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Top Three Videos – July 8 2023

Protect your savings from bank failures and Dollar collapse
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Post-Pandemic Airbnb Crash: The Untold Real Estate Crisis w/ Karl Denninger
RTDtv

Bullet Point Summary: The post-pandemic real estate crisis, particularly in the Airbnb market, poses significant financial risks for investors and is worsened by government policies and economic instability.

Financial risks and potential recession

  • It is crucial to have conversations about the social and economic problems caused by the pandemic, as they are interconnected and have significant implications for society.
  • “One has to ask whether the emergency was really about a virus or whether it was about the impending collapse of several areas of the economy.”
  • “The best you can do is get away from high cost areas and high cost things…pay attention to where you live and what you do and what the exposure level is.”
  • “The US yield curve hitting its deepest inversion since 1981 suggests that we’re out of rope and about to come up on the short end of it, which usually when you’re falling, that’s a very bad thing.”
  • “As we get towards the end of the summer, you might be willing to buy puts…the PPI data has some extremely ominous signs in it from us on the services side.”
  • The probability of a significant recession in the back half of this year is quite high, despite the market acting like there’s nothing wrong.

Impact of the pandemic on the real estate market

  • The pandemic caused a surge in rental income for Airbnb properties, leading to record-high prices, but now the market is experiencing a significant decrease in value.
  • “The post-pandemic Airbnb crash has led to an untold real estate crisis.”
  • “When you take the supply of what used to be residential housing and turn it into rental units, you’ve constricted supply and driven up the price.”
  • “There’s not one in ten of the people who borrowed money to acquire those [Airbnb] places in the last two years that’s going to be able to make those payments.”

Government response and economic implications

  • “The problem we have today is much worse [than in 2008] and we haven’t done anything about the root causes, in fact, we’ve accelerated.”
  • “The people who do not want to see anyone else succeed add extra bricks to your boat every time the water goes up, eventually putting enough bricks in the boat that it sinks.”
  • “The government’s response to a real estate crash has historically been to try to inflate out of it, but you can’t do it today because inflation at the grocery store is much higher than reported.”
  • “If you support any kind of activity in this area other than those people who took the debt on have to pay it back period. If you support that what you’re doing is you’re voting for higher grocery prices and higher Insurance costs and higher construction costs and higher medical bills and higher everything else.” – Supporting actions that avoid debt repayment can lead to increased costs in various aspects of life.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 People who invested in Airbnb properties during the pandemic are now facing significant financial losses due to the post-pandemic crash, which is worse than the 2008 real estate crash, with the government playing a role in worsening the crisis.
    • During the pandemic, Airbnb rentals were thriving and property prices soared, but now there is a significant decrease in rental income and property values.
    • People who financed their acquisitions on Airbnb properties will likely lose a significant amount of money due to the post-pandemic crash.
    • Karl Denniger briefly explains their background in financial analysis and mentions their experience as the CEO of MCS net during the internet bubble.
    • Denniger, who has experience in running a multi-million dollar corporation, discusses how the current economic crisis caused by the pandemic is worse than the 2008 real estate crash, and highlights the government’s role in exacerbating the problem.
  • 03:53 The post-pandemic real estate crisis, particularly in commercial real estate and Airbnb rentals, poses serious risks for those involved, with potential complete wipeouts for holders of high-leverage structured products.
    • The wealthy and powerful are always saved from their mistakes, while the people at the bottom suffer, leading to a sinking boat metaphor for the current real estate crisis.
    • Denniger discusses the outcome of the pandemic and how it has affected various topics, including advertising, collusion, and the importance of discussing social and economic issues.
    • The American people need to know that the government has significantly expanded in response to the pandemic, but now that the virus is no longer a public health emergency, it raises questions about whether the emergency was truly about the virus or the impending collapse of the economy.
    • Inflation and the decline of M2 have led to a worsening economic situation, with potential negative effects in various areas.
    • The current real estate crisis, including commercial real estate and the rental space for Airbnb, is a dire situation with serious implications for the entities involved.
    • Commercial real estate loans typically have a loan-to-value ratio of under 50%, so even if the property loses half its value, the bank is not in trouble; however, holders of structured products with high leverage are at risk of complete wipeouts, and this is already starting in many areas.
  • 11:33 The pandemic has caused a real estate crisis for Airbnb properties, leading to decreased rental income and potential mortgage payment issues, while also highlighting the negative impact of Airbnb on housing availability and prices.
    • The pandemic has caused a significant decrease in rental income for Airbnb properties, leading to a real estate crisis where property owners who financed their acquisitions may not be able to make their mortgage payments.
    • Airbnb and VRBO should be held to the same standards as hotels, including code compliance and tax registration.
    • Airbnb and VRBO’s existence is based on an arbitrage game in the residential real estate market, but this has resulted in a decrease in available housing for those who need it, causing a crisis.
    • When residential housing is converted into rental units for tourism, it constricts the supply of housing, drives up prices, and neglects the need for services and housing for those who provide them.
    • Enormous distortions in the housing market due to the legality of Airbnb have negatively impacted residents, and while the government historically tends to bail out industries in trouble, it remains to be seen if they will do the same for the real estate industry.
    • Denniger discusses the problem of diluting the currency through offshoring, which has now closed, and the potential inflationary consequences of trying to bring jobs back to the US.
  • 19:11 The post-pandemic Airbnb market may crash due to government policies, inflation, and economic instability, so it’s important to avoid risky real estate investments, reduce personal financial burdens, and live in low-cost areas to mitigate potential losses.
    • During the pandemic, the government’s payment of $600 a week to unemployed individuals, along with rent moratoriums, led to an increase in the money supply, causing inflation and higher grocery prices.
    • Denniger discusses the potential crash of the post-pandemic Airbnb market, the role of fiscal and monetary policy, the government’s responsibility, and the need to address inflation through political action.
    • The government’s increasing tax burden and inefficiency in absorbing over 50% of people’s earnings is causing economic instability and making it difficult to stay ahead, even with potential stock market gains in an inflationary environment.
    • Avoid leveraging and risky strategies in real estate investments, focus on reducing personal financial burdens and living in low-cost areas to mitigate potential losses caused by government actions.
    • Denniger discusses the possibility of a Central Bank digital currency being implemented as a solution to the financial crisis, but argues that it won’t work because the current system, fed wire, already functions as a central bank digital currency with updated security measures.
    • The structure of the Airbnb network, including similar networks in Europe and China, has remained largely unchanged since the days of teletypes.
  • 29:12 The inverted US yield curve suggests a potential economic recession, with bankruptcy filings expected to increase due to excessive credit spending and savings depletion during the pandemic, while China’s default on debt raises questions about repayment enforcement, and the government’s involvement in student loans has led to non-dischargeable debt and inflated education costs, despite the accessibility of information through technology.
    • The inverted US yield curve suggests that borrowing for a short period of time is more expensive, indicating a potential economic recession.
    • Denniger predicts a significant increase in bankruptcy filings due to the excessive credit spending and savings depletion during the pandemic, particularly among those who borrowed money for Airbnb properties.
    • China’s default on trillions of dollars in debt to U.S bondholders raises questions about who is responsible and how the U.S can enforce repayment, but it is unlikely that the U.S will take military action to retrieve the money.
    • The government’s involvement in student loans, starting with Obama’s administration and continuing through Reagan and Bush, has led to the current crisis of non-dischargeable debt and inflated costs of education.
    • The cost of college education should be significantly lower due to the accessibility of information through technology, eliminating the need for expensive infrastructure, and allowing for alternative methods of instruction.
    • Learning calculus is now easily accessible through self-teaching on a computer, eliminating the need for expensive classes and travel.
  • 38:49 Denniger discusses the problem of debt and predicts a significant downturn in the real estate market due to the pandemic, despite the government’s efforts to isolate the economic impact.
    • The speaker discusses the problem of debt and the need for those who took on the debt to pay it back, as supporting any other solution would result in higher costs for groceries, insurance, construction, medical bills, and everything else.
    • Towards the end of the year, there are ominous signs in the PPI data that suggest potential opportunities for buying puts and keeping an eye on the services side of the economy.
    • There is an enormous contraction in transportation, trade, and warehousing activity, indicating a high probability of a significant recession in the back half of this year, despite the market acting like there is nothing wrong.
    • Due to the pandemic, homeowners who refinanced their mortgages are now stuck with low interest rates and are unable to move, resulting in a lack of migration and negative economic consequences.
    • Denniger predicts that despite the government’s efforts to isolate the economic impact of the pandemic, there will likely be a significant downturn in the real estate market in the coming months, contrary to historical trends.
  • 43:58 Denniger discusses censorship, challenges scientific consensus on diet, criticizes paying for actions instead of results, and suggests financial incentives influenced medical decisions during the pandemic.
    • Denniger discusses how their content on MarketTicker.org is being censored by Google, but they will continue to write about important topics regardless of monetization.
    • They discusses their personal experience with weight loss and challenges the scientific consensus on diet, emphasizing the importance of having a different opinion backed up by physical results.
    • Flying the flag upside down is a symbol of serious distress, and the speaker flipped it over when they realized that the pandemic response was unintelligent and everything done was backwards.
    • Denniger criticizes the practice of paying for actions instead of results in various fields, including medicine and education, and suggests that hospitals should have been incentivized to successfully treat COVID-19 patients.
    • He discusses the financial incentives behind medical decisions during the pandemic and suggests that money was the primary motivator for certain actions, regardless of political affiliation.
  • 50:14 The real estate crisis caused by the post-pandemic Airbnb crash cannot be solved by simply changing politicians.

Craig Hemke and Chris Vermeulen -July 2023 Precious Metals Projections | Gold and Silver Price Analysis | The Bond Market | S&P 500
Sprott Money

Bullet Point Summary: Investors should consider precious metals as a defensive play and hedge against potential losses in the stock market, but should wait for the stock market to reverse before making short-term trades in gold and silver.

  • “You do not want to be holding bonds when interest rates are rising.” – This suggests that holding bonds may not be a favorable investment strategy in the current market conditions.
  • The trend of lower interest rates has been going on for 40 years, but the charts are still pointing to higher Bond rates in the future.
  • Money is flowing into gold as a defensive play due to fear in the markets.
  • “The trend is up even though it’s showing signs of weakness. You don’t just get out of it because you think it’s getting tired.” – Despite signs of weakness, it is important to consider the overall trend in the market before making investment decisions.
  • Despite a short-term downtrend, gold is still in a longer-term uptrend, with a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicating potential support at its current level.
  • “Gold, silver, and gold miners are all interconnected and will move together as one trade.”
  • “The market loves to create a capitulation move where it pushes in the wrong direction against the majority of people, quickly getting them off the wagon and then takes off without them.”
  • “The first pause or pullback can be bought because it should go a heck of a lot higher.”
  • “The whole point is, I provide you know technical analysis and my strategies are all focused around protecting your Capital first if you protect your Capital. The profits naturally come if you get rid of the losses.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The Sprott Money summer sale starts on July 17th, offering great deals on precious metals.
  • 01:27 The weaker than expected U.S. unemployment report caused gold prices to rise, while speculation about higher nominal rates and the future of bond prices and interest rates continues; the bond market is trading sideways but starting to slide downward, potentially damaging investor portfolios, as seen in the significant decline of the TLT ETF.
    • The unemployment report in the U.S. was weaker than expected, causing gold prices to rise, and there is speculation about the impact of higher nominal rates on gold prices and the future of bond prices and interest rates.
    • The bond market is currently trading sideways but is starting to slide downward, which could potentially cause significant damage to investor portfolios if it continues to drop to 2022 lows.
    • The TLT ETF, which tracks bond prices, has been experiencing a significant decline due to rising interest rates, resulting in a bearish chart formation.
  • 04:41 TLT can be used to hedge against losses as bond prices fall when rates rise, and the downward trend in bond prices has implications across various markets.
    • Interest rates are rising, causing bonds to go down, and while holding bonds may eventually be a good investment, there is still likely to be more downward pressure on them for a while.
    • The 40-year trend of lower interest rates may continue for a long time before rates start to rise, as indicated by the monthly chart, suggesting a slow-moving but significant cycle of falling rates transitioning into a rising rate environment.
    • TLDR: TLT can be used to hedge fixed income portfolios against losses as bond prices fall when rates rise, and while it is uncertain if losses will continue, the downward trend in bond prices has implications across various markets.
    • As a technical analyst, the speaker follows price trends and only invests in assets that are going up, preferring to hold cash if assets are not performing well, and believes that when interest rates on treasury notes are high enough, money will flow out of equities and into bonds.
  • 08:36 The stock market is showing signs of fragility and exhaustion, but there is potential for a rally and money is flowing into gold as a defensive play.
    • Equity charts like the SP 500 and NASDAQ are showing signs of fragility, with the SP 500 Index ETF experiencing a big move up into resistance and creating an exhaustion island, indicating high momentum in the market.
    • The stock market is likely to rally and fill the price gap after a recent sharp decline, but there may be a short-term pullback due to panic buying and fear of missing out on the next rally.
    • The market is consolidating but will eventually go up, with money flowing into gold as a defensive play, and there is a level on the Spy chart that would indicate a potential roll over.
    • The recent stock market rally reached a critical level and is now showing signs of exhaustion and running out of steam.
    • The market is showing signs of exhaustion and defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and precious metals are coming into play, but the speaker is still bullish on the market and believes it has the potential to go further than expected.
  • 13:20 Investors may turn to precious metals and miners if the stock market declines, as they historically perform well during market downturns, but it is advised to wait for the stock market to reverse before considering gold and silver as a short-term trade.
    • Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend but still in a longer-term uptrend, with support near its 200-day moving average, while the trend for silver is bearish in the short term.
    • Investors may move back into precious metals and miners if the stock market starts to decline, as these sectors have historically performed well during market downturns.
    • The speaker predicts that the recent rally in the stock market is not the start of a major rally, but rather a potential last rally before a deeper correction, and suggests waiting for the stock market to reverse before considering gold and silver as a short-term trade.
    • Spreading your positions over the same asset can be risky as if it goes down, all your positions will go down.
  • 17:36 Silver may experience a short-term downward trend, potentially dropping by 9% before rebounding, and it is important to monitor its movement around the 200-day moving average.
    • Silver is currently showing a short-term downward trend with lower highs and lower lows, and it is important to monitor whether it will break down or rally from its current position around the 200-day moving average.
    • The chart indicates that silver prices may drop by about nine percent to around $21, potentially experiencing a flush out before rebounding as a defensive play, similar to previous patterns observed with gold and miners.
    • The speaker predicts a potential panic and reversal in the market, followed by a new rally, and discusses the criteria for identifying a bear flag.
    • Wait for two previous highs to be broken before buying, as it indicates a change in direction and higher prices, rather than buying at a low and potentially being underwater for years.
  • 21:05 Having an exit and entry plan is crucial for managing positions and avoiding losses, as it goes against human nature to wait for confirmation before making a move.
    • Having an exit and entry plan is crucial for managing positions and avoiding losses, as it goes against human nature to wait for confirmation before making a move.
    • At technicaltraders.com, the speaker provides daily or bi-weekly chart analysis and discusses asset classes, ETF positions, and a strategy called asset revesting, which focuses on protecting capital and achieving consistent account growth, with more information available in a book or on their website.

Silver To $18? How It Could Happen | Steve Barton
Liberty and Finance

Bullet Point Summary: While there is a potential downside risk for silver and gold, investing in platinum and uranium could be profitable due to bullish market conditions and potential price increases.

  • “If silver does [break the trend line], as Rick Rule says, that would be a back up the truck moment.”
  • Gold has the ability to anticipate and react to changes in interest rates, making it a valuable indicator for investors.
  • “If we see a move to the upside, it could mean fireworks for silver.”
  • The small size of the platinum market, with only 7.1 million ounces anticipated to be pulled out, highlights the potential for significant price movements based on supply and demand dynamics.
  • “This year. Well Warren Buffett with his current net worth could buy the total physical Supply this year 17 times all right. This is a tiny market so um I don’t see a scenario uh where you know that doesn’t make the price go up.”
  • The speaker expresses excitement about the bullish fundamentals of uranium, highlighting the Sprott physical uranium trust’s discount to the spot price and the potential for purchasing uranium at a lower cost.
  • With approximately 200 million pounds of uranium burned in nuclear reactors worldwide, the demand for uranium remains strong, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry.
  • The speaker highlights the importance of locking in the price of silver when placing an order, regardless of market fluctuations, emphasizing the need for strategic decision-making in the volatile precious metals industry.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 There is a potential downside risk for silver to drop to $18, but if it breaks a certain trend line, it could be a good buying opportunity.
  • 01:35 Gold has hit a triple bottom and is expected to turn around soon, while silver may drop to $18 but could be a good investment opportunity if it breaks resistance and touches a trend line.
    • Steve Barton from the Init to Win It YouTube channel joins Elijah Johnson on Liberty and Finance to discuss a topic.
    • The price of gold has been trading along a trend line and has hit a triple bottom, indicating a potential turnaround in precious metals.
    • Gold has been gradually increasing in value since November 3rd when the FED hinted at slowing the rate of increase, and although bond traders predict interest rate hikes until May 1st, gold is expected to turn around in the near term.
    • Silver could potentially drop to $18, but if it breaks resistance and touches a trend line, it could be a good entry point for investors.
  • 06:21 Silver could drop to $18 due to the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raising interest rates, but platinum’s limited supply and high demand make it a bullish investment, and Warren Buffett’s potential purchase of silver suggests a price increase if a deficit occurs.
    • There is a potential downside risk for silver to drop to $18, which could be caused by the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates and the European Central Bank raising their rates, leading to a stronger Euro and weaker dollar.
    • Platinum is expected to have a significant deficit this year due to high demand and limited supply, making it a potentially bullish investment.
    • Warren Buffett’s potential purchase of the total physical supply of silver 17 times this year suggests a small market with a strong price floor, indicating that the price is likely to increase if a deficit occurs.
  • 09:22 Investing in platinum could be profitable due to potential gains and a bullish market, while silver and uranium also have potential for increased value.
    • Sanctions against South Africa, the largest producer of platinum, along with political turmoil and power outages, could lead to a bullish market for platinum.
    • The speaker believes that the ratio between platinum and gold will reverse, potentially resulting in a 4x increase in platinum prices, and they express a positive outlook on platinum.
    • The speaker suggests that investing in platinum could be a profitable opportunity due to its low price and potential for significant gains.
    • The speaker discusses the potential for silver to increase in value and mentions the bullish fundamentals for uranium, including the Sprott physical uranium trust being at a discount.
  • 14:12 The speaker discusses the bullish fundamentals of uranium and the potential discounts of 18% to 28% for buying uranium.
    • There are two markets for uranium, the spot market and the term market, with the term market trading higher and accounting for 70% of purchases for utilities.
    • The speaker explains that the true discount for buying uranium is higher than advertised, with potential discounts ranging from 18% to 28%, and highlights the bullish fundamentals of uranium.
  • 16:51 The deficit in silver production and the need for uranium price increase could lead to a good time to sell silver at $75-80, while the bullish sentiment towards stocks is potentially concerning.
    • There is a deficit in silver production, and in order for junior uranium miners to come online and increase production, the price of uranium needs to increase.
    • The price of uranium needs to reach around $75-$85 per pound for investors to reconsider their positions, and once there are about 200 junior uranium miners, it’s a good time to re-evaluate.
    • Once the price of silver reaches around $75-80, it may be a good time to sell, and the current sentiment towards stocks is bullish but potentially concerning.
  • 19:50 The speaker believes that the bullish chart for silver, along with the tech stocks bubble and potential recession, may lead to silver reaching $18.
    • The speaker believes that the current chart for silver is very bullish, with all the moving averages in sequential order, indicating strong support.
    • The speaker believes that there is a bubble in the tech stocks market, with certain companies holding up the S&P 500, and suggests that investing in oil royalty companies may be a better deal; they also express surprise at the strength of the market and predict that gold and silver will recover faster than the general market during a recession.
  • 22:24 Steve Barton’s YouTube channel focuses on market analysis and interviews, targeting a male audience, to make finance enjoyable and help viewers earn money for early retirement.
    • Steve Barton discusses his YouTube channel where he provides market analysis and interviews experts, primarily targeting a male audience, with the goal of making finance fun and helping viewers make money for early retirement.
    • Miles Franklin is a trusted bullion dealer that offers a variety of payment options and guarantees price stability for precious metal orders.
    • Bank wire and cryptocurrency are the fastest forms of payment for metals, with domestic shipping charges of $15 for orders under 500 ounces of silver or 10 ounces of gold, and free shipping for larger orders.

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