The Fed’s 2% inflation target has shifted to an “average inflation” approach, effectively making 2% a floor rather than a ceiling, allowing overshooting but not undershooting.
Bond market vigilantes are concerned about the Fed’s commitment to inflation control, with the $2 trillion annual fiscal deficit and proposed tax cuts potentially leading to a bond market revolt.
Warren Buffett’s defensive move of holding a record $325 billion cash position in Berkshire Hathaway signals concerns over the fiscal situation and potential debt crises.
Real assets like gold and energy stocks are more attractive than overvalued financial assets, with the macro environment and valuations pointing to a regime change favoring tangible assets.
Insider activity and buy/sell ratios indicate potential earnings disappointments and economic slowdown, with insiders being extremely bearish while individual investors remain bullish.
DeMar Trend Exhaustion indicators and breadth metrics like Hindenburg Omens suggest the stock market is vulnerable to a significant reversal, similar to the end of the S&P 500 uptrend in 2021.
The Fed’s easing in November 2022 may lead to a resurgence in inflation over the next 6-18 months, potentially triggered by tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and rising oil prices.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at historically low levels, with potential refilling triggered by oil prices falling below $70, which could be bullish for energy producers.
Cutting welfare for migrants (free money, schools, housing) is considered a “no-brainer” from a free market perspective, as it protects private property rights and reduces government subsidies for migration.
Expanding citizenship time horizon to 10-20 years encourages migrants to be more invested in local communities and contribute to the economy before accessing social benefits, without compromising property rights.
Mass deportation of illegal immigrants is problematic due to the lack of “magical abilities” for border patrol agents to determine citizenship status, requiring invasive investigations that are unconstitutional.
Expanding the border zone to 100 miles without Congressional approval, allowing border patrol agents to stop and question citizens, is deemed unconstitutional and problematic for freedom and free markets.
The Trump immigration plan contains both good and bad policies, necessitating evaluation of individual policies rather than accepting or rejecting the entire plan as a single entity.
Bold, unconventional actions are needed to reform the US government, akin to Alexander the Great untying the Gordian knot, as the administrative state is too complex for conventional approaches.
President Trump should take decisive actions like putting chains on FBI doors on inauguration day to demonstrate commitment to reform and accountability against the bureaucratic deep state.
Trump’s mandate for peace requires personal calls to world leaders like Putin and Orban to prevent escalation, as critical decisions are made by the deep state in Washington DC, not the White House.
Trump has the authority to appoint Matt Gates as Attorney General through a recess appointment for up to 420 days, allowing control over communications related to the Ukraine incident.
To reform government, ineffective officials should be removed by the roots like Agent Orange, rather than simply fired, to prevent them from growing back stronger.
The US government is likened to a 100-story building on the verge of collapse, requiring a controlled demolition to avoid chaos, though this process will be difficult and dangerous in the short term.
The US has been influenced by Marxist professors in colleges, law schools, and medical schools for generations, making it challenging to implement fundamental changes based on the Constitution.
Bold, unconventional actions are necessary to reform the government, including dismantling the administrative state, to change the country’s direction and prevent further decline.
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