66% of Americans expect rising unemployment in the next 12 months, a level historically associated with recessions since 1968.
The US is experiencing a private sector recession, with 6,000 store closings announced for 2025 and rising delinquency rates in commercial real estate.
The Federal Reserve is running a $77.6 billion paper loss in 2024, the second consecutive year of major financial losses.
Regional Federal Reserve surveys show a “great divide” between prices paid and prices received, indicating a margin squeeze rather than increased inflation.
Gold is breaking historic correlations due to geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks continuing to add gold reserves.
A trillion dollars of spending from Germany, major financial system dislocations, and unresolved bad debts are making gold the ultimate hedge in uncertain times.
The US fiscal system is unsustainable with off-balance sheet liabilities exceeding $100 trillion, growing at $2.5 trillion annually, while gross federal revenues are only $5 trillion before expenditures.
Inflation acts as a hidden tax, eroding purchasing power and benefiting the government at the expense of savers, with alternative measures suggesting a 12% annual inflation rate.
Artificially low interest rates, subsidized by the Federal Reserve, benefit wealthy individuals acquiring appreciating assets while middle-class savers subsidize this process.
The weaponization of the US dollar through currency debasement and SWIFT banking system manipulation has led to a loss of trust, prompting central banks to accumulate gold as a hedge.
Foreign central banks are increasing gold holdings as a hedge against declining US dollar purchasing power, assigning a 3% annual loss over 10 years.
In precious metals bull markets, silver outperforms gold when generalist investors enter, driven by volatility reputation and lower price.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is misleading as it excludes food, fuel, and taxes, with Rick Rule suggesting the true measure of inflation is 7.5-7.6% in the US.
Entitlements and government spending represent a wealth transfer from younger to older generations, as promises for benefits like Social Security and Medicare remain unfunded.
Rule suggests denying access to social services for people without permits to discourage immigration attracted to the welfare system while welcoming hardworking immigrants.
Declining commodity supplies over the next 5-7 years due to underinvestment in oil and copper production will support a bull market if demand remains strong.
China’s gold reserves may be 10 times higher than the official 3,000 tons, as gold becomes a larger component of their global transaction float.
A blowoff top in the broad market is expected, followed by a brutal recession and market downturn worse than the Great Depression, potentially forcing a monetary reset to sound money like gold.
Short-term market outlook is bullish due to excessive negativity, but long-term risks include a dead housing market and oversupply leading to a crisis similar to 2007-2008.
European indices and DAX are predicted to top out before US markets, with the US being the “last man standing” in the global market downturn.
The US housing market shows signs of potential severe downturn, with oversupply and low activity, which could exacerbate a crisis if combined with job losses.
Gold prices may reach $3,100-$3,200 before topping out, with a real rally expected when the Fed intervenes during a recession.
Declining short-term yields and spiking jobless claims are indicators of worsening economic conditions, but current levels don’t yet signal an imminent downturn.
For the next 2-6 months, a leveraged long position on NASDAQ and 50% investment in crypto is recommended to capitalize on the expected whipsaw effect.
Sentiment-driven investing is risky, especially when aligned with the majority on platforms like X, as the majority is often wrong at market turning points.
Free trade with nations sharing similar world order understanding is beneficial, while tariffs on Canada, EU, and Mexico act as a tax on US consumers.
Printing money and fiscal stimulus will cause inflation in the long term (12-24 months) and won’t solve economic problems in an inflationary regime.
A potential new world currency backed by a basket of currencies and gold, similar to the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, may emerge from a monetary reset.
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