Record-high liquidity and leverage fund exposure, reminiscent of late 2021, signal potential market correction similar to 2022.
Credit spreads act as early warning signs for market risk, with current tight spreads indicating low perceived risk despite high leverage.
The bond market focuses on fundamentals while the stock market is driven more by hope, with current valuations at 21-23 times earnings suggesting extreme optimism.
Earnings growth is concentrated in just 7 stocks, with the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies not expected to grow earnings in 2025, indicating a potentially unhealthy economy.
Household allocations are at the highest level on record, reflecting bullish sentiment and fear of missing out on market momentum.
Markets tend to be strongest between October and May, with corporate share buybacks of $5-6 billion per day in November and December accounting for 21% of annual total.
The current liquidity cycle is expected to peak in 2024 and reverse, leading to lower returns and increased volatility in 2026-27.
The “broken window fallacy” demonstrates that post-disaster rebuilding provides only a temporary economic boost, not organic prosperity, as it’s merely a wealth transfer rather than new economic activity.
The Trump assassination attempts in 2023 were allegedly “aggressively memory-holed” by the government, suggesting potential loose ends and extraordinarily damaging information that authorities want to suppress.
The 2017 Las Vegas shooting, which killed 50-60 people, was quickly swept under the rug with no motive revealed, despite the shooter being a professional gambler and the presence of the Saudi Prince on the top floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel.
Governments are adopting the Russian strategy of creating confusion through psychological operations, as detailed in “Hyper Normalization”, by orchestrating protests, counter-protests, and counter-counter-protests to induce numbness and enable memory-holing of events.
The COVID-19 lockdown era saw catastrophic propaganda and censorship, with state authorities dictating permissible social media conversations, despite following figures proven to be lying, creating a persistent memory hole affecting society today.
The $35 trillion national debt, increasing by $1 trillion every 3-4 months, may lead to violent revolution if not addressed through peaceful means when financial pain becomes unbearable.
Opting out of the system by investing in gold or Bitcoin is viewed as a powerful act of protest against money printing and war, as it removes energy from the machine and boycotts the state.
The concept of mutually assured destruction between nuclear powers is considered a lie, with concerns that the use of nuclear weapons by one side may not necessarily lead to retaliation in kind.
The Eugenics movement, cyclically resurfacing, is criticized as a dangerous ideology promoted by technocratic elites who believe in population control and labeling certain groups as “useless eaters”.
Gold serves as a barometer forecasting economic health, while silver acts as the “money of the people” for millennia, according to analyst David Morgan.
The current “third and final leg up” in precious metals is characterized by a rapid price appreciation, with the last 10% of the move accounting for 90% of the total price increase.
Studies by Gibson and Associates, BMG group, and CPM group prove that owning 10-15% gold in a portfolio maximizes performance and minimizes risk.
David Morgan’s “10 rules of silver investing” emphasize starting small, dollar-cost averaging, and not overweighting precious metals in a portfolio.
Central banks and smart money are moving into gold at an unprecedented rate, with the “run to gold” progressing from a slow walk to a sprint.
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