The gold market is primarily driven by uncertainty and monetary abuse, not by the quantity of dollars as commonly assumed, with robust physical metal demand forming the basis rather than leveraged speculation.
Gold’s non-correlation with stocks, bonds, real estate, and other assets makes it a valuable addition to investment portfolios, challenging conventional assumptions about its relationship to interest rates and CPI inflation.
The “Great Moderation” post-2008, characterized by low inflation and stable gold prices, was due to massive creation of irredeemable credit by central banks, not the quantity of dollars, leading to incorrect predictions of skyrocketing inflation and gold prices.
COVID-19 pandemic impacts on gold prices were primarily driven by supply chain disruptions, changes in retailing, and fiscal policies like rent-free apartments, rather than the quantity of dollars in circulation.
Tariffs act as a partial blockade on imported goods, creating uncertainty and fear for businesses, potentially boosting both dollar and gold prices, and suggesting investors consider pre-emptive cashing until tariff impacts are clear.
While central banks influence the gold market through interest rate policies, their ability to control consumer price inflation is overrated, as market mechanisms dictate interest rates based on credit demand rather than saver preferences.
The gold basis, available for free on the Monetary Metals website, is a key indicator of the gold market’s health, with rising prices and flat or falling basis signaling a durable trend.
Monetary Metals’ 2025 Gold Outlook Report offers comprehensive analysis of the gold market, including key indicators, historical parallels, and the interplay between interest rates and gold prices.
The magnitude of damage caused by tariffs on industries like lumber and steel/aluminum potentially outweighs the benefits of eliminating government waste, fraud, and abuse, which could reduce GDP in the short term.
Recession risks in 2025 are evident with softening consumer sentiment, staggering declines in employment outlook, and business expectations at their lowest since the late 70s/early 80s.
Retail sales show no increase in unit sales for over four years, a level never seen outside of a recession, even during the Great Recession.
January retail sales fell 0.9%, a decline worse than the typical 15% drop from December holiday spending, suggesting the economy slumped into recession at the start of 2025.
State and local governments face pension shortfalls and must implement counter-cyclical measures like tax hikes or spending cuts, potentially dragging down GDP for years.
The stock market is at 200% of GDP, well above the historical norm of 77%, suggesting it could be cut in half and still be overvalued.
Serial asset reflation has made the stock market the tail wagging the economic dog, with a substantial market decline potentially triggering a recession and deflation beyond Wall Street.
The commodity-to-equity ratio is at historically low levels not seen in 50 years, suggesting a potential mean reversion favoring commodities, especially if the dollar weakens.
Gold’s recent surge to $3,000/oz has occurred with minimal Western investor participation, but emerging interest in US gold ETFs suggests potential for further price increases.
Gold mining stocks have a market cap less than Home Depot, highlighting the underexposure to the gold industry compared to paper assets.
Despite threats of 100% tariffs on BRICS+ countries for dollarization, central bank gold purchases and rush for physical gold delivery have continued, suggesting an acceleration in the move away from the US dollar.
Tariffs aim to shrink the US trade deficit and generate income to reduce the federal deficit, but could jeopardize financing of the budget deficit if successful.
Government job cuts and reduced illegal immigration may significantly impact employment, especially in government contracting, with a potential multiplier effect across the economy.
Earnings expectations have been dramatically revised down, indicating a potential repricing of stock prices as corporate profits decline, further impacting the stock market.
The banking lobby acts as a bully, threatening people and states, necessitating public exposure and embarrassment to counter their influence.
Banking lobbyists consistently lie across the board, making false assertions that can be easily disproven by informed citizens who engage with legislators.
Investors have an illusion of ownership in the current financial system, which fails to provide true ownership rights during broker failures or higher-level financial system collapses.
The banking lobby falsely claims that property rights don’t exist in insolvency, contradicting evidence from the Lehman bankruptcy and Federal Reserve explanations.
Contrary to banking lobby claims, the UCC code explicitly allows for property use without agreement, highlighting a significant misrepresentation of legal standards.
The assertion that code changes were necessary for modern electronic securities systems is false, given that NASDAQ was founded in 1971 and electronic trading existed for 30 years prior to these changes.
Grassroots efforts by informed citizens who understand the issues and engage with legislators are crucial in exposing and challenging the banking lobby’s false narratives.
Public exposure and embarrassment of the banking lobby’s tactics in front of a wide audience is identified as an effective strategy for dealing with their bullying behavior.
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