The US faces a potential debt crisis with debt over 120% of GDP, annual deficits of $2 trillion, and government spending at 25-30% of GDP driving unsustainable 3% economic growth.
A bond crisis may occur if US interest rates reach 6%, similar to the situation in 2000 when debt-to-GDP was 30-40%, but now it’s at 130-140%.
The dollar’s upward movement signals global liquidity tightening, reminiscent of 2007 and 2014, potentially negatively impacting stock markets.
Argentina’s drastic measures, including cutting 10% of bureaucrats and 30 ministries, reduced hyperinflation from 25-30% monthly to 2-3% monthly (annualized 20-30%).
To address potential crises, the US may need to print money, buy bonds, potentially reduce tax cuts, and decrease spending.
The 2024 election resulted in a blowout that avoided widespread cheating claims, ending an era of chaos and reducing the risk of World War III.
The $35 trillion national debt, with interest costs exceeding the military budget, is unsustainable and won’t be fixed by the new administration’s policies of tax cuts, regulation reductions, and import duties.
Commercial real estate faces a quasi-bubble with a 40% price drop needed if interest rates don’t fall, potentially leading to bank losses, bailouts, and runs on banks.
The housing market is set to tank with a 40% price drop needed if interest rates don’t fall, as Boomers sell, Airbnb owners dump properties, and Wall Street exits.
Gold and silver are expected to perform well in the coming crisis as the Fed inflates away debt, with the possibility of a gold standard at $10,000+ per oz being imposed by Trump.
The Fed’s new easing cycle, cutting rates by 50+25 basis points, won’t help as 10-year Treasury yields have bottomed and risen since.
Trump’s administration will need authoritarian resolve to achieve quick results, facing resistance from the “swamp” and potential backlash, similar to Javier Mele in Argentina who laid off 70% of the government.
The Biden Administration labeled Tulsi Gabbard a Russian spy and put her on a terrorist watch list, but Trump made her head of the intelligence agencies, trolling the Deep State.
The equities market is in “nosebleed territory” with a potential multi-year bear market expected in 2025, coinciding with a housing market bubble burst and 1 million unsold homes.
The S&P 500 has upside potential to 6,179-6,200 based on Fibonacci extensions, with a possible pop to 6,100 in the next 2-3 trading sessions.
Bitcoin displays a strong cup and handle chart pattern and a bull flag, indicating potential upside to $108-112K.
The US dollar’s rally to the upper end of its range suggests it may reach the 120s, similar to 2002-2001, with the dollar typically rallying during bear markets.
Gold may experience a 20-30% correction to $2133-1925 or $2350-2200 before resuming upside, with the monthly chart indicating weakness until late 2024.
Mining stocks (GDX) are oversold and may form a double top over the next couple of months before potentially breaking down in 2025.
The bond market is in a massive bear market, with the 10-year bond yield exploding upwards and causing bond prices to crash.
Panic selling in the S&P 500, tracked by custom indicators on New York Stock Exchange volume, serves as a contrarian indicator of a market poised to move up.
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