase in value.

Gold as an Anti-Fiat Asset

  • Gold is seen as the ultimate anti-fiat asset, and a strong Euro can be beneficial for gold as it weakens the dollar and undermines the perception of fiat currencies as a whole.
  • Gold’s recent movement indicates a potential downward trend for the dollar, which could be beneficial for gold, the Euro, and even cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • Gold is experiencing a strong upward trend against various currencies, including the Euro, Pound, and Swiss Franc, indicating a weakening of the dollar.

Potential Impact on Other Currencies and Assets

  • “There’s a surge coming for crypto, but as I’ve said, you’ve got to know who’s the boss cylinder and it’s gold against the dollar in the anti-fiat realm.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Gold’s value is expected to increase significantly due to ongoing inflation and a recessional economy, making it a prime investment opportunity.
    • Gold’s value is expected to increase significantly, making it the best environment for investment.
    • Inflation is not cured and although recent data may suggest a decrease, it is actually still increasing when compared to higher basing effects from a year ago.
    • Francis Hunt explains that despite the Euro appearing lower, there is still a steady increase in acceleration and demand for gold.
    • He discusses various economic indicators, such as labor metrics and retail sales, suggesting that the economy is more recessional than people realize and that inflation is causing consumer costs to rise.
  • 04:29 Gold is expected to surge and then decline due to the influence of the dollar, with a potential bull run in the Euro USD pair and a strong Euro being good for gold against the dollar, while the next wave of inflation may be sparked by a banking crisis or financial market distress.
    • Gold is expected to experience a surge followed by a downturn due to the influence of the dollar.
    • Gold has started to turn in favor of the euro against the dollar due to higher inflation expectations in euroland, leading to a rare inversion that suggests a potential bull run in the Euro USD pair.
    • Gold and Bitcoin are seen as alternatives to fiat currency, with liquidity moving between them and the Euro, and a strong Euro is good for gold against the dollar.
    • Gold is expected to continue its downward trend, which is good for the Euro and silver, and eventually cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum will follow suit.
    • The next wave of inflation may be sparked by a banking crisis or financial market distress, leading to a devaluation of currency and imported inflation, as seen in the weakening of the dollar against other currencies and the increase in oil prices.
    • Hunt  discusses the setup for the dollar index and mentions that there was a triggering event after new data came in, leading to a short position at 103 Dixie.
  • 12:47 Gold is expected to break the $2,705 level and surpass its target of $2,905 due to a falling wedge pattern in the dollar and a bottoming structure in gold, with potential gains for Bitcoin as well.
    • The continued move to downside to 97 in the USD will result in further cost push inflation on imports, as the money that was created and caused inflation is still out there.
    • Understanding the movement of the dollar is crucial for understanding gold, as demonstrated by the trading history of the euro USD pair.
    • Hunt discusses the relationship between the Euro, the dollar, Bitcoin, and gold, noting that a falling wedge in the Euro suggests dollar weakness and potential gains for gold and Bitcoin.
    • Gold has experienced a stop-start break, with a small pullback expected before breaking the $2,705 level, while the dollar has been slipping into a falling wedge pattern.
    • The chart shows a bottoming structure with a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, and the breakout of the 1930 level will lead to a run that will surpass the target, with a recent reversal on the shorter time frames.
  • 18:26 Gold is gaining strength against various currencies, indicating a shift in the market, while the weakening dollar is predicted to cause inflation in America.
    • Gold was behaving like a currency, gaining against the weak dollar and turning strong against all currencies, including the Euro and the pound.
    • Gold has been gaining strength against various currencies, including the Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc, and Chinese Yuan, indicating a shift in the market.
    • Hunt  discusses the difference between commodity producer currencies and consumer nations in a high rate environment, using the example of the US dollar benefiting from Brazil and Mexico having deflator currencies relative to the dollar.
    • Hunt discusses the impact of the weakening dollar on the Mexican peso and predicts that America will experience inflation due to the loss of currency power.
    • Emerging currencies like the Chinese Yuan, Mexican peso, and Brazilian real are steadily trending towards their target, with the peso expected to reach 14 on the dollar, indicating a strong possibility of inflation returning.
    • He discusses their bearish and bullish calls on the dollar, noting a major reversal and a target being reached, but also mentioning a pullback in the dollar’s power against the Chinese yuan.
  • 26:43 The possibility of a dollar devaluation and inflation may lead to a spike in interest rates, causing a rush to trade gold and silver, with gold potentially reaching $2905 and silver reaching $45.
    • Currency performance is a problem that will lead to dollar devaluation, inflation, rate hikes, and the need to release debt valuation through either higher rates or currency devaluation.
    • The possibility of the “dollar milkshake theory” may occur after a sell-off and oversold situation, with an aggressive fed and inflation leading to a quick tightening cycle that shocks the market in the opposite direction.
    • A sudden devaluation of the dollar will lead to a spike in interest rates, causing a rush to the other side of the market and resulting in a worse correction than the original wobble, so the focus should be on trading gold and silver rather than the dollar.
    • Higher volatility is expected due to disorderly descents and the Federal Reserve’s actions, which add to economic instability and cause subsequent violent counter moves.
    • Hunt  predicts that after a period of zigging and a high counter rally, there will be a break of the bottom line leading to a disorderly increase in gold prices.
    • Gold and silver are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold potentially reaching $2905 and silver reaching $45, based on technical analysis of their respective charts.
  • 35:47 Gold is projected to reach $2905 as the dollar weakens, leading to a pivot towards gold and silver bull markets, while Bitcoin dominance is expected to pull back, leading to a surge in XRP and other altcoins.
    • Gold is projected to reach $2905, with silver needing to reach $26 and the dollar weakening, leading to a pivot towards gold and silver bull markets.
    • Gold’s recent upward movement has deviated from the usual summer doldrums, indicating a potential standalone scenario.
    • Gold has not experienced much movement in the past three months, making it difficult to trade, but Bitcoin has also been relatively stagnant before a slight correction against the Euro.
    • The pound has been trading between the 30k and 31k handle, with a soft lean, and there is a surge coming for crypto, but the boss cylinder is gold against the dollar in the anti-fiat realm.
    • Bitcoin dominance is expected to pull back, leading to a surge in XRP and other altcoins, with XRP predicted to be a star performer.
  • 41:13 Hunt discusses the potential rise of gold to $2905, the role of cryptocurrencies in central bank digital currencies, and the importance of patterns and understanding market movements in trading.
    • He discusses a major judge decision that led to high volatility and successful leveraged long trades, highlighting the importance of patterns and natural geometry in charts.
    • The price of gold is expected to reach $2905, with resistance at 55 cents and a target of $1.13.
    • Gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies, particularly Ripple and Lumen, are expected to play a significant role in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with Ripple being the safer trade option.
    • Hunt discusses upcoming technical trades and predicts that the dollar will push Bitcoin to rise, while also mentioning the potential success of other cryptocurrencies like XRP, emphasizing the importance of understanding market movements and having a system in place before news is announced.
    • Low volatility and volume in the Ripple market may seem boring to most, but it is actually an opportunity to chase stale volume and volatility, which is the speaker’s specialty.
    • Hunt  discusses the benefits of using tight stops and leveraging in trading, as well as the importance of quickly exiting losing trades and holding onto winners for longer periods of time.
  • 47:36 He discusses the use of fractal setups and AI in trading, emphasizing the importance of multiplying wealth; gold is performing well and it’s a good time to invest in silver before the gold-silver ratio bounces back.
    • Hunt discusses the risk-reward calculation and the use of fractal setups in trading, emphasizing the power of multiplying wealth instead of adding it, and mentions an upcoming event on using AI for trading.
    • He discusses the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence for pattern recognition in trading, specifically in relation to their own pattern set up called Hvf Strat.
    • Artificial intelligence and machine learning will make trading more interesting, but traders should focus on specific indicators and eliminate non-alpha contributory factors.
    • Price is the primary indicator in trading, providing patterns that can be used to determine entry, stop loss, and takeoff points for risk-reward analysis.
    • Gold is performing well against other currencies, and silver is expected to start overperforming soon, so it is a good time to invest in silver before the gold-silver ratio bounces back.
    • This podcast is for general informational purposes only and listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own investment decisions.

Fed will hike into a recession, markets to crash 70% but these assets will outperform — Todd, “Bubba,” Horwitz
Kitco News

Quick Summary Bullets:

Investment opportunities in commodities and cryptocurrencies

  • The fiat currency system is fraudulent, and a currency must have some form of backing, such as gold, to prevent government and central banks from reducing its value and continuously pumping money into the money supply.
  • “Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained recognition as real currencies or commodities, with a real market behind them, and are even traded actively as futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.”
  • Bitcoin has unique properties like limited supply and decentralization that differentiate it from other cryptocurrencies in terms of the sound money argument.
  • Todd Horwitz predicts that gold will reach $2200 by the end of the year, citing potential struggles and problems in the world as catalysts for a breakout.
  • Horwitz believes that the commodity market, including precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum, will see increased investment as money flows into hard assets due to a potential recession.
  • “I think Commodities in general are great spots to look for because I do expect a big Market in Commodities.”
  • “I’ll use gold and silver and platinum which I think is the greatest value right now Platinum.”
  • “I think that it’s going to be part of this whole basket of precious metals that may be a backing of any currency.”

Economic indicators and recession predictions

  • “We are actually already in a recession despite what the traditional indicators suggest.”
  • “Fed will hike into a recession, markets to crash 70% but these assets will outperform.”
  • “I expect that we’re going to see a market haircut of 50 to 70 percent before it’s all said and done.”
  • “I have an opinion and I do believe we’re going down 50 to 70 but from where is it today… My numbers could raise higher as a percentage of sell-off because again I’m looking for those two numbers to come into play before it’s all said and done.”

Critique of the Federal Reserve’s actions

  • “The FED is nowhere near done because they’re nowhere near they have no intelligence when it comes to Common Sense…they’re going to get into high grades which is ridiculous into what I call a recession and no Federal Reserve has ever hiked rates into a recession in history.”
  • The Fed’s commitment to hike rates into a recession is “ridiculous” and could lead to a crash in the markets.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The speaker believes the US is already in a recession and warns against expecting a soft landing, especially with the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates, predicting a 70% market crash, but certain assets will outperform during this time.
    • The speaker believes that despite traditional indicators suggesting otherwise, the US is already in a recession and warns against expecting a soft landing, especially with the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates.
    • The Bubba Show is a fan favorite on Kitco and the speaker is excited to be there and cover a lot of topics.
    • Inflation in the US may appear to be cooling based on official statistics, but personal experiences and rising prices suggest otherwise, with the economy weakening and the middle class shrinking.
    • Government numbers are manipulated and adjusted to fit their agenda, and the economy is in trouble with many problems to deal with.
    • Inflation numbers are intentionally manipulated and do not accurately reflect the rising costs of daily expenses like food and energy, which will only increase further when crude oil prices rise.
    • Horwitz predicts that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, leading to a 70% market crash, but believes certain assets will outperform during this time.
  • 07:14 He predicts a 50-70% market crash due to unjustified rate hikes, inflation, and high debt, but data suggests a strong economy with low unemployment and booming housing sector.
    • He argues that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes are unjustified because inflation is not under control, and there are different types of inflation, with good inflation being driven by growth and demand.
    • Prices are increasing due to the Federal Reserve and government raising taxes, leading to a potential market crash and a prediction of the 10-year yield reaching 6%, causing the markets to melt down.
    • Horwitz expects a market crash of 50 to 70 percent and believes that we are already in a recession.
    • Many Americans are struggling financially, with high credit card debt, inability to save for emergencies, and low income relative to inflation, leading to elderly individuals having to work and people on Social Security struggling to make ends meet.
    • Economists and brokerage houses may not always have the best interest of the people in mind when they claim the economy is good, as they may actually want to sell stocks instead of buying them, but data shows that the US GDP increased in the first quarter, indicating that we are not currently in a recession.
    • US unemployment remains low, consumer sentiment is high, the housing sector is booming, and top banks are reporting strong quarters, suggesting a seemingly strong economy despite concerns of a recession and market crash.
  • 13:35 Horwitz predicts a significant market crash due to high unemployment, struggling housing markets, and the stock market’s reliance on a few stocks, with retail investors driving the market higher until institutional investors get involved.
    • He argues that the jobs numbers are misleading and that the overall economy is in trouble, citing examples of high unemployment and homelessness.
    • Housing markets are struggling despite high consumer sentiment, and the stock market’s success is driven by only a few stocks.
    • Horwitz predicts a big market crash despite the current rally, attributing the market’s resilience to low volumes and people chasing after it.
    • Retail investors are currently driving the market higher, but when they eventually sell, there will be a significant market crash due to greed turning into fear, and the speaker expects this to happen when institutional investors like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan get involved.
    • He uses derivatives to hedge their long-term investments and plans to stay long in the market despite the current market conditions.
  • 18:10 The speaker predicts a 50-70% market crash, with the Fed potentially hiking rates into a recession, but advises against panic as there will be clear signals before the crash occurs.
    • Horwitz predicts a 50-70% market crash, with the Dow potentially reaching 19,000 and the S&P trading at 16.72, but advises against panic as there will be clear signals before the crash occurs.
    • When the markets start making lower highs and the rally is done, it may be time to evaluate positions as the decline signals a potential downturn, leading retail buyers to continue buying the dip and falling into the trap created by the market.
    • A potential 50 basis point hike by the Fed next week could cause a significant market sell-off, but it is uncertain whether the sell-off will hold or if the Fed will actually make the hike.
    • The Federal Reserve’s commitment to hike rates into a recession could lead to a 70% market crash, but assets will outperform, as the real economy is already in trouble due to increasing debt and reduced consumer spending.
    • Hiking rates into a bad situation takes money away from the middle class, leading to struggles for small businesses and potential economic downturn, with the current administration intentionally harming small businesses and favoring big businesses.
    • Horwitz believes that the current administration is intentionally destroying small businesses and the middle class, consolidating power in big businesses and government, and making questionable decisions regarding oil production and international relations.
  • 25:52 He criticizes the current administration and political system, highlighting the potential for a Revolutionary War and the implementation of a “great reset” agenda, while discussing the need for hard assets like gold, silver, platinum, and Bitcoin to restore financial stability and combat inflation.
    • Horwitz believes that there is a malicious intention behind the errors and divide purposely created by the current administration, leading to a potential Revolutionary War and the implementation of the “great reset” agenda to completely reset the financial system.
    • The speaker criticizes the Biden Administration and the corrupt political system in the United States, arguing that their actions are leading the country towards socialism and a recession, while also highlighting the excessive control and influence of the federal government.
    • Presidential candidates are acknowledging the need to back the US dollar with hard assets like gold, silver, platinum, and even Bitcoin to restore strength, combat inflation, and ensure financial stability, as the current fiat currency system is fraudulent and gives too much power to central banks.
    • The speaker discusses the possibility of a joint currency backed by gold among the BRICS countries and questions the feasibility of the US dollar being backed by gold or other commodities.
    • The speaker believes that the current monetary system needs something to back it, and suggests that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could serve as a real and steady alternative, with potential for a larger role in the future.
    • Bitcoin is gaining traction as a potential alternative to the US dollar to prevent debasement and devaluation, despite its volatility.
  • 37:28 Bitcoin may reach $35,000 or $40,000 by year-end, gold is expected to hit $2200, markets are overvalued and could crash 70%, but gold, silver, and commodities will outperform, and the Federal Reserve will raise rates twice more.
    • Bitcoin has become less volatile but will still experience upward movement in price, with a potential increase to $35,000 or $40,000 by the end of the year.
    • Gold is expected to reach $2200 by the end of the year due to potential struggles and increased demand, despite the Federal Reserve raising rates, as correlations between interest rates and gold prices are not always immediate.
    • Horwitz predicts that the markets are overvalued and due for a major sell-off, possibly into an election year, but the timing and severity will depend on various factors including the election and political choices.
    • Silver is expected to rally to the mid-30s by the end of the year due to pent-up demand and the potential for a market correction, with the catalyst being new money flowing into the market and short covering.
    • Horwitz predicts that the markets will crash 70%, but gold, silver, and commodities will outperform, and the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates two more times by the end of the year.
    • Look for depressed equities to start to explode higher, such as buying the spiders or the cues, if you believe in the United States.
  • 49:24 Invest in ETFs and strong assets like gold, silver, and platinum for long-term growth, as markets may crash but these assets will continue to perform well; legislation is being introduced to ban politicians from insider trading and restore public trust.
    • Invest in ETFs and assets like gold, silver, and platinum that are fundamentally strong and can be held for the long term, as markets historically have shown gains and these assets will continue to grow over the next 10 years.
    • Platinum is a solid investment opportunity due to its low price and potential as a backing for currency, and the speaker recommends holding onto physical assets like gold, silver, and platinum for the long term.
    • Investing is a game of delayed gratification, so it is important to invest in assets with a solid future and not sell them right away.
    • Bipartisan legislation has been introduced to ban members of the Federal Executive Branch and lawmakers from owning stock in individual companies, with severe penalties for violations, in an effort to prevent politicians from taking advantage of insider information and restore public trust.
    • Insider trading by politicians needs to be addressed and potentially taken to the Supreme Court for resolution.
    • Horwitz discusses the potential involvement of the Supreme Court in passing bills and the need for changes in insider trading laws, while expressing a desire to remain positive and optimistic.
  • 55:49 Horwitz offers a special giveaway of two books on trading options and encourages viewers to email him for a free PDF copy, with the option to buy on Amazon, and mentions a special offer for Kitco viewers in the video description.

This Chart Is Worse Than The Great Depression- Mark Moss
Mark Moss

The current economic situation suggests a potential period of massive stagflation worse than the Great Depression, and it is crucial to have a plan to navigate and profit from it.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The current economic situation is comparable to the Great Depression, with some charts showing even worse conditions.
  • “We’re seeing very similar events unfold right before our very eyes and a lot of people think that this time is different and I agree with him. This time is different as a matter of fact it looks like it’s way worse.”
  • Understanding the money supply, specifically the M2 money supply, is crucial for comprehending the state of the economy and predicting market trends.
  • Adjusted for M2, the S&P has never surpassed its 1929 high, highlighting the shocking impact of the Great Depression and the long-lasting effects on the market.
  • “There’s a few differences between today and 1930 and uh yeah this time it’s worse.”
  • The speaker predicts a period of massive stagflation, even worse than what has been seen in the past few decades, and advises viewers to prepare accordingly.
  • “Having a plan to survive this and even profit from this…you should be too.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Mark Moss discusses the current economic situation, comparing it to the Great Depression, and highlights even worse charts, while offering practical ways to navigate and succeed; they also introduce the Sovereign OS operating system for building wealth and financial freedom.
    • Moss discusses the current economic situation and compares it to the Great Depression, highlighting the existence of charts that are even worse than those seen during that time, and offers practical ways to navigate and succeed in the current climate.
    • Moss has created a system called the Sovereign OS operating system that allows individuals to build wealth on autopilot and be financially free.
  • 01:37 The Roaring Twenties brought optimism and innovation, but the stock market crash of 1929 and current events suggest a worse crisis is unfolding.
    • The Roaring Twenties was a decade of optimism and technological innovation, with advancements in electrification, cars, radio, telephone, aviation, and travel.
    • The stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent banking crisis led to a nationwide banking holiday, and similar events are currently unfolding that appear to be even worse.
  • 03:44 The M2 money supply has increased by 185% since 2008, suggesting a possible economic slowdown.
    • Understanding the money supply, specifically the M2 money supply, is crucial for comprehending the state of the economy and the movement of cash.
    • The M2 money supply has increased by 185 percent since 2008, indicating a potential economic slowdown.
  • 05:28 The correlation between the S&P 500 and M2 money supply adjusted for inflation reveals that investment gains are not real, as they only reflect monetary inflation, and the recent steep drop in M2 suggests a potential recession or worse.
    • The correlation between the S&P 500 and the M2 money supply adjusted for inflation shows that investment gains have not actually been gains, as they only track the monetary inflation rate, and when adjusted for M2, the S&P has never surpassed its 1929 high.
    • When the M2 money supply decreases, it indicates trouble ahead as seen in previous financial crises, and the recent 2.6% drop, the steepest since 1933, suggests a potential recession or worse.
  • 07:46 The U.S. banking system is worse than during the Great Depression, lacking safeguards and reforms, despite government reassurances.
    • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking of interest rates and the decline in the M2 money supply is reminiscent of the conditions that led to the Great Depression, and despite recent bank failures, policymakers remain optimistic about the economy.
    • The U.S. banking system is currently in a worse state than during the Great Depression, despite reassurances from the government, due to the lack of safeguards and reforms that were implemented after the financial crisis.
  • 09:26 Prepare for a period of massive stagflation worse than the Great Depression, as the US median income has decreased and the Federal Reserve is likely to take aggressive action.
    • The median income in the United States has decreased from $88,000 to $56,000, with parallels to the Great Depression such as homeless encampments, hidden hobo camps, and virtual bread lines, but the difference is that the Federal Reserve is more willing to take aggressive action now.
    • Prepare for a period of massive stagflation worse than what we’ve seen in the past few decades, as the FED is likely to rev up the money printer again.
  • 11:27 Businesses can raise prices to be inflation resistant and recessions are opportunities to build wealth, so it’s crucial to have a plan to navigate and profit from the current economic situation caused by money printing.
    • Financial assets, value-based stocks, commodities, and real estate performed well during periods of high inflation, and businesses can be inflation resistant by raising prices.
    • Recessions and depressions are opportunities to build wealth, so it’s important to have a plan and system in place to navigate and profit from them, as the current economic situation is inevitable due to money printing.
  • 13:16 Stagflation is the most likely case, and the speaker asks for comments and likes on the video.

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