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Top Three Videos – September 16, 2023

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Inflation Could Really Be Double Digits And Will Keep Rising | Shadowstats' John Williams

David Lin

Quick Summary Bullets:

Inflation Measurement and Reporting

  • According to John Williams, the actual inflation rate could be as high as 11% and not the reported 3.7%, suggesting a significant discrepancy in the official CPI numbers.
  • “Inflation could really be 11% and will keep rising.”
  • John Williams argues that the headline CPI is no longer an accurate measure of inflation and suggests using alternative data, such as the methodology used by ShadowStats, to get a more realistic understanding of inflation levels.
  • Inflation could really be 11% and will keep rising. 
  • “We’ve got a real risk of the inflation problem getting out of control here in the next year or two.”
  • “I think you’re going to see increasingly higher inflation.”

Government Spending and Economic Impact

  • The government manipulated inflation numbers to reduce the amount of adjustments made to Social Security recipients, potentially leaving them without adequate coverage for rising inflation.
  • “The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates is contributing to the economic decline, which will likely result in a deterioration of the standard of living.”
  • The increasing flow of federal government spending, combined with the elimination of the debt ceiling, is likely to result in higher inflation, while wages will not keep up with it, leading to a weaker economy for the average person.
  • “I think you’re going to see a very uncontrolled circumstance with the government rapidly spending money that they can’t pay off.”
  • “The Federal Reserve’s primary goal has been to keep the banking system afloat, prioritizing liquidity and profitability for banks rather than solely focusing on stimulating economic activity or controlling inflation.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Inflation could be as high as 11% and is expected to continue rising, fueled by heavy money creation and fluctuating oil and gasoline prices, with alternative data suggesting that the official CPI measure is not accurate.
    • Inflation could actually be 11% and is expected to keep rising, according to John Williams of Shadowstats, despite the reported CPI numbers of 3.7% and 4.3%.
    • Inflation could be much higher than reported due to heavy money creation by the Federal Reserve and fluctuations in oil and gasoline prices.
    • Inflation was rising before the election, but the strategic petroleum reserve was used to bring gasoline prices down; however, now gasoline prices are rising again, leading to higher inflation.
    • Gasoline prices are expected to increase by another 10% in the next two to three months, which will contribute to higher inflation according to the speaker.
    • Inflation is actually much higher than reported, with the economy in a deepening recession, and alternative data suggests that the official CPI measure is not an accurate reflection of true inflation.
  • 06:40 The government manipulated inflation numbers, resulting in unfairness for Social Security recipients, and the current CPI could be around 11.5% instead of the reported 3.7%, primarily due to falling oil prices and the money supply, which the Federal Reserve needs to bring under control.
    • The government manipulated inflation numbers to reduce the amount of money given to Social Security recipients, which was unfair to those who relied on it to cover rising costs.
    • The government manipulated the inflation measure by changing the way housing costs are calculated, resulting in a lower headline CPI, and the speaker believes the government should have kept the original methodology.
    • The speaker argues that if certain changes had not been made to the reporting of inflation, the current CPI would be around 11.5% instead of the reported 3.7%.
    • The high level of inflation is primarily due to the falling oil price and the money supply, and there is a possibility that the money supply could revert back to positive growth in the next 12 to 24 months.
    • The speaker suggests that the Federal Reserve needs to bring the money supply under control to combat rising inflation, as there was a significant increase in money growth following the pandemic that has yet to be balanced.
  • 13:39 The economy is contracting and showing signs of trouble, with negative retail sales and unemployment numbers, while inflation is rising and broader measures of unemployment are more meaningful.
    • The economy is currently contracting and showing signs of trouble, with negative retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment numbers, and the GDP heavily influenced by oil gimmicks, making it difficult to maintain stability.
    • The economy is not booming and the Fed raised rates to provide liquidity and profitability to the fragile banking system, while not worrying about containing inflation.
    • President Biden claims that he has created more jobs in two years than any other president in a four-year term, with 13.5 million jobs added since he took office.
    • The unemployment rate has been below 14 percent for the last 19 months, with the addition of a million new jobs and the highest share of working-age Americans in the workforce in the past 20 years, contradicting the nonpartisan Congressional budget office’s prediction.
    • The unemployment rate is not a meaningful indicator of the economy as the government has changed the way it calculates it, and those who are not actively looking for work are not counted as unemployed.
    • Inflation is rising and broader measures of unemployment are more meaningful as people become discouraged and stop looking for work due to the lack of job opportunities during the pandemic.
  • 21:07 The pandemic has distorted economic statistics, leading to inaccuracies in the low unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s actions have triggered a recession, resulting in a higher inflation rate and a potential decline in quality of life and income.
    • The unemployment rate appears low due to distortions caused by the pandemic, resulting in variations and inaccuracies in economic statistics.
    • The Federal Reserve’s actions have triggered a recession, as indicated by the minimal but noticeable increase in the unemployment rate resembling the pandemic collapse in 2020.
    • The speaker argues that the government’s unemployment numbers are lower because they do not include long-term discouraged workers who are not actively looking for work, resulting in a higher inflation rate than reported.
    • The speaker believes that the economy is weakening and that there will likely be a deterioration in the quality of life and income due to rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s actions.
  • 25:42 Inflation could be as high as 11% due to increased money supply and an inflationary environment, leading to rising gas prices, unemployment, and a weaker economy for the average person, as well as a wealth transfer from Baby Boomers to younger generations impacting prices and the economy.
    • Inflation is rising and could be as high as 11%, driven by a significant increase in the money supply and an underlying inflationary environment.
    • Gasoline prices are catching up to reality and the speaker anticipates unemployment to continue rising unless the government or the FED takes more effective action.
    • Inflation is expected to rise due to increased federal government spending, but wages will not keep up, resulting in a weaker economy for the average person, and there is also an expected wealth transfer from Baby Boomers to younger generations that will impact prices and the economy.
  • 29:00 Inflation could rise to 11% and have negative implications, potentially leading to increased government spending that may be difficult to control, as ongoing demographic shifts and increased spending by the younger generation contribute to the problem.
    • The impact of inflation will be slow and gradual, as it takes time for people to lose trust in the currency.
    • Inflation is expected to rise and could reach 11%, leading to potential negative implications and increased government spending that may be difficult to control.
    • There is a risk of inflation getting out of control in the next year or two, with the younger generation spending more on near-term needs and ongoing demographic shifts contributing to the problem.
  • 33:28 The Federal Reserve needs to cut back on money supply growth to control rising inflation, which may result in higher interest rates and implications for credit card and mortgage rates.
    • The Federal Reserve needs to severely cut back its money supply growth in order to contain inflation, which is expected to continue rising.
    • Inflation is higher than reported and the Federal Reserve may not cut rates soon because they are focused on keeping the banking system stable.
    • The speaker suggests that if the inflation rate does not return to two percent in the future, the FED funds rate may stay elevated at around five percent, which would have implications for credit card rates, mortgage rates, and other interest rates.
    • The speaker discusses the instability caused by the pandemic and the Fed’s efforts to keep the banking system stable, potentially leading to permanently higher interest rates.
  • 37:59 John Williams discusses his work and Shadowstats website, which provides archives, commentary, graphs, and data on inflation and unemployment, and offers subscriptions for interested individuals to receive updates via email.

Christopher Aaron: Gold and the Miners - Why Isn't There More Interest?

Palisades Gold Radio

Quick Summary Bullets:

Market Analysis and Predictions

  • Christopher Aaron suggests that his approach to the markets differs from most investors, as he focuses on fundamental viewpoints such as the economy, debt, and the long-term trend of fiat currencies.
  • The stagnant Dow to gold ratio suggests that there may be a discrepancy between the performance of gold and the stock market, highlighting the potential undervaluation of gold.
  • According to the speaker, within the next 12 to 24 months, there will be an impulsive move in either the direction of mainstream stocks or gold, which could have a generational impact.
  • Physical gold is considered the premier generational form of savings, making it a reliable way to preserve wealth over long periods of time.
  • Aaron predicts that gold could potentially reach levels as high as $2300-$2500 within the next 18 to 24 months, indicating a potential dramatic increase in value.
  • “So many of the people in this industry in the investment industry are literally storytellers. Their job is to tell you a story and they get paid if you click on the video or on the article.”

Socioeconomic Impact and Paradigm Shifts

  • “If you were to tell the established industry of the whale oil industry that one generation later they’ll all be out of business and that we’ll be mining extracting oil from the ground that occurs naturally, they would say you’re totally crazy you’re off your rock.”
  • Our potential as a species is experiencing exponential growth, as evidenced by our progress from horses to the surface of Mars in just 110 years.
  • There is a major paradigm shift happening in the global economy that will impact not just mining enterprises, but the entire world.
  • Investing in precious metals is seen as a way to fight against the corruption of central banking and fiat currency.
  • “It’s not just the numbers in your account that provide you the freedom. It’s everything all of the laws and the sovereignty that you retain and the freedom that that monetary compensation allows you to have.”

Historical Performance and Trends

  • During the major bull markets in gold in the 1970s and 2000s, the Dow Jones lost a significant percentage of its value relative to gold, highlighting the strength and attractiveness of gold during times of financial crisis.
  • The Euro breaking down against the dollar indicates a long-term trend of dollar strength, potentially lasting for 35 to 40 years.
  • The price data suggests a consistent trend of strength in the US dollar, with higher highs and higher lows over the past 15 years, indicating its continued dominance as a reserve currency.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Despite a recent period of low activity, gold’s value is expected to increase due to the current economic environment, but the sideways price action has negatively impacted interest in the gold mining sector, causing many to look for other investment opportunities.
    • Gold’s value is expected to increase due to the current economic environment, despite a recent period of low activity in the precious metals market.
    • The valuations of gold mining companies, both large and small, have significantly decreased in the past few years despite the price of gold being relatively stable.
    • Investor psychology is largely influenced by the movement of an asset class, and in the case of gold, the sideways price action over the past three years has negatively impacted interest, with investors waiting for a catalyst to determine if it will resolve to the upside or if it has reached a long-term top.
    • The gold mining sector has been negatively affected by sideways price action, causing many people to lose interest and look for other investment opportunities, but the speaker approaches the market differently by considering fundamental viewpoints and the long-term trend of fiat currencies.
    • Starting with fundamental beliefs and extrapolating price action can be a dangerous way to evaluate markets, as evidenced by those who correctly understood the housing market problems leading up to the 2008 crash but were still blindsided.
    • Investing based solely on fundamentals is not reliable because even if one is correct on certain fundamental factors, it does not guarantee that other factors will align accordingly.
  • 06:57 Despite the flat price of gold, there is a lack of interest in the gold miners market, possibly due to other factors at play and the importance of considering different perspectives.
    • You cannot accurately predict price expectations based on the sum of information because it is impossible to know if all the fundamental narratives impacting the market have been considered.
    • Place emphasis on the price of assets as investors, rather than getting caught up in the debate over various fundamentals that may or may not be influencing the market.
    • Having tunnel vision and focusing only on a few narratives or data points can prevent us from considering other perspectives and potentially being wrong in our beliefs.
    • Focusing solely on the problems with fiat currency and unsustainable spending is correct, but it is important to consider what is happening in other areas and not just in one’s own hometown.
    • There is a lack of interest in the gold miners market despite the relatively flat price of gold, and the speaker suggests that there may be other factors at play that are impacting this market.
  • 13:10 The price of gold has doubled in the last seven years, but the ratio between gold and the stock market has remained flat, indicating a potential upcoming impulsive move either upward in favor of mainstream stocks or downward in favor of gold within the next 12 to 24 months.
    • The price of gold has doubled in the last seven years, while the ratio between gold and the stock market has remained flat.
    • The average investor who has invested in stock index funds has performed just as well as precious metals investors, as both asset classes have doubled in value, which is a rare occurrence.
    • Gold has never been in a bull market where its value has doubled while the Dow to gold ratio has remained stagnant, which has occurred during the 1970s and the 2000s.
    • The price of gold has doubled over the last eight years, but the ratio between gold and mainstream stocks has remained flat, indicating a potential upcoming impulsive move either upward in favor of mainstream stocks or downward in favor of gold within the next 12 to 24 months.
    • The stagnant Dow to gold ratio over the past eight years has caused mining company valuations to remain low, with only brief periods of performance since 2015.
  • 19:03 Investors should consider the potential growth in technology and diversify investments in various themes and trends, while also recognizing the importance of savings and the potential impact of advancements in technology on the gold and mining industry.
    • Investors in precious metals need to consider the debate between gold and fiat assets as a secondary debate compared to the potential growth in technology, but the importance of savings should not be neglected.
    • Physical gold is the premier form of savings for preserving wealth over time, but the question arises whether this is a time for focusing on savings or investing in the growth of our civilization and technology.
    • The whale oil industry in the 1800s faced a similar situation to the gold and mining industry today, where a major shift in technology and energy sources could potentially render the industry obsolete.
    • The discovery of oil in the 1800s and its impact on the whale oil industry serves as an example of how industries can be disrupted by natural resource extraction, highlighting the need to consider the potential of gold and Fiat assets.
    • Within the next decade, there is potential for exponential growth in our species’ capabilities, such as reaching Mars, despite the occasional storms and financial crises.
    • There is a major paradigm shift happening in the global economy due to advancements in technology and mining capabilities, and as investors, it is important to recognize and diversify investments in various themes and trends.
  • 28:22 Gold and the mining industry are expected to see a breakout and reach new peaks, with potential levels of 2300 to 2500, while it is important to focus on raw materials supporting industry and energy, diversify savings with physical metals, and consider investing in growth industries like space exploration.
    • Gold and the mining industry have seen a trend of three peaks near the 2075 level, with a current test at 1880, suggesting a possible breakout in gold.
    • Gold is expected to make one more significant peak in the next one to two years, potentially reaching levels of 2300 to 2500, providing hope for the precious metals sector.
    • Expectations for the precious metals sector to perform well are still present, but it is important to consider the overall strength of the US dollar and focus on the raw materials supporting industry and energy in the mining sector in the later part of this decade and through the 2030s.
    • Raw materials, such as lithium battery metals and uranium, are necessary for the transition to a more sustainable energy future and the growth of industry, making it important to diversify savings with physical metals.
    • Investors should consider the potential for radical transformation in growth industries, such as space exploration, as at some point in the future, humans will leave planet Earth and explore new worlds.
    • Investing in companies that are exploring and developing new territories is more important than saving during times of instability in currency and government spending.
  • 35:36 Investment in raw materials and enterprises drives innovation and allows for the discovery of new frontiers, but many investment industry narratives are just stories, and the euro’s breakdown against the dollar suggests a long-term trend of dollar strength.
    • Investment in raw materials and enterprises is crucial for the exploration of new technologies and advancements in life, as it drives innovation and allows for the discovery of new frontiers.
    • Aaron explains that many people in the investment industry are storytellers who create narratives to extract fees, and the talk about brics countries creating a new currency or abandoning the US dollar is just a story.
    • The 35-year rising trend in favor of the euro has been decisively broken, as shown by the failure to get back above the trend line.
    • The Euro breaking down against the dollar indicates a long-term trend of dollar strength, potentially lasting for 35 to 40 years.
  • 41:11 Aaron discusses the cyclical nature of gold and miners, the strength of the US dollar, and the importance of investing in precious metals to fight against corruption, while emphasizing the potential for increased wealth and individual freedom in the future.
    • He discusses the cyclical nature of gold and miners and mentions that if the Euro to USD reaches the 112 level, it would indicate a false signal in the market.
    • Discusses the strength of the US dollar versus the Euro and other fiat currencies, stating that while fiat currencies may lose value over time, the current market indicates that the US dollar is expected to continue rallying.
    • Discusses the trend of the US dollar and argues that there is no evidence to suggest that it will lose its status as the world reserve currency in the near future.
    • Investing in precious metals is seen as a way to fight against the corruption of central banking and fiat currency, and the speaker, who has been a precious metals investor for over 15 years, believes that central banking should be eliminated.
    • We should focus on thriving as a species and exploring new technologies and resources rather than solely relying on gold to win the battle against fiat currency.
    • Christopher emphasizes the importance of not only focusing on the numbers in our account, but also on the freedom and sovereignty that monetary compensation provides, highlighting the potential for increased wealth and individual freedom in the future.
  • 50:02 There is no investment advice given in this podcast, and listeners are encouraged to educate themselves and make their own decisions.

Tucker Carlson Episode 24: Interview with Argentina Presidential Candidate Javier Milei

Tucker Carlson/ Twitter- X

Ep. 24  Argentina’s next president could be Javier Milei. Who is he?

Tucker traveled to Buenos Aires to speak with him and find out.

  • (0:00) Intro
  • (3:32) Inflation
  • (6:00) Gender ideology
  • (9:57) Abortion
  • (11:45) Pope Francis’ affinity for dictators
  • (14:45) Architecture
  • (17:52) Advice to Americans and Donald Trump
  • (22:23) Climate change
  • (27:55) China
  • (29:18) Prayer
  • (30:39) Violent political protests

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