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Top Three Videos – July 24 2023

Adrian Day- The Ultimate Hedges Against ‘Stagflation’, Destruction Of Wealth
David Lin

Undervalued assets like emerging market stocks and gold are good investment choices to hedge against potential risks such as stagflation and a potential recession caused by rising interest rates and high valuations in the market.

Quick Summary Bullets:

Market Risk and Stagflation Concerns

  • “The risk in the market is very high and it’s not priced in at all.”
  • “I think we’re heading into a stagflation because to me a recession is baked in a cake right now.”
  • “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see three and a quarter to three and a half percent headline inflation, maybe four percent, while the economy is falling into recession, leading to stagflation.”
  • “There’s no question that if we go into a serious global recession, it will have a big impact on everything.”
  • The most effective way to decrease aggregate demand is by putting people out of work, highlighting the potential destruction of wealth in a stagflation scenario.
  • “What will cause the FED to Pivot in my mind will be another financial crisis of some type.”

Undervalued Assets and Potential Hedges

  • Contrary to expectations, gold stocks have historically performed well during recessions, with some experiencing significant gains of 50 to 100 percent.
  • Gold stocks are currently undervalued, with major producers selling close to their 20-year lows in valuations, despite the price of gold being high.
  • The most undervalued assets are the ones that tend to perform well during periods of stagflation, making them a potential hedge against wealth destruction.
  • Copper is a valuable resource with potential for high returns due to increased demand from electrification and limited supply of large copper mines.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Undervalued assets like emerging market stocks are expected to perform well in the coming years despite the current overvaluation of the market, which is at high risk due to bullish sentiment and high valuations, and comparing valuations to historical precedents is important in determining if markets are expensive.
    • Undervalued assets, such as emerging market stocks, are expected to perform well in the coming years, despite the current overvaluation of the market.
    • The market is currently overvalued with high risk due to increasingly bullish sentiment and high valuations, and the potential decline in earnings is not priced in.
    • When a large number of people start shifting towards a bullish stance after a market rally, it may signal a top, but if people become more bullish on undervalued assets like gold stocks, it can be a positive sign, whereas comparing valuations to historical precedents is important in determining if markets are expensive.
    • The longer it takes for stocks to trade at 20 times earnings, the longer it will take to get a return, but starting from five or ten times earnings can expedite the process.
  • 04:38 The bond market predicts a recession and stagflation due to a slowdown in the economy, stubborn inflation, and the possibility of rising oil prices.
    • The bond market is predicting a recession while the stock market remains bullish due to the bond market’s historical accuracy in predicting recessions and the presence of excess money in the system.
    • We are heading into a recession and stagflation, with indicators showing a slowdown in the economy and stubborn inflation.
    • Oil prices have decreased, leading to easier comparisons for inflation, but if oil prices rise again, inflation could reach three and a half to four percent, causing stagflation.
  • 08:11 Gold is a versatile investment that hedges against various risks, including inflation and deflation, and tends to perform well during stagflation periods, making it a good investment choice.
    • Gold tends to perform well in stagflationary periods and recessions, with gold stocks also showing positive returns during most recessions since the 1960s.
    • Gold is a versatile investment that hedges against various risks, including inflation and deflation, and tends to perform well during stagflation periods.
    • Commodities and smaller markets tend to perform well during stagflation, while developed stock and bond markets are overvalued, making gold stocks and commodities a good investment.
  • 11:46 Emerging market stocks are undervalued and can serve as a hedge against stagflation, while rising oil prices and underinvestment in commodities will impact transportation costs and lead to price increases.
    • Emerging market stocks, which have performed poorly compared to major market stocks, are currently undervalued and can serve as a hedge against stagflation, with inflation expected to eventually increase due to factors such as core inflation remaining high and the base effect.
    • If oil prices increase during a global recession, it will have a significant impact on transportation costs and the prices of goods in stores.
    • The underinvestment in oil and other commodities, due to factors like ESG concerns, will eventually lead to a rise in prices.
  • 15:03 Deposits in unfriendly jurisdictions are becoming harder, leading to longer wait times and increased costs, while mining projects face opposition, making it difficult to raise capital for large projects, but gold and copper offer potential returns due to changing demand and underinvestment.
    • Permitting for deposits in unfriendly jurisdictions is becoming more difficult, resulting in longer wait times and increased costs.
    • Mining projects are facing increasing opposition from NGOs due to environmental concerns, leading to underinvestment and negative returns on investor capital in the mining sector.
    • Raising capital for large projects from big firms has become much more difficult in recent years due to lower returns on investment.
    • Gold is the most valuable resource in terms of risk reward and preservation, but copper is a strong contender for the biggest return due to changing demand and underinvestment, with large copper mines being extremely rare and not actively sought after.
  • 19:30 The Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates and start cutting them, potentially leading to a recession and lower stock market, as Jerome Powell aims to decrease aggregate demand by increasing unemployment.
    • The Federal Reserve is expected to stop raising interest rates and eventually start cutting them, despite some members discussing rate increases in the future.
    • Jerome Powell wants to decrease aggregate demand by increasing unemployment, potentially leading to a recession and a lower stock market, as he believes this is the most effective way to achieve his goal.
    • Day discusses the potential triggers for the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy, such as another financial crisis or the inability of insurance companies to meet their liabilities, and suggests that the Fed may have limited options in terms of interest rate adjustments.
  • 23:05 The market is predicting a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with two more hikes expected but already anticipated.
    • By September, the market is pricing in a high probability of no rate hike, with a 27% chance of one hike in November, indicating that there may be a pause in rate hikes.
    • Day discusses the possibility of a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with two more rate hikes expected but already anticipated by the market.
  • 25:09 Rising interest rates are hurting people with credit card debt and businesses with loans, indicating that consumer health is not as strong as believed.
    • Every small increase in interest rates hurts more people, especially those with credit card debt and businesses with loans, and the longer rates stay high, the more people are affected.
    • Consumers who are spending from their savings and accumulating credit card debt cannot sustain their spending, indicating that the health of the consumers is not as strong as some may believe.

The Secret to Growing Gold Wealth in Any Market- Andrew Maguire, Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth
Kinesis Money

By understanding the gold-to-silver ratio and strategically swapping between the two, investors can increase their holdings of precious metals and build wealth even during bear markets.

Quick Summary Bullets:

Technical Analysis and Chart Trading

  • Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim of NorthStar and BadCharts have more than 30 years of combined chart trading experience, making them highly knowledgeable in the field of gold wealth growth.
  • Professional scientific forecasters always approach predictions in terms of likelihoods and probabilities, rather than making definitive statements, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on confidence levels.
  • Technical analysis using charts has been practiced for over 100 years, indicating that analyzing price movements based on human emotions and energy has always been a part of trading.
  • The release of energy in the market after breaking through resistance channels can lead to a fear of missing out and a surge in prices, as seen with Bitcoin and gold.
  • To determine whether to invest in Bitcoin, it is important to consider not only the narrative but also technical indicators, comparing it with other investments, such as the S&P, inflation, and money supply, to identify genuine breakouts.
  • Constantly looking at ratio charts and jumping onto the next winning horse can help build wealth in any market.
  • By understanding the ratio between gold and silver, investors can increase their stock of gold or silver without needing to buy more, allowing them to potentially turn 100 ounces of silver into a thousand ounces.
  • The use of ratio charts allows investors to make informed decisions on when to swap their gold for silver and vice versa, based on the performance of each metal.
  • Gold can rise alongside the dollar, as seen in 2008 when gold rose for three solid years without any pullbacks, debunking the myth that they can’t rise together.
  • Gold has consistently increased in value over the years, even as the US dollar index has also risen, indicating its potential as a wealth-growing asset.
  • Ratio charts on the Kinesis platform help investors track the relative performance of different instruments, such as the Bitcoin to ethereum ratio, allowing them to make informed decisions and potentially maximize their returns.
  • Sound risk and money management are crucial for successful trading, as they ensure that trades are entered with a calculated risk-reward ratio and help in managing the complexity of trading crosses effectively.

Expert Insights and Exclusive Access

  • Live From the Vault provides exclusive access to experts and insiders, revealing information and insights about the precious metals industry and its effects on the global economy that you won’t find anywhere else.
  • Meteorology offers a unique perspective that cannot be obtained elsewhere, providing valuable insights for decision-making in life and death situations.
  • The key to successful investing is to analyze multiple factors and indicators, similar to conducting a thorough health check, in order to make an accurate diagnosis and increase the chances of making the correct investment decisions.

Economic Factors and Global Implications

  • Gold acts like a lifeboat in times of inflation, helping to preserve and protect your financial position while fiat currency loses value.
  • The recent breakout of the 10-year and 30-year yields suggests that the current economic environment is more similar to the 1960s and 1970s than the past 40 years of decreasing interest rates and yields.
  • The potential de-dollarization and the introduction of a gold-backed currency in India could have significant implications for the global economy.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Knowing the gold-to-silver ratio allows you to increase your holdings without buying more, and industry experts discuss the impact of the precious metals industry on the global economy.
    • Knowing the gold-to-silver ratio allows you to increase your gold or silver holdings without buying more, and in these historic times, precious metals expert Andrew McGuire provides exclusive information and insights on the industry and its impact on the global economy.
    • Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim of Northstar Bad Charts, industry experts in the Kinesis monetary system with over 30 years of combined chart trading experience, join Andrew McGuire to discuss gold.
    • Kevin, a professional meteorologist, followed the work of Alan Andrews and Robert Roger Babson, who developed the Andrews Pitchfork technology and accurately predicted the Wall Street Crash of 1929.
    • People think you’re crazy for not following the crowd, but there are valid reasons for charting analysis and being involved in this side of science.
  • 04:50 Using supercomputers and technology, predictive tools can determine the likelihood of future events in the market, allowing for informed trading decisions based on probabilities rather than certainties.
    • Meteorology is a complex science that requires tracking every molecule of gas in order to accurately predict the future, making it a good way to study the art and science of predicting the future.
    • Using supercomputers and technology, predictive tools can determine the likelihood of future events in the market, allowing for informed trading decisions based on probabilities rather than certainties.
    • The speaker discusses the use of charts and technical analysis in trading and investing, emphasizing that analyzing price movements is essentially analyzing human emotions and energy.
    • The speaker discusses the importance of analyzing charts to identify energy accumulation and breakouts, and emphasizes the need to assess whether precious metals are consolidating or in a bull run before making investment decisions.
    • To effectively use technical analysis, one must study and analyze thousands of charts, similar to how one would research and compare computer specifications before making a purchase.
    • Knowing how to choose the right fruit at the grocery store is similar to making investment decisions, as you can’t see what’s inside but can assess the probability of it being good.
  • 12:23 It is important to analyze the price and narrative of investments, especially Bitcoin, and consider technical indicators for genuine breakouts; instead of holding onto Bitcoin during a drawdown, it is more beneficial to invest in something breaking out and recycle profits, constantly analyzing ratio charts and switching between winning horses to build wealth, and understanding that having no position is also a position; by understanding the ratio between gold and silver, investors can increase their holdings without buying more, taking advantage of market fluctuations and holding precious metals without selling them for fiat currency.
    • People often invest in things without doing any research or analyzing the price, while they spend more time analyzing the price of a fruit, and the narrative for Bitcoin hasn’t changed in the last three years.
    • Bitcoin’s price fell significantly despite consistent arguments and narratives, leading to the need to question whether to invest based on the narrative or technical indicators that show a genuine breakout.
    • Instead of holding onto Bitcoin during a 75% drawdown that takes two years to recover, it is more beneficial to invest in something that is breaking out and recycle profits.
    • Constantly analyze ratio charts and switch between winning horses to build wealth, focusing on confluences as the highest probability entry or exit points, and understanding that having no position is also a position.
    • By understanding the ratio between gold and silver, investors can increase their holdings of gold or silver without needing to buy more, allowing them to take advantage of market fluctuations and build up their positions over time.
    • Using ratio charts, you can swap your gold for silver when silver outperforms gold, allowing you to hold precious metals without selling them for fiat currency.
  • 18:23 Strategically swapping between gold and silver based on the gold-silver ratio can increase your stack of precious metals even during bear markets, as demonstrated by the example of increasing silver ounces from 50 to 500 over time.
    • By strategically swapping between gold and silver based on the gold-silver ratio, it is possible to increase your stack of precious metals even during bear markets, as demonstrated by the example of increasing silver ounces from 50 to 500 over time.
    • Increase your stack of silver even if the price is going back by tracking the gold silver ratio and using technical indicators to guide you.
    • The speaker simplified complex information into a simple chart using three colors to convey whether a mission was a go or a no-go, demonstrating that traders and investors only want to know if they can enter or exit a trade.
    • The speaker discusses the importance of distilling vast amounts of information into a simplified form and emphasizes the need for education and training in order to achieve success in a specialized field, while also addressing the question of when silver will break out.
    • Gold and silver prices are influenced by the US dollar and CPI, with gold outperforming CPI and silver tracking gold, and silver is waiting for gold to outpace inflation before breaking out.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of paying attention to price signals and subscribing to email notifications to not miss out on opportunities in the market.
  • 28:47 Gold and the US dollar can rise together, as proven by past instances, despite some people’s belief that they cannot, and it is important to question narratives and look for evidence on the chart before accepting statements made by others.
    • Gold and the US dollar can rise together, as proven by past instances, despite some people’s belief that they cannot.
    • The US dollar index and the price of gold have both risen together over the period from 2008 to now, with short-term fluctuations having little impact on the overall upward trend.
    • The US dollar index is not a good measuring tool for comparing the strength and weakness of the US dollar because it is based on fluctuating fiat currencies, and it is understandable that people think gold and foreign exchange markets are directly correlated, but there are significant differences.
    • Always question narratives and look for evidence on the chart before believing or accepting statements made by others.
    • The speaker discusses the misconception that the gold market is a level playing field and highlights the impact of the non-NSFR compliant paper market and the Basel three NSFR conditions on liquidity providers in the gold world.
    • The importance of recognizing and adapting to changing inputs and market dynamics is crucial for success in wealth growth, as relying solely on one fundamental metric without considering the multitude of factors that impact prices can lead to failure.
  • 35:53 Chart traders wait for market participants to place their bets before making low risk trades, while Kinesis offers a service to easily switch between gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies using ratio charts, providing a trustworthy platform for buying physical gold and silver.
    • Chart traders analyze market movements and wait for all market participants to place their bets before making low risk, high probability trades based on the end result.
    • Kinesis users can access a service that allows them to quickly and cheaply switch between gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies using ratio charts to track performance and make informed trades.
    • Kinesis is a trustworthy platform for buying physical gold and silver, as it is audited and has explainer videos on their website.
    • Physical gold and silver may be safer in a recognized bullion vault than in one’s own house, as everyone has their own individual approach to risk assessment and what is right for one person may not be right for another.
    • Prepare ahead of time by utilizing platforms like Kinesis to easily trade and swap physical gold and other currencies, such as the Swiss Franc, without the need for physical storage, and sign up for email notifications to stay updated on swaps and transactions.
    • The speaker discusses their lack of trust in the Canadian banking system and their decision to keep cash at home due to past experiences in Lebanon, where the banking system collapsed and people lost access to their money, and mentions that similar situations are happening in Europe.
  • 45:35 Investing in gold, silver, and strategic stock market plays can help increase wealth during times of inflation, while being knowledgeable and specialized in the gold and silver market can lead to potential growth opportunities.
    • Turkey is experiencing high inflation and its currency is devalued, making life difficult for its citizens who earn significantly less than those in the UK.
    • Gold has an important role in preserving and protecting wealth, and by leveraging it with silver and playing the stock market strategically, one can increase their wealth even in times of inflation.
    • The recent breakout of 10-year and 30-year yields from a 40-year downtrend indicates a shift in the economic environment, resembling the 1960s and 1970s rather than the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.
    • Putting money in the bank is a risk, as shown by the example of banks in America in 2007, and currently Bank of America’s technical chart looks similar to that time.
    • Weighting trades based on confidence levels and managing risk and reward is crucial for growing a portfolio over time, as it allows for higher risk trades with high confidence and lower risk trades with lower confidence, ultimately leading to portfolio growth.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of being knowledgeable and specialized in the gold and silver market, as there are significant changes and developments happening, such as the potential for a gold-backed currency, and by tapping into this specialized knowledge, one can potentially grow wealth.
  • 52:26 The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a core position in trading, making decisions based on intermarket analysis and chart patterns, and using NorthStar’s services for evidence of performance, transparency, risk-reward analysis, and money management to grow wealth and outpace inflation.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a core position in trading, while also advising to detach emotionally from trades and make decisions based on intermarket analysis and chart patterns, with the assurance that their service provides evidence of their performance.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of transparency in trading results, risk-reward analysis, and money management to grow wealth and outpace inflation.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of transparency and clear methodology in their investment approach, covering a wide range of assets including stock markets, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and commodities, while considering factors such as liquidity and dividend payouts.
    • Comparing different assets and analyzing various indicators is crucial for making informed investment decisions, similar to how a doctor conducts a thorough examination to diagnose a patient’s condition.
    • The internet has made it easy to find information, but true knowledge and expertise require hours of research and personal experience.

It's All Over! (Democracy That Is) - Chris Martenson: Peak Prosperity Podcast
Peak Prosperity

Democracy is dead in the United States, with the Democratic party censoring speech and disregarding the rights of citizens, leading to a potential breaking point in various systems.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The true nature of censorship and the erosion of freedom of speech and thought have been exposed in recent Congressional hearings.
  • The development of ideas and scientific progress relies on open and vigorous debates, challenging belief systems and seeking better information.
  • Leaders should prioritize the well-being of their constituents and base their decisions on facts, rather than personal feelings.
  • The speaker finds it completely unacceptable and dangerous that the government may encroach on the rights of the people enumerated in the Bill of Rights.
  • “The illusion of Freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion…you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.”
  • RFK scares the Democrats because he has charisma, authenticity, and speaks the truth, attracting people from different backgrounds who are tired of pretending that unreasonable points of view are acceptable.
  • These people are not going to give up, they’re never going to back down, and they will keep pushing until something breaks.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Democracy is dead, as evidenced by Congressional hearings and censorship, highlighting the importance of freedom of speech; the United States is currently under authoritarian socialist or Marxist rule.
    • Democracy is dead and the evidence of this was seen in Congressional hearings and censorship, which highlights the importance of freedom of speech and thought for prosperity, as the United States is currently under authoritarian socialist or Marxist rule.
    • RFK Jr. speaks before a congressional committee on censorship, where Democrats attempt to censor him for making alleged anti-semitic and anti-asian comments, highlighting the concerning implications for the country.
    • Kennedy refers to a scientific paper from the NIH that states the covid spike protein has a greater affinity for certain races due to genetic variability in the ace2 and TMP RSS receptors.
  • 03:02 The Democratic party fears RFK Jr. and hides his testimony, hindering the pursuit of truth and preventing the development of ideas.
    • The Democratic party is afraid of RFK Jr. and wants to keep his testimony hidden because he represents facts, integrity, and charisma, but they cannot articulate what harm would result from his information.
    • Authoritarians and true believers block discussion and spread misinformation without explaining the harm, preventing the development of ideas and the pursuit of truth.
  • 05:24 A motion to table is being discussed and a roll call vote is being taken to determine whether or not to table the motion, resulting in a 10-8 vote to table it, with accusations of not understanding America towards those who voted no.
    • A motion to table is being discussed and a roll call vote is being taken to determine whether or not to table the motion.
    • The vote ended up being 10-8 to table a motion, with those who voted no being accused of not understanding America.
  • 08:15 The speaker believes that those who oppose democracy and hate America are fundamentally at war with the country and its people, as demonstrated by their disregard for the absolute rights of the United States citizens, such as the right to free speech.
  • 09:28 Creating factually correct information and preventing harm is important, but censoring speech and claiming that only certain people have access to the truth is unacceptable.
    • Detective measures were taken to combat disinformation about vaccines, the virus, and protective measures, but the speaker criticizes a Virginia politician for spreading false information and prioritizing personal feelings over leadership.
    • Creating factually correct information and preventing harm is important, but censoring speech and claiming that only certain people have access to the truth is unacceptable.
  • 11:33 Martenson criticizes the Democrats for losing touch with the concept that rights are inherent, not granted by the government, expressing concern over the potential encroachment of governments on these rights, and warns of the potential for civil wars when dangerous perspectives are held by a significant number of people.
    • Rights are not given, they just exist, and the Democrats have lost touch with this basic concept.
    • Martenson criticizes the misunderstanding of rights and emphasizes that they are inherent and not granted by the government, expressing concern over the potential encroachment of governments on these rights.
    • Countries can be torn apart and civil wars can arise when there is a breakdown in understanding and a dangerous perspective is held by a significant number of people, as explained by the speaker in the video.
  • 14:43 The illusion of freedom will be shattered when it becomes too costly to maintain, revealing that our rights are actually privileges granted by those in power, like the lawyer mentioned, who lacks logical argument skills and should not be trusted. Congressman Jerry Connolly and others who share his views are unfit for duty due to their lack of understanding and unwillingness to learn about the country’s basic principles.
    • The illusion of freedom will continue until it becomes too expensive to maintain, at which point the truth will be revealed that we no longer have rights but rather privileges granted by those in power, such as the lawyer in question, who lacks the ability to construct a logical argument and should not be trusted to dictate what is right or wrong.
    • Congressman Jerry Connolly and others who espouse similar ideas are not fit for duty because they lack understanding of the basic principles of the country and are unwilling to be educated on them.
  • 16:49 The left is criticized for being inflexible, while RFK’s appeal threatens the Democrats; survival in the current situation will be difficult due to a lack of compromise, potentially leading to a breaking point in various systems.
    • Martenson criticizes the left for being ideologically rigid and unwilling to reflect or consider different perspectives.
    • RFK scares the Democrats because he has charisma, authenticity, and speaks the truth, attracting people from different backgrounds who are tired of pretending that opposing views are reasonable or acceptable.
    • Surviving the current situation won’t be easy as those in power are unwilling to compromise, and as a result, something will be pushed to its breaking point, whether it be a war, economic system, monetary system, or food system.

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