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Top Three Videos – July 28, 2023

Dr. Marc Faber - Move away from the US dollar
Silver Bullion TV

Gold and silver may become illegal to buy, but it is still a smart decision to invest in them as they are a better alternative to crude oil and a valuable currency.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “The U.S government and other governments in the western world have horrendous government debts and unfunded liabilities.”
  • “If you have deficits of the magnitude of the US and government spending at the present time, you will get inflation.”
  • “The rate of inflation is 80 percent per annum in Turkey, yet everything functions because they just continue to print money.”
  • Investors should consider having money outside of the US dollar region to protect their investments.
  • “You want to destroy your society? You bring in the Socialists or the Bolsheviks or the Communists…nothing is created by the Socialists.”
  • The economic reset may lead to a move towards total totalitarian regimes, as the world economic Forum (wef) has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with a system run by an elite.
  • Dr. Marc Faber believes that the US dollar will face inflationary pressures in the long term, making it a negative investment.
  • “Invest some money outside of the US dollar in countries with neglected stock markets like Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Stocks and real estate values would go down significantly if money was tight, as opposed to the current situation where stocks sometimes soar by 100 in one day.
  • 01:44 Governments use inflation to avoid increasing taxes, which hurts the poor, and with excessive debts and unfunded liabilities, printing money is the only way to pay them, despite claims of tight money supply.
    • Inflation is chosen as a way to meet unpaid bills because governments can have eternal deficits and avoid increasing taxation, which falls back on the poor.
    • The majority of voters, including the lower and upper middle class, are being hurt by inflation, and the US government and other Western governments have excessive debts and unfunded liabilities that cannot be paid.
    • Unfunded liabilities can only be paid by printing money, and despite claims of tight money supply, stocks and real estate values are not decreasing, indicating there is still plenty of liquidity in the system.
  • 06:51 Interest rates are expected to rise, leading to inflation and a potentially tighter job market, while an increase in people with disabilities suggests they may be shifting into this category for higher benefits.
    • Interest rates have been artificially low, but they are expected to rise, leading to an increase in inflation and potentially tightening up the job market.
    • Unemployment rates may appear low, but the increase in the number of people with disabilities suggests that individuals may be shifting into this category due to higher benefits compared to being unemployed.
  • 10:47 Deficits, easy monetary policies, and government spending in the US will lead to inflation, increasing interest expense on US dollar debt, while the printing of money in Turkey and other central banks will impoverish the poor and eventually lead to negative consequences.
    • Deficits, easy monetary policies, and government spending in the US will lead to inflation, and the interest expense on US dollar debt, as well as debt in Japan and Europe, will increase as interest rates rise.
    • In Turkey, the high rate of inflation has led to the printing of money, which is a model followed by central banks like the Federal Reserve, resulting in the impoverishment of the poor.
    • Running a system without taxation and relying on printing money leads to inflation, which is essentially a tax, and although it may not be immediately catastrophic, it will eventually lead to negative consequences.
  • 14:41 It is recommended to have money outside of the US dollar region as more trade and transactions will occur outside of it, but within the US, many people still only operate in US Dollars.
    • The US dollar will not disappear, but more trade and transactions will occur outside of it, so it is recommended to have money outside of the dollar region; however, within the US, a large number of people still only operate in US Dollars.
    • In an inflationary environment, it is difficult for most people to trade accordingly as the inflation does not affect all prices equally, so diversification is important by holding both dollars and non-dollar currencies.
    • Investors prefer assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies that have the potential to increase significantly in value in a short period of time, but historically gold has kept up with inflation and is a valuable asset to hold.
    • Rent controls can negatively impact the property market and lead to a decline in maintenance and rental income, as seen in examples from Europe and India.
  • 21:50 Socialism leads to poverty, the economic reset may lead to totalitarian regimes, and the importance of qualified judges in maintaining the integrity of the Supreme Court is emphasized.
    • Socialism leads to the destruction of society, as seen in Cuba where prosperity turned into poverty under socialist rule.
    • The speaker believes that the economic reset being discussed is actually a move towards totalitarian regimes, as organizations like the World Economic Forum are run by an elite and democracies are failing.
    • The speaker criticizes the president for disregarding the Constitution and emphasizes the importance of maintaining the integrity of the Supreme Court by having qualified judges.
  • 27:10 Invest in Latin American markets and cheap stocks in Asian markets outside of the US dollar, as the speaker predicts a decline in the US dollar and increasing trade settlement in non-US dollar currencies.
    • The speaker believes that due to inflationary pressures, the US dollar will decline in the long term and trade between countries will increasingly be settled in non-US dollar currencies, presenting an opportunity for investment in Latin American markets.
    • Invest in cheap stocks in Asian markets like Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, as they are neglected and a good investment outside of the US dollar.
    • Dr. Marc Faber discusses his Gloom Boom and Doom report, which can be found on the website gloomboomdoom.com, and emphasizes the importance of personal responsibility in investing, noting that his unique perspective from living in Asia allows him to identify unusual opportunities.
  • 31:02 Dr. Marc Faber advises moving away from the US dollar due to potential losses and winning positions in the economy.

Doug Casey- Fast Track to the Jacobin's "Bad Guy" List
Doug Casey’s Take

Quick Summary Bullets:

Key insights

  • Colia, a member of a group called etec for the world’s best traveled people, has extensive knowledge and experience in visiting over 100 countries, making him a valuable source of information.
  • Putin should consider turning Kaliningrad into a free market and tax haven within the EU, which could improve Russia’s image and attract people from around the world.
  • “The whole financial world is gravitating away from London and Paris and New York for lots of reasons… They’re going to where all the wealth is and where Financial Freedom is.”
  • The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, has become a hero in Latin America, despite the country’s challenges, and has implemented interesting reforms.
  • El Salvador’s decision to make Bitcoin legal tender is seen as a way to escape the influence of the US dollar and has made the country’s president, Nayib Bukele, popular among the people.
  • Dubai’s transformation from a small town with an airport to one of the most developed places on the planet in just 40 years shows that radical change is possible.
  • Casey argues that the state is the most dangerous predator due to its legal monopoly force, while other groups like the mafia may provide safety in certain areas.
  • Casey criticizes the US government’s actions, particularly during the Johnson Administration, calling it “absolutely criminal” and blaming the Great Society for exacerbating the situation.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Colia, a member of the etec group, has connections with the Night Wolves motorcycle club, who emphasize they are a club, not a gang, and have values unlike the Hell’s Angels, but Putin’s association with them could potentially land someone on the bad guy list; a German man teaching in Russia feels freer there as an ordinary citizen and believes Russia has less political repression than the US despite sanctions.
    • There is a person named Colia who is a member of a group called etec and has gotten to know the night wolves, a Russian motorcycle club, through his travels.
    • Sunny Barger and the Night Wolves, a motorcycle club with 175 chapters worldwide, emphasize that they are not a gang but a club.
    • To be a night wolf, one cannot deal drugs or engage in prostitution, and must have basic values and believe in God, unlike the Hell’s Angels.
    • Putin’s association with the night wolves, a motorcycle group under US sanctions, could potentially land someone on the bad guy list, but it is interesting that he himself is a motorcycle guy.
    • A German man who emigrated to Russia and teaches English and German to Russian kids feels freer in Russia as an ordinary citizen and believes that anyone with views like his will inevitably end up on the bad guy list unless they stay silent, but he argues that Russia does not have the same level of political repression as the United States and has not experienced grocery store interruptions or gasoline price increases despite sanctions.
  • 07:01 Casey shares his experiences in the Soviet Union, suggesting living in Congo and Moscow, while also proposing that Putin should turn Kaliningrad into a free market and tax haven; South African farmers considering moving to Russia due to the deteriorating situation in their country, but the possibility of world war three makes it less appealing.
    • Casey describes his experiences in the Soviet Union in the 1980s, highlighting the controlled environment, poor living conditions, and their suggestion to live in the Congo and Moscow for six months each.
    • Putin should consider turning Kaliningrad into a free market and tax haven in order to improve Russia’s image and attract people from around the world.
    • Many South African farmers are considering moving to Russia due to the deteriorating situation in South Africa, and while it may have been a good idea before, the possibility of world war three makes it less appealing now.
  • 11:26 Dubai and El Salvador are becoming attractive options for the financial world, but a social media influencer in Dubai is facing two years in jail for causing a disruption, sparking debate on whether the punishment is excessive or deserved.
    • Casey discusses the best places in the world to be right now, mentioning Dubai and El Salvador as attractive options due to the gravitation of the financial world away from London, Paris, and New York towards places with wealth and financial freedom.
    • Dubai is a desirable place to live with high property prices, and a social media influencer had an issue with a rental car attendant there.
    • She yelled at someone and is now facing two years in jail for causing a disruption, which some think is excessive punishment but others believe she deserved it.
  • 15:23 The president of El Salvador, with a Palestinian background, has implemented successful reforms in a country plagued by gangs, resulting in a significant decrease in crime despite opposition.
    • El Salvador is a safe and pleasant place to live with low crime rates and financial freedom, similar to Singapore, although neither are libertarian.
    • The president of El Salvador, who has a Palestinian background, has become a hero in Latin America for his reforms in a country that was unlikely to change due to its overpopulated nature and history of exporting people.
    • MS-13 and another gang called Prime are major problems in El Salvador, where gang members are killing each other, but the president has locked up 65,000 gang members, causing a 90% decrease in crime, despite liberal opposition.
  • 18:51 El Salvador’s strong leader cracks down on crime, legalizes Bitcoin, and may reverse immigration trends, while Lebanon’s dysfunction and corruption create a system where government jobs are scams for Hezbollah, suggesting that cultural change can lead to a better life.
    • El Salvador’s transformation under a strong leader includes cracking down on crime, making Bitcoin legal tender, and potentially reversing immigration trends.
    • He suggests that living in Lebanon, which is experiencing dysfunction and government corruption, has led to a system where a government job is a scam for Hezbollah, and maybe over time, changing elements of the culture can lead to a better life.
  • 22:13 Significant change is possible, as seen in Dubai and China, but Haiti’s descent into chaos reflects the speaker’s belief as an anarchist that the state shouldn’t exist, as it is the worst entity to enforce rules and other groups like the mafia can provide safety and normalcy.
    • Dubai and China have undergone radical transformations in a short period of time, showing that significant change is possible, but it can also happen in the opposite direction, as seen in the case of Haiti.
    • Haiti used to be a police state where tourists were protected, but now it has become chaotic, leading the speaker to consider starting a diving business there, reflecting their belief as an anarchist that the state shouldn’t exist.
    • The state is the worst entity to enforce rules because it has a legal monopoly force, while other groups like the mafia may dominate certain areas and provide safety and normalcy.
    • You don’t need the government to provide services like making shoes, and the same applies to police and courts.
  • 27:09 High-income individuals are leaving the Northeast for Florida and Texas, possibly due to cultural desirability, while DC experiences a trend reversal with black people complaining about white gentrification and government corruption.
    • Sometimes, in order to deal with an unacceptable reality, unpleasant actions like cutting off a leg or killing a thief may be necessary.
    • High-income individuals are leaving the Northeast, particularly New York and Massachusetts, and moving to Florida and Texas, possibly due to cultural desirability.
    • DC has experienced a trend reversal where black people initially complained about white gentrification, but now that white people are leaving, they are complaining again, highlighting the corruption and entitlement fostered by the government.
  • 31:42 The US government’s criminal actions during the Great Society focused on warfare and welfare, while the speaker reflects on their political naivety during the 1964 election.
    • The US government’s actions, particularly during the Johnson Administration’s Great Society, were criminal and focused on warfare and welfare, while the speaker reflects on their own political naivety during the 1964 election.
    • Johnson’s actions were incredibly foolish and almost led to the destruction of the country.

'Controlled demolition': Expect more bank failures as Fed keeps rates high - DiMartino Booth
Kitco NEWS

Quick Summary Bullets:

Potential Risks and Challenges in the Financial System

  • “Controlled demolition”: Expect more bank failures as Fed keeps rates high.
  • The New York Federal Reserve survey indicates that lenders foresee the highest rejection rates for U.S households in history, highlighting the potential damage caused by rate hikes on the economy.
  • “We’re clearly still in a situation with tightening lending standards and what we’re seeing right now in commercial real estate and that is the next two to fall for American Banks.”
  • “Even if it’s as big as a five billion dollar Yellow trucking with 30,000 employees going straight to chapter 7 liquidation, as long as there’s no contagion, we’ll be fine and that’s what a controlled demolition looks like.”
  • Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett warns of a monthly liquidity drain of $100 billion from the Global Financial system, which is expected to continue.
  • “When there are alternatives to taking risk, people will slowly but surely become a little bit more risk-averse in how they position their portfolios.” – The speaker highlights the importance of considering risk aversion and adjusting portfolio positions accordingly in uncertain times.
  • “My feeling on aggregate valuations is that they simply are not in a place where a Black Swan event couldn’t take them down very much precipitously.”

Impact of Fed’s Monetary Policy

  • “Monetary policy we believe is restrictive and is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.” – Daniel DiMartino Booth suggests that the Fed’s rate hikes are negatively impacting the economy and inflation.
  • “We’re going to keep rates at a very high level for longer than markets anticipate or certainly are used to in order to get that inflation down to Target.”
  • “If Jay Powell is trying to shrink the size of the fed’s balance sheet and change the narrative away from zero interest rate policy…he’s going to have to maintain a higher for longer policy regardless of the damage that it might or might not do to the U.S economy.”

Transcript Summary:

The Federal Reserve’s high interest rates are expected to lead to more bank failures and have a negative impact on the economy, prompting the need for alternative investments to mitigate potential losses.

  • 00:00 The Federal Reserve’s high interest rates are expected to cause more bank failures and have a negative impact on the economy and inflation.
    • The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level in over 22 years, which is expected to have a negative impact on the economy and inflation, according to Daniel DiMartino Booth, CEO of Qi Research and former Fed Insider.
    • Inflation remains elevated after the Fed’s 25 basis point hike.
    • Jay Powell, despite being aware of the negative impact of high interest rates on the US economy, prioritizes lowering inflation to 2% and plans to continue reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, potentially leading to more bank failures.
    • The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time in order to bring down inflation, which may lead to more bank failures and a slow impact on the economy.
  • 04:31 Despite concerns about restricted lending and tightening standards, the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a higher for longer policy, potentially causing casualties in the US economy, although a soft landing is possible.
    • The New York Federal Reserve survey indicates that lenders foresee the highest rejection rates for U.S households in history due to rate hikes, declining loans, and forced bank mergers, despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell brushing off concerns about restricted lending and tightening standards.
    • Booth suggests that in order for the Federal Reserve to move away from zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing, they may need to maintain a higher for longer policy, potentially causing casualties in the US economy, although the possibility of a soft landing was also mentioned.
    • Booth believes that there is a chance for inflation to decrease without a significant downturn in the economy, although it is not guaranteed, and the staff is no longer predicting a recession.
    • The US government has spent trillions of dollars to prevent a recession, with ongoing fiscal stimulus programs, but the likelihood of a recession is decreasing according to mainstream banks and economists.
    • Despite pockets of severe weakness and a slow rolling recession, the US economy remains resilient due to continued government spending and the alignment of monetary and fiscal policies.
  • 09:52 Expect more bank failures as the Fed keeps rates high, with concerns about the sustainability of the economy, potential fraud in fiscal spending programs, and signs of contraction in the US economy.
    • The US employment picture looks good with climbing payrolls, a falling unemployment rate, and rising consumer sentiment, but there are concerns about the sustainability of the economy due to high levels of household spending, record levels of credit card spending, and potential fraud in fiscal spending programs.
    • The IRS is concerned about the potential fraud in the program of paying businesses to retain employees, as there has been a significant increase in employee retention credits and a history of fraudulent underwriting during the subprime mortgage crisis.
    • Congress needs to cancel the program of spending $30 billion a month on businesses affected by the pandemic, as it is causing international travel disruptions and sending money overseas.
    • The US economy is currently surviving on excessive artificial stimulus, but there are signs of contraction with 56 out of 85 indicators showing contraction, and the stock market is propping up confidence levels.
    • The demand for labor is collapsing and there is a lot of smoke and mirrors with public fiscal spending, despite inflation appearing to decrease.
    • Expect more bank failures as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high, with forced mergers and tightening lending standards indicating that the commercial real estate sector is the next to collapse.
  • 15:49 Bank failures are expected to increase as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high, leading to a controlled demolition of the banking system.
    • Bank failures are expected to increase as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, leading to a controlled demolition of the banking system.
    • Bankruptcy filings are increasing at the fastest pace since 2009, but as long as it remains isolated to individual companies and there is no contagion, the situation will be manageable.
    • The Federal Reserve has been successful in managing the economy and may continue to raise interest rates in order to normalize monetary policy and prevent any major financial crises.
  • 18:34 Expect more bank failures and consolidation as lending standards tighten and fewer loans are being made, leading to distress in the banking system.
    • Many companies are reporting disappointing earnings and downward guidance, with one of the largest packaging corporations in America stating that their sales have declined significantly and the anticipated economic recovery has not occurred, leading to a decline in backlogs in the manufacturing sector.
    • There is a risk of more banks collapsing due to falling commercial real estate prices, high interest rates, and the need for refinancing of loans, which may result in more bank mergers.
    • Expect more bank failures and consolidation in the banking sector as lending standards tighten and fewer loans are being made, leading to more distress in the banking system.
  • 21:34 Expect more bank failures as the Fed keeps rates high, leading to a liquidity drain and decreased global financial system liquidity, making it important for investors to consider bold allocation to precious metals like gold and alternative options such as cash for a six percent return.
    • Expect more bank failures as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high, leading to a liquidity drain and a decrease in global financial system liquidity.
    • Markets have been trading based on hope of rate cuts, but the speaker believes that rate cuts are not likely to happen this year or potentially even next year.
    • Investors should consider being bold in their allocation to precious metals, particularly gold, due to Germany’s recession, China’s inability to rescue the global economy, and other central banks continuing to tighten, while also considering alternative options such as cash that can provide a six percent return.
  • 24:50 Booth advises against investing in the stock market and suggests alternative investments like treasuries, precious metals, and cash to mitigate potential losses.
    • Booth does not have any personal exposure to the stock market due to concerns about high valuations and the potential for a significant downturn.
    • Booth recommends avoiding equity markets and instead investing in alternatives, longer duration treasuries, precious metals, and cash due to their potential for less downside.
  • 26:56 Expect more bank failures as the Fed keeps rates high.
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