Stock market overvaluation risks are at precarious levels, with valuations similar to those before the dot-com bust, potentially triggering a recession if a significant sell-off occurs.
The twin deficits of the US – fiscal deficit and trade deficit in manufactured goods – have been neglected, creating uncertainty for countries benefiting from the current situation.
Asset price sell-offs pose the biggest recession risk, as they lead to reduced spending and confidence among wealthy consumers and business decision-makers, impacting hiring, investments, and wage increases.
A factory construction boom in the US, particularly in semiconductors, motor vehicles, electronics, and computers, is reviving manufacturing with positive secondary and tertiary effects on GDP growth.
Tariffs could strengthen the US economy by encouraging domestic production and sourcing, but may also disrupt supply chains and create uncertainty.
Consumer spending remains resilient, with high credit card spending and low delinquency rates, despite recent increases in inflation expectations.
High-end consumers are not saving much and enjoying high stock and home prices, but luxury retail brands like Rolex are experiencing declining sales.
Walmart’s e-commerce growth of 20-30% year-over-year and its status as the largest U.S. grocery store are driving solid sales growth, capturing higher-end consumers.
Long-term stock market returns may be low following a bubble, with analysts forecasting negative average annual returns for the next 12 years based on current overbought conditions.
T-bills offer a 4%+ return with no capital loss risk, credit risk, and high liquidity, making them a suitable investment strategy in the current risky environment.
Consumer sentiment surveys can be misleading due to political divisions, but the Fed’s consumer expectation figures show a small increase in inflation expectations.
Labor shortages in some sectors and a tight labor market may continue to support consumer spending, even as the illegal immigrant labor pool shrinks.
U.S. manufacturing construction is booming, with factories being built and high-tech jobs returning, which will have positive effects on the economy, wages, and the middle class.
Russia launched a multi-vector assault with over 100,000 troops to reclaim Kursk, exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerability during a US intel and weapons blackout.
Dozens of drones were deployed by Russia to swarm Ukrainian positions, causing casualties and destroying softer targets like ambulances and pickup trucks.
Trump fell victim to robust Russian propaganda, repeating false claims about 10,000 Ukrainians trapped in a cauldron in Kursk, contradicting US military intelligence.
Putin’s proposed 30-day ceasefire aims to achieve his long-term goals, including the complete dissolution of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Trump administration’s strategic decision-making is compromised due to intelligence issues, making it difficult to provide accurate information to the erratic and volatile president.
The US’s current Middle East policy is a continuation of Biden’s approach in different packaging, driven by domestic political pressures from Jewish Zionists and Christian Evangelicals who view the situation as a prelude to Armageddon.
US’s attack on Yemen exposed vulnerability to hypersonic missiles from Iran and Yemen, rendering carrier strike groups unsustainable for power projection in the region.
Israel faces an internal crisis threatening its national security and economy, with military refusing orders and the country teetering closer to civil war.
The British Empire’s Roundtable Group seeded the Middle East with patriotic stock to maintain hegemony over resource-rich regions, ensuring resources became collateral for Western banking systems.
Zionist Jews in Israel’s government believe in a messianic eschatology requiring Israel to antagonize neighbors and suffer punishment to cleanse themselves and bring the Messiah.
Iran aims to neutralize Israel or force a two-state solution or one-state with equal rights for all, preventing Israel from being a Western Empire beachhead.
US’s alignment with Russia on Iran suggests a shift towards a more cooperative approach on regional issues, potentially leading to a new era of cooperation.
The current global situation is a multipolar world where the US faces challenges from rising powers like China and Russia, asserting their influence and challenging US dominance.
The gold market is experiencing a confluence of factors, including European bail-in rumors and increased physical delivery demand, with potential for prices to skyrocket beyond current levels.
In commodities markets, narrative follows price, as rising prices reinforce bullish narratives, potentially leading to a gold price explosion similar to the 1970s.
The shadow banking system has less than 1% of assets allocated to gold, which could contribute to significant price increases if demand surges.
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