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Top Three Videos – June 28, 2024

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John Hussman: 'The Speculative Market Advance Since 2009 Ended Last Week', Stocks May Fall Up To 70% (June 27, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

John Hussman warns of a potential 50-70% stock market crash, signaling the end of the speculative market advance since 2009.

 

Potential Market Crash Predictions

 
  • A 50-70% loss in the market may be required to restore long-term S&P 500 expected returns to 10%.
  • “Current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50 to 70% over the completion of this cycle.”
  • John Hussman warns of very severe negative outcomes on the left tail of the distribution, implying a potential market fall of up to 70%.
  • The speculative market advance since 2009 may have ended last week, with stocks potentially falling up to 70%.
  • Stocks may fall up to 70% according to John Hussman’s analysis.
  • John Hussman warns of a potential 70% stock market crash, signaling the end of the speculative market advance since 2009.
  • Valuations tell us how much it could be, with a potential of a 50 to 70% fall in stocks.
  • John Hussman predicts a potential 70% fall in stocks: “The speculative market advance since 2009 ended last week.”
  • “It wouldn’t surprise you if indeed we had a pretty substantial Market correction here one that could get as big as 50 to 70%.”
  • Our estimate is about negative 99.8%, so we really don’t expect stocks to do very much better than bonds over the next 10-12 years.
     

Valuation and Market Psychology Insights

 
  • The current level of forward operating earnings is as extreme higher than it was in 1929 on that measure and really in the highest levels of what we’ve seen in post-war data.
  • “Valuations alone do not predict the market, psychology plays a crucial role in market shifts.”
  • “Tech stocks would have to decline by about 83% in order to reach their historical valuation norms.”

 

 

Doug Casey: Julian Assange, Russia Taking the Gloves Off, and Nuclear War (June 26, 2024)...

Doug Casey's Take...

Summary

 

Tensions in the world, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, are escalating and setting the stage for a potential global conflict, with the potential for a World War III.

 

  • Missiles today are very accurate and precisely directed, so the attack on civilians in Crimea was shocking and intended to cause civilian casualties.
  • “It’s got to be Tit for Tat. You can’t get away with this type of thing.” – The Russians are determined to counter the intentional attack on civilians.
  • The tensions in the Middle East and Asia are setting the stage for a potential World War III.
  • The Americans have crossed a line of the Sun that we’re no longer at peace didn’t say we were at War but the exact quote was we’re no longer at peace.
  • The Deep State really does exist, and they reinforce each other’s opinions, creating a dangerous situation.
  • The world is moving closer to global thermonuclear war, and it’s not just about the US and China, but also the tensions between North Korea and Russia.
  • Julian Assange is seen as a heroic figure who has been criminally and brutally punished for trying to improve the state of the world.
  • Julian Assange is not a journalist, he uncovered and released information that the political establishment and government wanted to stay hidden.
 

Alasdair Macleod: GOLD: Explosive Growth Amid Dollar Implosion (June 25, 2024)

Soar Financially...

Summary

 
 

The potential collapse of the dollar and the global financial system could lead to explosive growth in the value of gold as a safe-haven asset.

 

Gold as a Hedge and Currency Alternative

 
  • The dollar could suddenly get undermined very quickly, leading to explosive growth in gold as the only way out of credit risk.
  • Alasdair Macleod predicts a 26.5% fall in Sterling, advising UK residents to buy gold sovereign for a potential 27% lift.
  • There’s a misunderstanding about what a $2400 gold price really means and its implications.
  • Central banks around the world are waking up to the conclusion that getting out of the dollar means getting out of all fiat currencies and into gold.
  • Gold’s value comes from the fact that it can be physically held and is considered legal money, unlike the dollar which is just bits of paper or electronic units.
  • Chinese savers are increasingly turning to gold and silver as a way to protect their savings, leading to explosive growth in the precious metals market.
  • The word for gold in Mandarin is the same word as for money, reflecting the understanding of the true value of gold in Chinese culture.
  • China’s massive currency surplus of around 6 trillion a year makes gold and silver the most effective hedge for Chinese investors.
     

Geopolitical Impact and Global Stability

 
  • The hardening of determination on the Russian side to turn their backs on the west is not a good sign for global stability.
  • China’s potential move towards a gold standard could undermine the dollar and collapse it, posing a significant threat to the current global financial system.

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