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so You'll Thrive and Profit, In Spite of It... "

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Top Three Videos – October 26, 2023

With America Distracted, China Makes a Play ft. Peter St Onge

Wall Street Silver...

Summary

China is strategically investing in infrastructure and global dominance, taking advantage of America’s distractions and potentially benefiting from conflict with the US.

Key insights

  • China’s belt and Road initiative, which has invested a trillion dollars of Chinese infrastructure into 70 countries, is seen as a modern Silk Road and a strategic move to expand China’s influence globally.
  • The sale of Greece’s port to a Chinese company highlights America’s distraction and China’s strategic moves in expanding its global presence.
  • While the US is involved in conflicts worldwide, China is strategically running down America.
  • With America distracted, China makes a play.
  • “China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a strategic move to gain economic dominance and control over key regions and resources.”
  • While the US is distracted, China is making strategic moves to insulate its real economy and prepare for potential conflict with the US.
 

Peter Zeihan: The US Credit Rating, Budget Deficits and Debt

Zeihan on Politics...

Summary

The US government’s credit rating and its ability to repay its debt have significant implications for the global financial system and everyday financial transactions.

Key insights

  • “Imagine if you will that you’re trying to buy a house and on your last house you just walked away and left the keys in the mailbox, that’s a hit to your credit rating.”
  • As the global superpower and the sole global currency, the United States holds a unique position that sets the standard for other countries.
  • Debt indexed to the US government can lead to increased costs for mortgages, credit cards, and other expenses, potentially adding up to tens or hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
  • The concern over the US credit rating and budget deficits is only going to worsen, indicating a potential long-term issue.
  • “This is going to get a lot worse before it might start to get better, possibly in the late 2030s when the boomers are mostly all gone.”
  • The concern in the markets is not that the US can’t pay its debt, but that the US may choose not to honor it, similar to what we’ve seen in countries like Greece or Argentina.
  • The US Congress has been used as a tool to shut things down by people across the political spectrum, particularly on the right.
  • The US walking away from its debt would throw the biggest financial asset class into question, impacting American credit costs and causing a trillion dollar question for the economy.

Egon von Greyerz: Global Crisis: No One Will Save You

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

Owning gold is a reliable long-term investment that protects against currency devaluation and can serve as a savior in the face of global financial turmoil.

Key insights

  • The magnitude of the bubbles in the global economy has never been seen before, making it difficult for anyone to provide a solution or save individuals from the crisis.
  • If the conflict escalates, there is a high possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would have a massive economic impact on the world and could potentially lead to a global conflict.
  • The US government finances wars through money printing and issuing more debt, despite being bankrupt and lacking funds.
  • The US is increasing deficits with no chance of financing them outside of the US, leading to a vicious circle where the dollar and treasury debt will become worthless.
  • The escalating debt levels in the US, coupled with the current crisis situation, could lead to the downfall of the US economy and government.
  • The current level of risk in the financial system is unprecedented in history, with the magnitude of the debt crisis and global bubbles never seen before.
  • “We don’t know when all we know is that the risk is there. It’s going to happen could happen tomorrow.” – The speaker emphasizes the uncertainty of when the crisis will occur, but asserts that it is inevitable.
  • Holding gold over time is a reliable protection against the risk of currency devaluation, as every single currency has eventually become worthless.
  • Gold will be your savior in times of turmoil and will help maintain purchasing power.

Financial Market Trends and Risks

  • The markets are more powerful than any Central Bank, as evidenced by the massive dumping of long-term treasury bonds and the resulting rise in rates.
  • Platinum is currently considered a highly undervalued metal, as it has historically been more expensive than gold but is now priced at less than half the spot price.
  • The money supply is drying up, with M2 dropping at an unprecedented level and liquidity being drained from the repo market, causing money to flow directly to the treasury and leaving corporations in need of liquidity.
  • “I think we’ll see rates much much much higher and um I think it’s just beginning.”
  • “Inflation is an increase in the money supply. It is always a monetary event.”
  • “I think you’re going to see big problems and I think they will stem from the banking crisis. It will spill over into the commercial real estate problem. It will spill over into a massive dumping of treasuries around the globe.”
  • Once the first problem occurs, such as a bank bail-in or insurance company collapse, the acceleration of financial crises may happen much faster than what has been seen in supposedly calm times over the past few years.

Geopolitical and Global Economic Concerns

  • There is growing concern about the potential escalation into World War III due to multiple major conflicts happening in different parts of the world, which can impact various aspects such as oil prices and inflation.
  • Geopolitical tensions pose a threat to the Global Financial system, leading to higher risks of inflation and slower growth, which in turn forces central banks to raise rates and creates a doom loop that strains the economy and banks.
  • African countries, such as South Africa, are seeking to nationalize their mineral assets and retain the wealth created from turning raw materials into high-value products, challenging the traditional dominance of the West in resource extraction.
  • The speaker believes that the economy is not in a strong position to weather upcoming challenges, including potential failures in the banking and insurance sectors, which could lead to major events that impact the availability and pricing of premiums.
  • The speaker provides a broad and deep perspective on the changing and concerning world, highlighting the importance of looking beyond the surface.

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