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Top Three Videos – July 31, 2023

This is How I'm Positioning My Capital to Survive Coming Recession: David Rosenberg
The Jay Martin Show

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Outlook and Market Analysis

  • There is a wide range of topics covered in David’s interview, including the housing market, making it a highly informative discussion.
  • “Over 40,000 investors hear from me every Sunday.” – David Rosenberg’s newsletter has a large following, indicating his expertise and influence in the investment community.
  • The speaker suggests that the current economic situation could lead to the most pronounced tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve since 1981, potentially indicating a recession.
  • “Interest rates matter for the economy, matter for the markets” – David Rosenberg highlights the significance of interest rates in valuations and their impact on the economy and markets.
  • “There’s a real disconnect between what the bond market is telling you and the stock market’s economic message.”
  • “Everything moves in cycles, including interest rate cycles, market cycles, and economic cycles.”
  • “We’re 95 correlated with the United States candidates.” – Rosenberg highlights the strong correlation between the Canadian and US economies, emphasizing the importance of considering the US market when positioning capital.
  • “I think the Bank of Canada now is like damned Damn the Torpedoes full steam ahead, I’m stunning how hawkish they’ve become and there’s going to be an interest rate that is going to really break the back of this thing.”

Investment Strategies and Opportunities

  • “I let’s start with cash. So you’re getting paid roughly five and a half percent to be in cash.”
  • “When it comes back down again because the market’s moving cycles, you’re going to wish you had at least some of your capital earning five to five and a half percent totally risk-free.”
  • “The way the yield curve is going to normalize…short-term rates will come down…and you want to own long bonds and those yields will go down by less but you’ll get a nice big fat return because of the convexity.”
  • “I want to own gold in any form… gold is going to be a good place to be in the next year.”
  • “You always want to invest around the two standard deviation event and what that means if you’re an index investor simply take your profits in the U.S and deploy them in the much more attractively priced Canadian Market.”
  •  “Gold is a good investment because real interest rates are going down and the US dollar is expected to weaken due to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates ahead of other central banks.”
  • “The Canada right now looks very compelling to me, especially if you put together a trade where you short the US market and go long on the Canadian Market.”

Housing Market and Affordability

  • “If we had to mean revert the affordability ratio in Canada. Uh home practice home prices were to be the factor to equilibriate it um. We would have to have house prices go down 25 percent that’s how crazy it is and uh look at we all know. It’s become a major social problem.” – The affordability ratio in Canada’s housing market suggests that house prices would need to decrease by 25% to reach equilibrium, highlighting the severity of the housing affordability issue.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The current stock market rally is not supported by strong fundamentals, indicating a weak overall backdrop, and investors should consider allocating capital to cash or the treasury bill market to survive the coming recession.
    • David Rosenberg discusses various topics including the FOMO-driven rally in the SNP, real economic data, forecasts for the US dollar, rates, and gold, as well as the housing market.
    • David Rosenberg discusses the importance of managing one’s mind in decision making as an investor and invites viewers to join his team.
    • The current stock market rally is not supported by strong fundamentals, as corporate profits and revenues are declining, indicating a weak overall backdrop, and while it may not be an official recession, the economy is running at a slow pace with limited potential for growth.
    • The stock market is influenced by various factors such as fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, momentum, and market positioning, with sentiment and momentum currently dominating, as mentioned by a guest on CNBC.
    • Rosenberg discusses the fear of missing out factor in the market and suggests allocating capital to cash, which currently offers a 5.5% return.
    • Investors should consider investing in the treasury bill market, which offers a guaranteed 5-5.5% return with no liquidity, capital, or duration risks, as the stock market is unpredictable and a recession is likely.
  • 06:55 The potential recession is being delayed by excess savings and increased credit card usage, but credit conditions are tightening, so it is recommended to own short-term treasury bills, long-term bonds, gold, and rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market, while taking profits in the overvalued US stock market and considering investments in Canada and Japan.
    • The delay in the recession is due to the resolution of excess savings and increased credit card usage, but now credit conditions are tightening, leading to a potential recession.
    • In preparation for the upcoming recession, Rosenberg recommends owning both short-term treasury bills and long-term bonds, as the yield curve will normalize and short-term rates will decrease while long-term yields will also decrease, resulting in a favorable return.
    • Gold is a good investment and interest rates are expected to decrease, so it is recommended to own gold and rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market, while taking profits in the US and considering investments in Canada.
    • Investors should take profits in the overvalued US stock market and invest in the more attractively priced Canadian market, as well as consider opportunities in Japan, while remaining cautious about the expensive levels of the US stock market and keeping an eye on the treasury market.
    • The high interest rate borrowing and credit card delinquencies in the American consumer market are driven by a maintained standard of living, decreasing work week, and consumer psychology.
    • Rosenberg discusses the mentality of YOLO and excessive spending fueled by government stimulus, leading to a rise in credit card applications and a sense of narcissism.
  • 14:15 The current consumer mentality of spending all stimulus money and relying on bailouts may lead to fiscal excess savings running out, increased credit card debt, and potential economic challenges ahead.
    • Rosenberg discusses the mentality of YOLO and FOMO in today’s world of acronyms.
    • The current stimulus is different from past ones because people are spending all of it instead of saving, which is a new consumer mentality that will lead to fiscal excess savings running out and increased credit card debt.
    • Extended government support during the pandemic has created a mentality of reliance on bailouts, as seen in the case of banks, leading to moral hazard and potentially impacting the economy.
    • Rosenberg discusses the current mentality of relying on bailouts and the pattern of tightening until something breaks, followed by reopening the balance sheet to bail out bad players.
    • The rejection rate for credit card applications is increasing, indicating potential economic challenges ahead, and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s actions on the economy is yet to be fully realized.
  • 19:12 The stock market is no longer a reliable indicator of the economy, as companies manipulate their numbers and new technology disrupts the labor market, leading to a potential recession and panic selling.
    • Interest rates are crucial for valuations, both in the stock market and the real economy, and comparing them to the risk-free rate is essential for understanding fundamentals and benchmarking.
    • Investors often focus solely on the stock market and try to fit the narrative of a soft landing into it, but this approach can lead to overlooking other markets and potential recessions.
    • The stock market is no longer a reliable indicator of economic information, as it has become a get rich quick scheme and companies now financially engineer their numbers by buying back their stock instead of issuing stock to boost capital spending.
    • The bond market is not buying into the economic message from the stock market, indicating a disconnect between the two.
    • New technology will disrupt the labor market and weaken demand, causing inflation to go down, while the bond market suggests that the stock market’s rally is based on FOMO and lacks economic information, leading to a potential aggressive selling and panic selling.
    • Rosenberg discusses indicators of a potential recession, such as credit card delinquencies, mortgage compromises, and an unsustainable auto loan bubble, and suggests that the stock market moves in cycles, citing examples from previous years.
  • 29:10 A recession is likely on the horizon as current economic indicators point towards weakness, with negative housing starts, negative industrial production, and flat real retail sales indicating a more fragile economy than perceived.
    • Recession risks are still high and the current bull market is driven by complacency, with no fundamental reason to join the crowd.
    • The market experienced a surge in 2017 due to expectations of tax cuts, but with current valuations, interest rates, and the economy, a soft landing is unlikely and a recession may be imminent.
    • Rosenberg predicts that a recession is imminent, citing past experiences and current economic indicators pointing towards weakness in the coming quarters.
    • Negative housing starts, negative industrial production, and flat real retail sales indicate that the economy is more fragile than people think.
  • 33:35 Invest in GICs for a 5% return, but be cautious about locking in for 5 years due to potential changes in the yield curve; consider buying energy, gold, and Canadian banks as real interest rates go down and the US dollar weakens; invest in the TSX for less volatility and correlation with the US economy; short the US market and go long on the Canadian market; Canadian real estate market is facing stress due to high immigration rates and supply constraints.
    • Park capital in gics for 5% return, but consider not locking in for 5 years due to potential changes in the next 5 years, as yield curve is flat or inverted.
    • The stock market will eventually revert to a more reasonable equity risk premium, so it is important to have liquidity to invest when the market reaches its fundamental lows, and there are opportunities in the Canadian market and gold due to their relation to commodities and energy stocks.
    • Buy energy, gold, and Canadian banks because real interest rates are going down, the US dollar will weaken, and Canadian banks are cheap with attractive dividend yields.
    • Invest in the TSX as it is less volatile and highly correlated with the US economy.
    • Rosenberg believes that despite the wide divide in earnings yield between Canada and the United States, the Canadian market is a compelling option for investment due to its pricing and suggests a trade strategy of shorting the US market and going long on the Canadian market.
    • The Canadian real estate market is facing stress due to high immigration rates and supply constraints, leading to inflated home prices and a need for affordability to be restored.
  • 39:57 Rosenberg discusses the lack of response in Canadian housing prices to rate increases, predicts a housing crisis and potential job loss, advises keeping money available for stock market opportunities, suggests a bearish outlook on the US dollar, and recommends investing in mid-tier gold producers.
    • Rosenberg discusses the surprising lack of response in Canadian housing prices to the Bank of Canada’s rate increases, attributing it to the country’s aggressive immigration policy exacerbating the housing bubble.
    • Vancouver is an expensive city due to limited inventory, which forced the speaker to move out of the city to make their dollar go further.
    • Rosenberg predicts that in order to solve the housing crisis and prevent an economic recession, the Bank of Canada will either restrict credit availability or increase interest rates, leading to a decrease in housing demand and potential job loss.
    • Rosenberg suggests that short-term interest rates may increase in the near future and advises keeping money available for potential stock market opportunities, as central banks aim to lower inflation by deflating asset prices such as equities and residential real estate.
    • Central banks acquiring large amounts of gold and the decline of the US dollar suggest that the US dollar may no longer be the reserve currency, leading to a bearish outlook on the US dollar and a potential recession.
    • Investors should consider investing in mid-tier gold producers as they are currently profitable and have little competition, even though it may take a year before any action is seen in the market.

Derivative Collapse: Fortunes Will Be Made | Travis Leicht
Liberty and Finance

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • Fortunes will be made in an inflationary decade or in a scenario where assets change hands, presenting an opportunity to decentralize how we do things in the economy.
  • Travis Leicht advocates for a world where individuals are not reliant on large, failing systems, emphasizing the fragility of overly complex empires.
  • The realization of the importance of working with nature and building a parallel system of cooperation outside the financial structure can lead to fruitful and constructive outcomes for individuals and their communities.
  • “This is something that all of us can do, this is something you can do as a community, is something you can do with or find people that are doing things like this.” – Emphasizing the importance of collective action and community involvement in achieving goals.
  • The derivatives complex is a looming threat that no one can accurately measure, and its collapse could have a catastrophic impact on our financial lives.
  • A collapse in derivatives could trigger a cascading effect, impacting not only the derivatives market but also other interconnected markets, leading to a crisis similar to the 2008 financial meltdown.
  • If a derivatives time bomb goes off due to counterparty failures, it could lead to a freezing up of the financial system.
  • “The opportunity to completely decentralize how we do a lot of things in the economy and accomplish it in a meaningful way in a fairly short period of time.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Decentralizing the economy and capitalizing on changing demographics and system freezes can lead to fortunes, as seen with the popularity and liquidity of American silver eagles.
    • Fortunes can be made by decentralizing the economy and taking advantage of changing demographics and potential system freezes, as demonstrated by the popularity and liquidity of American silver eagles.
    • Silver eagle is Ira eligible and available at a discounted price, call 1-888-815-4237 for more information.
  • 01:40 We need to imagine a world where we are not dependent on overly complex systems, establish a decentralized network of cooperative individuals, and become more sovereign as individuals to preserve our freedom and privacy, while building local communities as a path forward.
    • Travis Leicht discusses the fragility of overly complex systems and the need to imagine a world where we are not dependent on them.
    • We need to establish a decentralized network of cooperative individuals to preserve our freedom and privacy, and by becoming more sovereign as individuals, we can build local communities as a path forward.
    • A hurricane in Southwest Florida caused significant tree damage, leading the speaker to start a tree and land clearing company, resulting in the processing of thousands of yards of trees into mulch over the past year.
  • 04:44 Embrace raindrops and become carbon hoarders through regenerative farming and composting, as demonstrated by a food forest project in Southwest Florida and the speaker’s personal experience.
    • Humans need to change their perspective on raindrops and embrace them instead of trying to get rid of them, and we should also become carbon hoarders by composting mulch chips for regenerative farming.
    • A food forest project was created in Southwest Florida where different layers of vegetation were planted, starting with tall trees and ending with ground cover, and the addition of chickens helped maintain and fertilize the area.
    • Hoarding carbon is a key strategy that individuals and communities can use to achieve self-sustaining growth, as demonstrated by the speaker’s personal experience and the influence of Joel’s mental model.
  • 07:31 Individuals have the opportunity to align with large corporations or decentralize and become involved in farming as the majority of agricultural assets will change hands in the next 10 years, presenting a good investment opportunity for hedging against inflation.
    • Joel Salatin’s books and David the Good’s books are recommended for purchase, as mentioned on the websites polyfacefarms.com and Liberty and Finance.
    • Demographically, the majority of agricultural assets will change hands in the next 10 years, presenting an opportunity for individuals to either align with large corporations or decentralize and become involved in farming.
    • There is a significant opportunity in the agriculture industry due to a shortage of workers and the potential for inflation, making it a good investment for hedging against inflation.
  • 10:03 The price of chickens and cows has remained constant for thousands of years when measured in real money, making it important to secure your own food sources.
  • 11:17 A potential collapse of the derivatives market could have a cascading effect on other derivatives, leading to counterparty failures and a temporary disruption in financial systems, but also an opportunity to launch a new system supporting individual freedom and autonomy.
    • There is a concern about the unknown size of the looming derivatives complex, which could have a significant impact on our financial lives, and derivatives are essentially contracts used for hedging bets and trading.
    • There is a significant amount of derivatives in the market, with JPMorgan Chase having $50 trillion of exposure, and if there is a collapse, it could have a cascading effect on other derivatives.
    • Counterparty failures in the derivatives market could lead to a freezing up of the system if individuals are unable to pay their owed options contracts.
    • During a potential derivative collapse, there may be a temporary disruption in financial systems, which could be seen as an opportunity to launch a new system that supports individual freedom and autonomy.
  • 15:05 Start trading in silver now as a form of payment, store 30 days of food for emergencies, fortunes can be made during crises, and advanced technology gives hope for the future.
    • Start trading in silver now as a form of payment for goods and services, as there are people in local communities who are willing to accept it.
    • It is wise to have at least 30 days of food stored up in case of emergencies, as demonstrated during a hurricane.
    • Fortunes can be made during times of crisis and economic change, presenting an opportunity to decentralize and rethink our economic systems.
    • We have advanced technology and systems that allow us to share information and make incredible progress, making me optimistic about the future.

Bill Holter: What to do when the System breaks
The Market Sniper

Quick Summary Bullets:

Systemic Collapse and Financial Implosion

  • “As a contributor to the gold Anti-Trust action committee, Bill Holter’s commentaries since 2007 shed light on the manipulation of gold prices, revealing the importance of understanding market dynamics.”
  • The deliberate plan of the FED to raise rates and put stress on the system suggests a potential takedown of the financial system.
  • The entire financial system is at risk of imploding, leading to the disappearance of the banking system and pensions due to the overwhelming amount of debt and bonds.
  • To prepare for the potential collapse of the system, it is important to get out of the system and become self-reliant.
  • “You have to prepare as if all networks that you rely on will be disabled for a while.”
  • “The world is going through a bankruptcy and when all is said and done we’re going to look back and say holy cow governments went bankrupt and took the value of currencies with the bankruptcy of the governments.”
  • Holding silver and gold can be reframed as undermining the banking system, potentially leading to negative consequences.
  • The rise of entities like BlackRock accumulating vast amounts of resources and becoming parastatal entities of control and power highlights the need for individuals to understand and question the influence of such organizations in the global financial system.
  • The U.S. treasury’s increasing debt service raises the question of where they will get the trillion dollars a year from, especially during bad times when tax revenues are declining.
  • The financial system may only have another three to five years before it comes apart, leading to a potential man-made reset that will ultimately fail.
  • “Any projection you’ve heard of already is too low and it’s the one thing I am aggressive on and I do see the potential for four-digit silver.”

Societal Chaos and Control

  • The potential collapse of the system could lead to complete chaos, depopulation, and a Mad Max scenario where it’s every man for himself.
  • The collapse of banks and loss of wealth, coupled with the implementation of universal basic income, could be a strategy to control people and ensure compliance with the agenda of those in power.
  • The collapse of the standard of living in the West will lead to a population that is extremely pissed off, regardless of whether they rely on the government or not.

Implications for Individual Rights and Freedoms

  • The gap between morality and illegality is widening, as the push towards a technocratic communism agenda threatens the rights and freedoms of individuals.
  • The Second Amendment was written to protect citizens from their own government, not just for hunting or self-protection.
  • The potential future scenario where biometric scans and surveillance are used to control access to healthcare services raises concerns about privacy and the erosion of individual rights.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Individuals should prepare for a financial system collapse by becoming self-reliant, protecting their capital, and having access to necessities like food and water.
    • Bill Holter is a former stock broker who has extensive experience in the markets and has been a contributor to the gold Anti-Trust action committee.
    • Interest rates have been raised continuously by the FED, causing stress on the system, banks, brokers, and derivatives, leading to the intentional takedown of the system.
    • The entire financial system will collapse, causing the banking system to disappear, pensions to vanish, and a massive increase in deficits due to interest rate payments and reduced tax revenue, leading to a proliferation of new debt.
    • The financial system is bankrupt, with rising interest rates causing bond prices to drop and the foundation of the entire system to weaken, so people should prepare by getting out of the system and becoming self-reliant.
    • During a financial system breakdown, there will be a period of time where credit is unavailable, causing essential services to cease functioning, so individuals need to be prepared to be self-reliant, including having access to necessities like food and water, and protecting their capital by removing it from the system.
    • Hold stock certificates instead of stocks and avoid keeping a large balance in the bank to protect against potential bail-ins and ensure direct access to your money.
  • 07:20 Be self-reliant, prepare with physical silver coins, and consider moving to a rural area to minimize reliance on fiat currency and prepare for a potential system breakdown scenario.
    • Be self-reliant and find a community with similar values to prepare for a potential period of network disablement by testing your plan and identifying any weaknesses.
    • Blockchain is coming, but it’s important to have something other than a digital currency like gold and silver, which cannot bankrupt in a bankrupting world.
    • In a system breakdown scenario, relying on cryptocurrencies and the internet will be ineffective, and the most basic and reliable form of currency will be physical silver coins, so it is advisable to have a plan that includes moving to a rural area, minimizing reliance on fiat currency, and preparing with metals, tools, and resources for self-reliance.
    • There is a lot to discuss about preparation and stress testing for when the system breaks, as there are many holes to consider, and the speaker has previously done a lengthy interview with a highly prepared individual.
    • The lack of knowledge about the impending crisis and the concentration of populations in cities will lead to chaos, depopulation, and a Mad Max scenario, with parents desperate to feed their children, leaving behind a compliant and greatly reduced population.
    • People need to take responsibility for their own actions and decisions, as there are not enough dwellings outside of cities to accommodate a mass exodus, and the value of commercial properties has plummeted, leaving no equity and raising the question of who will bear the losses.
  • 17:30 The weaponization of those left behind has led to resentment and divide, creating a divide between “us” and “them,” but individuals can protect themselves by advocating for sound money, acting with integrity, and relying on physical security measures.
    • The problem is the weaponization of those left behind, leading to resentment and divide and conquer policies, resulting in the labeling and targeting of individuals who hold silver and gold and undermine the banking system, ultimately creating a divide between “us” and “them.”
    • Holter discusses the imbalance of power in the system, where those who protect themselves and advocate for sound money are persecuted, leading to a widening gap between morality and illegality, and the fear that the military will ultimately hold the power.
    • Avoid becoming pessimistic about the future and continue to act with integrity, even though the outcome may be uncertain, and in the United States, there is some fortunate aspect to help cope with this situation.
    • The Second Amendment was written to protect the American population from their own government, and the armed population in the US will eventually resist any attempts to disarm them and cross the line of their rights.
    • Lockheed Martin’s energy weapons and other advanced technologies may pose a threat, but individuals can protect their assets by keeping them off the grid and relying on physical security measures rather than being targeted by directed energy weapons.
  • 24:10 Holter suggests that there may be forces behind us that want a significantly reduced global population, highlighted by the breakdown of food and supply chains, collapsing banks, and the promotion of universal basic income, leading to a concern about a smaller population in the future, while also discussing the potential consequences of giving up personal information and the importance of protecting future generations from the manipulation and control of the system.
    • Holter suggests that there may be forces behind us that want a significantly reduced global population, highlighted by the breakdown of food and supply chains, collapsing banks, and the promotion of universal basic income, leading to a concern about a smaller population in the future.
    • Larry Fink’s BlackRock has quietly amassed significant power and resources, becoming a transnational entity that no longer needs to comply with individual governments, signaling a shift towards a new world order money system.
    • Holter discusses the potential implementation of a global tax system, the emphasis on biometric identification for asset ownership, and the tokenization of all assets on the blockchain, but notes that the success of these initiatives depends on widespread support and a functioning financial system.
    • The US treasury is accumulating a trillion dollars a year in debt service, but during a financial implosion where everything paper is worthless, confidence in a digital currency may not be easily established, especially in rural areas where people may not be willing to give up physical goods for digital tokens.
    • Holter discusses the potential consequences of giving up personal information and the importance of protecting future generations from the manipulation and control of the system.
    • Holter expresses concern that people are willingly sacrificing their privacy and convenience for new technologies, which could eventually lead to a loss of freedom and control.
  • 35:02 The US is experiencing high levels of populism and doubts about the legitimacy of the 2020 election, with a potential collapse of the standard of living leading to de-dollarization and a reset between East and West in the financial system.
    • Populism in the US is currently at its highest level ever, with doubts about the legitimacy of the 2020 election due to the discrepancy between the number of registered voters and the number of votes cast.
    • Biden outperformed Obama in swing states, showing that legitimate outcomes are no longer guaranteed, but there is still a majority of people in the country who believe in America First and populism.
    • The financial system will likely stay up and running for another three to five years, but there will be two resets – one man-made that will fail, and another done by Mother Nature where true clearing prices exist, with the West failing in the reset between East and West.
    • The collapse of the standard of living in the West will lead to a population decline and anger towards the government, potentially accelerating de-dollarization and leading to a reset between East and West.
  • 39:54 A digital currency backed by hard assets may be used for trade settlement between nations and eventually on the streets, but governments will likely want control; a gold standard is unlikely, but a vague association with a commodity basket is possible; beware of NFTs and forced ownership takeovers; alternative systems like the brics currency may be better behaved; the new system offers initial improvements but is still not true money and will eventually revert to old habits; gold and silver prices will increase significantly, potentially reaching four-digit and even ten thousand levels, but this will not be the same dollar as before.
    • Holter predicts that a digital currency backed by hard assets, similar to the Euro, will be used for trade settlement between nations initially, and eventually a currency used in the streets, but governments will likely want to control it.
    • A gold standard is unlikely to be implemented as it would undermine the credibility of the dollar, but a more vague association with a commodity basket is possible, as history shows that convertible currencies tend to lose value.
    • Don’t let anyone put a proxy between you and your physical assets, as non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the blockchain could lead to forced ownership takeovers and rental contracts.
    • The US has historically abused its privilege of being the world’s reserve currency, leading to the creation of alternative systems like the brics currency, which will initially be better behaved.
    • We are transitioning from one abusive system to another, but at least the new system offers some initial improvements and a cleaner slate, although it is still not true money and will eventually revert to old habits.
    • Gold and silver prices have been suppressed for decades, but once asset prices clear, the increase in purchasing power of gold and silver will far exceed expectations, with the potential for four-digit silver and gold going up to even ten thousand, but this will not be the same dollar as before.
  • 49:05 Gold prices manipulated in the West, real money shifting to the East, potential reveal of Fort Knox truth leading to currency devaluation, China compensated for holding derivatives, large-scale blood gold industry in Africa.
    • Kissinger, a key figure in the new world order, is visiting China and likely discussing future plans, prompting the speaker to present various scenarios for consideration.
    • Gold prices have historically been manipulated in the Western trading sessions, resulting in a downward trajectory, while the Eastern trading sessions show a significant increase in value, indicating a shift of real money (metals) from the West to the East, which may eventually expose the true ownership of metals.
    • China, Russia, South Africa, India, and Italy may reveal the truth about Fort Knox, leading to a significant devaluation of currency.
    • China is potentially being compensated at a national level for holding derivatives, resulting in a wealth transfer from the West to the East.
    • China has a significant amount of gold, making them the largest holder in the world, and if they were to reveal their gold holdings, it would expose the Western Nations’ lack of gold.
    • There is a large-scale blood gold industry in Africa, particularly in Zimbabwe, where children are involved in dangerous and unofficial mining operations, with the majority of the gold being smuggled to China through a Dubai refinery.
  • 56:31 The US national debt and the amount of gold it claims to have are questionable, as the gold would have to be valued at a couple hundred thousand dollars per ounce to cover the debt; new money creation is necessary to balance debt and trade deficits; the contradictory approach of tightening monetary policy while increasing liquidity is needed to prevent the collapse of the Ponzi scheme; the US running huge deficits guarantees a recession year; GDP is a fake number for measuring sustainable work.
    • Holter discusses the relationship between the US national debt and the amount of gold the US claims to have, noting that if the gold were divided into the debt, it would have to be valued at a couple hundred thousand dollars per ounce, but questions whether the US actually has the gold and mentions that the debt Clock website no longer reports the gold to debt ratio and the silver to debt ratio.
    • Holter discusses the discrepancy between official data on money supply and the analysis of Shadow stats, suggesting that new money creation is occurring and is necessary to balance debt and trade deficits.
    • Holter discusses the contradictory approach of tightening monetary policy while simultaneously increasing liquidity, highlighting the need to maintain money supply to prevent the collapse of the Ponzi scheme.
    • The recent period of contraction and undershoots in various economic indicators has led to a redefinition of recessions and a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve.
    • The US has been running huge deficits year after year, and if they ever ran a balanced budget, it would guarantee a recession year because the deficit money circulates into the economy and is part of GDP, showing that GDP is a fake number for measuring sustainable work.
    • To engage with Bill Holter and learn more about his views on the world and what actions to take, visit his website or contact him directly through his business email.

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