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Top Three Videos – September 4, 2023

Global Financial Crisis 2.0: Black Swan Event Coming, What Yield Curve Is Telling Us — George Gammon

Kitco NEWS

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “An inverted yield curve has incredible accuracy as far as its predictive power, with almost a perfect track record in signaling recessions.”
  • Warren Buffett and other savvy investors may have insights into the reasons behind the inverted yield curve, which is why they position themselves accordingly in the market.
  • “What would prompt him to drop rates from let’s say 5.5 percent straight back down to four three two maybe even back down to zero like we saw during covid? Well, that would require some sort of Black Swan that would create some sort or that would require some sort of like I said unfortunately world war or a GFC 2.0 and I think that’s what that yield curve is predicting right now.”
  • “Housing prices in China’s manufacturing sector went down by nine percent in July, signaling a potential crisis in an economy heavily reliant on real estate, with 30 percent of GDP and 70 percent of Chinese wealth tied to it.”
  • “The real estate crash alone wouldn’t have caused a global financial crisis, but it was the use of mortgage-backed securities as collateral in the global monetary system that created a massive increase in perceived counterparty risk with the banking system.”
  • Signs of weakness in China’s economy include slowing GDP, a significant drop in exports, deflation, and a property crisis with the bankruptcy filing of China’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group.
  • “I want to place whatever bet the Insiders have, because the inverted yield curve is telling me that this is going to be a hard landing.”
  • “I personally think that we are in the midst of a long-term commodity super cycle…if you do have this big recession hard. Landing that the yield curve is predicting well commodity price is going to absolutely tank but what I want to do is. I want to use that as an opportunity…keeping as much liquidity as I possibly can…getting paid 5.5 percent while you wait to see how this plays out.” – Gammon believes in the potential of a commodity super cycle and plans to capitalize on a recession

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 An inverted yield curve historically predicts recessions, suggesting a global intelligence syndicate with insider information, as exemplified by the lab leak scenario and Chinese military games being super spreader events.
    • An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of an impending recession, with the exception of one instance in the mid-1960s, making it the most accurate economic indicator, and suggesting the existence of a global intelligence syndicate that may have insider information about the bigger picture.
    • Financial insiders with access to insider information, including pension fund managers and banksters like James Me Diamond, have details that the general public and even media outlets like CNBC don’t have, as exemplified by the lab leak scenario of COVID-19 in August 2019 and the Chinese military games being the first super spreader event.
    • The yield curve inverted in August 2019, suggesting a potential financial crisis, but it was not caused by the repo market blow-up in September, indicating a possible correlation with the lab leak in Wuhan.
  • 03:46 Financial insiders anticipate a global pandemic and its severity, leading to increased demand for long-term treasuries and an inverted yield curve due to the Federal Reserve raising rates at the front end.
    • A leaked information about a potential global pandemic spreads through a chain of communication, reaching influential figures in the financial industry who recognize the seriousness of the situation and anticipate it to be worse than previous outbreaks.
    • Paul Tudor Jones sends his assistant to Wuhan to gather information from a scientist about the potential severity of a problem, highlighting the power of financial insiders.
    • Paul Tudor Jones is buying long-term treasuries, causing increased demand, higher prices, and lower yields, while the Federal Reserve raising rates at the front end of the curve is causing the yield curve to invert, which is accurately predicted by financial insiders who have access to future information.
  • 06:13 The inverted yield curve suggests potential risks in the global financial system, with the possibility of a global financial crisis and the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy.
    • The inverted yield curve suggests potential risks in the global financial system, and there are three possible outcomes: it will either remain inverted, uninvert, or steepen out.
    • The yield curve is indicating a potential global financial crisis, with the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to uninvert the curve and stimulate the economy.
  • 08:04 The inverted yield curve is predicting a potential Global Financial Crisis 2.0, and Jerome Powell’s concern about his legacy may prevent him from lowering interest rates unless a Black Swan event occurs.
    • Jerome Powell has a strong incentive to keep interest rates high due to his concern about his legacy, but a drop in rates would require a Black Swan event like a world war or a Global Financial Crisis 2.0, which is what the yield curve is currently predicting.
    • Gammon speculates on the potential knowledge reflected in trades made by Paul Tudor Jones and the inverted yield curve, emphasizing the accuracy of the yield curve in predicting recessions.
  • 10:30 Senator Richard Burr, chair of the intelligence committee, sold hospitality industry stocks and bought Treasury Securities before the pandemic, suggesting he had inside information.
    • In February 2020, a government official, both a Republican and Democrat, sold all his stocks and bought the 10-year treasury, anticipating a crisis and wanting to secure payment.
    • Senator Richard Burr, who was chair of the intelligence committee, sold millions of dollars worth of stock in the hospitality industry before the coronavirus pandemic hit, but also bought Treasury Securities, indicating he had inside information.
  • 12:23 The inverted yield curve suggests that China’s economic decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, is contradicting the mainstream narrative of their economic boom, raising concerns about the country’s heavy reliance on real estate and foreign debt.
    • The inverted yield curve is likely due to China’s economic decline after reopening, contradicting the mainstream narrative of their economic boom.
    • Housing prices in China’s manufacturing sector have dropped by 9% in one month, causing concern due to the country’s heavy reliance on real estate for its GDP and wealth, as well as the significant amount of debt borrowed from foreign banks.
  • 14:11 A shortage of dollar liquidity caused by a potential collapse of the Chinese economy and real estate market could lead to a global financial crisis similar to 2008, as indicated by the current yield curve.
    • Banks in the euro dollar system, which provide most of the dollar liquidity for the global economy, will restrict lending and tighten credit if they take a hit, resulting in less dollar liquidity.
    • A shortage of dollar liquidity could lead to a global financial crisis similar to the one in 2008, as the use of mortgage-backed securities as collateral in the global monetary system created a significant increase in perceived counterparty risk with the banking system.
    • The speaker suggests that the next global financial crisis, GFC 2, may be centered around the collapse of the Chinese economy and real estate market, leading to a tightening of credit issuance and dollar liquidity, as indicated by the current yield curve.
  • 17:10 Buy treasuries based on the inverted yield curve for a potential hard landing, keep 10% in gold, 80% in paying investments, and 10% in speculative assets like Bitcoin or silver; stay informed and prepared for black swan events.
    • Gammon suggests buying treasuries based on the inverted yield curve, as it indicates a hard landing and goes against mainstream media beliefs, but advises against the long end of the curve due to liquidity risks.
    • Always have 10% of your portfolio in gold for insurance, 80% in investments that pay you to own them, and 10% in speculative assets like Bitcoin or silver; keep liquidity in short-term treasuries to take advantage of opportunities during a potential global recession.
    • I prefer physical gold, but if that’s not possible, I like the Sprott trust for gold and uranium.
    • George Gammon discusses the global financial crisis and the significance of the yield curve, emphasizing the importance of being informed and prepared for potential black swan events.

Rafi Farber: Here's Where All that JP Morgan Silver Went

Arcadia Economics

Farber believes there are indications of a potential shift towards a gold to silver ratio of 15 to 1 or 20 to 1, signaling the end game and the abandonment of the silver standard.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The gold to silver ratio and the supply of gold are at critical levels, indicating potential shifts in the precious metals market.
  • The natural monetary ratio between gold and silver is historically between 15 and 25 to 1, but the current ratio of 60 to 1 suggests that one metal is being favored over the other.
  • JPMorgan’s movement of eligible ounces to the registry indicates that these ounces are likely already sold, highlighting the potential manipulation of the silver market.
  • The past week’s silver transfers into the registry exceeded the previous record set in July 2020, suggesting a high demand for physical silver during the lockdown period.
  • JP Morgan moved a significant amount of silver to the registry in anticipation of the delivery requests, indicating their awareness of the situation beforehand.
  • The majority of gold contracts delivered were taken by the banks’ house accounts, while private client accounts that issued the contracts did not take delivery, raising questions about the banks’ motives and insights.
  • “When this line breaks through, it’s going to be a major long-term trend line breaking through here and right here is the silver squeeze.”
  • “In 1970 and 1980, we hit a ratio of just about 15 to 1, showing a significant difference compared to the current ratio of around 80.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Banks are buying silver while clients are selling, as JP Morgan moves large amounts of silver, indicating a decrease in supply and a potential shift towards a gold to silver ratio of 15 to 1 or 20 to 1, signaling the end game and the abandonment of the silver standard.
    • Banks are buying while clients are selling, as JP Morgan moved 14.2 million ounces of silver and the fate of the 250 contracts they put up for sale last week is discussed.
    • Banks are hoarding warrants and the supply of silver and gold is decreasing, while the gold to silver ratio is at a critical point.
    • The gold to silver ratio is expected to fall to around 15 to 1 or 20 to 1, indicating the end game is approaching, as demonstrated by the amount of gold and silver mined by Fortuna in Q2 2022.
    • The natural monetary ratio between gold and silver is around 15 to 25 to 1, but the current ratio of 60 to 80 to 1 is due to one metal being favored over the other, resulting in the abandonment of the silver standard and the use of the dollar as a gold substitute.
  • 04:10 JP Morgan is running out of silver to sell against contracts as they have experienced a significant decrease in their silver holdings, potentially leading to a period where physical silver becomes the only option for retail transactions.
    • Gold substitutes will eventually fail, leading to a period where physical silver will be the only option for retail transactions, and JPMorgan has been moving eligible ounces for sale against Futures contracts.
    • JP Morgan was notified that 2850 contracts were going to be stood for delivery, but there are complications in the process.
    • JP Morgan has been experiencing a significant decrease in the amount of silver in its possession, with an all-time record of 30 million assets being removed in July 2020, leaving them with less than 14.2 million ounces and potentially running out of silver to sell against contracts.
  • 07:05 JP Morgan moved a significant amount of silver to the registry in response to a large number of contracts standing for delivery.
    • The first day of deliveries for the September contract had a remaining open interest of 2979.
    • JP Morgan moved a significant amount of silver to the registry in response to being informed of the 2979 contracts standing for delivery, with the majority of the silver being delivered from JP Morgan’s house account to a client account.
  • 08:47 Banks are hoarding gold warrants, while the amount of silver in the SLV is decreasing, suggesting lack of interest, but the speaker is optimistic about Palladium’s price increase.
    • Banks like HSBC, Wells Fargo, Merrick’s Capital, Scotia Capital, and Bank of America Securities are hoarding gold warrants, while private accounts that issued most of the contracts did not take delivery.
    • The amount of silver in the SLV has been consistently decreasing, indicating a lack of interest in using it as a vehicle for exposure to the silver price, while the speaker remains optimistic about the potential for the price of Palladium to increase.
  • 11:03 The speaker discusses their personal decision and experience with seeing colors, specifically blue and red, while also mentioning that commercials and bullion banks are currently record-long on Palladium, indicating a bullish posture and potential shortage in the future.
    • The speaker discusses their personal decision and experience with seeing colors, specifically blue and red.
    • The commercials and bullion banks are currently record-long on Palladium, which has only happened once before in 1999-2000, indicating a bullish posture and potential shortage in the future.
  • 12:45 Silver is at a critical point and could reach $30, while gold storage supplies are decreasing, suggesting gold is leaving storage.
    • Silver is at a major technical juncture, with the potential to break through a long-term trend line and reach $30.
    • Gold storage supplies at the gold comex have significantly decreased since the peak in 2021, indicating a slow but ongoing process of gold leaving storage, and this is also reflected in the gold to silver ratio.
  • 15:02 The silver to gold ratio has been relatively stable for the past 33 years, but if the gold ratio breaks the line at 60, there could be a collapse and silver could catch up to gold, while central banks selling off gold during a crisis is ineffective and leads to currency collapse.
    • The silver to gold ratio has been in a range of around 78.8 to 80 for the past 33 years, with a low of 30 to 1 in 2011 and a ratio of 15 to 1 in 1970 and 1980.
    • Once the gold ratio breaks the line at 60, there is a possibility of a collapse and a potential decrease in the range of 15 to 30.
    • Silver has a lot of catching up to do with gold, and central banks selling off gold to protect their currencies during a crisis is ineffective and will ultimately lead to currency collapse.
  • 17:29 Central Bank gold hoarding doesn’t matter and I don’t want them to have any; as the end game approaches, it’s more fun to have a positive outlook and support Arcadia economics.

The US Bankrupting Itself on Wars -w/ Ron Paul, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

The Duran

Ron Paul discusses how the United States is on the path to moral and financial bankruptcy due to unsustainable military spending, excessive borrowing, and a lack of accountability. Yet there is still hope for positive change if individuals prioritize peace, prosperity, and personal liberty.

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Impact of Wars

  • “The US bankrupting itself on wars.”
  • The US spending money on wars overseas contributes to the bankrupting of the country, with little to do with national security.
  • The idea that a war is beneficial for the economy and job creation is a misconception and not supported by evidence.
  • “It’s good for killing people. It’s good for running up debt. It’s good for hurting the middle class.”
  • “You have to declare bankruptcy because you can’t pay your bills. That’s what we’re in the middle of and more every day there’s going to be the Declaration of the bankruptcy.”

Importance of Prioritizing Peace and Personal Liberty

  • “I wasn’t looking for a war. I was looking for getting out of the military and getting out of this policy” – Ron Paul emphasizes his opposition to war and his desire to prioritize peace over military intervention.
  • The biggest harm caused by the current system is the erosion of personal liberty, which hinders individuals’ ability to own property, work, and live their own lives without depending on the government.
  • The historical policy of the United States was to seek peace and avoid a military-industrial complex in order to promote prosperity and democracy within the country.
  • “The mistakes are we’re aware of it and this is why I remain an optimist because I believe that the message is not complex and all we have to do is expand its popularity and the opportunity is here because the system we have now is not working.”
  • “The only way we can reintroduce sound economics and our moral system is for this thing to fall apart.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The US is bankrupting itself on wars due to the military industrial complex prioritizing profit over national defense, with no legislative control or accountability over spending and no audits of funds or the Pentagon.
    • The video discusses the US bankrupting itself on wars and the new great power rivalry between the United States, Russia, and China.
    • The military industrial complex is a problem as it prioritizes profiteering over national defense, with politicians justifying spending on weapons as a jobs program.
    • There is a lack of legislative control and accountability over the US government’s spending on wars, as there is no audit of the funds and the Pentagon never gets audited.
  • 04:02 The US is bankrupting itself through wars and deficit financing, resulting in inflation and a regressive tax on the middle class and poor, despite the belief that wars create jobs and prosperity.
    • The US is bankrupting itself through wars and deficit financing, leading to inflation and a regressive tax on the middle class and poor, despite the belief that wars are good for job creation.
    • Wars may decrease unemployment numbers, but they do not necessarily create good jobs or contribute to a prosperous economy; instead, they result in the consumption of wealth rather than its production.
    • The speaker discusses the importance of following the Constitution, particularly in regards to declaring war and restraining government growth, in order to enhance the people’s abilities to earn a living, save money, and be responsible.
  • 07:17 The US’s shift towards great power rivalry and its constant search for enemies is leading to bankruptcy, as patriotism and national security are used to silence those who question military actions.
    • The shift from small wars to great power rivalry has led to a preference for unipolarity and a move towards dedolarization, which is likely to continue and pose a threat to the dollar in the future.
    • The US constantly seeks enemies to justify its patriotism and support for the military-industrial complex, currently focusing on China and Russia, but this approach is not beneficial for the economy or security and is leading to bankruptcy.
    • Patriotism and national security are used to silence those who question military actions, even though supporting the military does not mean supporting war.
  • 10:29 The US military-industrial complex and its reliance on debt and interventionism may lead to the downfall of the American empire, harming personal liberty, as the current political class departs from a policy of peace and prosperity through a small Armed Forces.
    • The speaker believes that the US military-industrial complex and its reliance on debt and interventionism will eventually lead to the end of the American empire, and while the current system may hold together for now, it is causing harm to personal liberty.
    • The United States historically sought peace and prosperity through a small Armed Forces and avoiding a military-industrial complex, but it seems that the current political class has departed from this policy.
    • Isolationists are not the ones who provoke wars and sanctions, but rather those who isolate themselves and build up their own country.
  • 13:59 Americans are losing faith in the fairness of their judicial system and elections, while the US should prioritize peace and prosperity over military spending to avoid further animosity.
    • America’s reputation for having a fair judicial system and honest elections is diminishing, as people are becoming disillusioned with the current state of affairs and believe that the Department of Justice is being manipulated for political gain.
    • Americans believe they have a moral obligation to force their beliefs on others, but this approach only breeds more hatred and the US should focus on promoting peace and prosperity instead of military spending.
  • 15:57 The US is on the path to moral and financial bankruptcy due to unsustainable money printing and declining morality, but there is still a remnant of people who believe in preserving values of liberty, justice, peace, and honesty, despite the distortion of truth and deterioration of society, with the main driver of US foreign policy being a combination of the military-industrial complex, obsession with hegemony, and a mix of idealism and power ambitions.
    • The current system is failing and will lead to a moral and financial bankruptcy, as evidenced by the unsustainable printing of money and the decline in morality in institutions like schools.
    • There is a remnant of people who believe in liberty, justice, peace, and honesty, despite the distortion of truth and the deterioration of society, and it is our responsibility to preserve these values.
    • The main driver of US foreign policy is a combination of the military-industrial complex, an obsession with hegemony, and a mix of idealism and power ambitions, with Woodrow Wilson’s mission to make the world safe for democracy being a turning point in US foreign policy.
  • 19:53 Politicians deceive people and vote in their own interests, but they should follow a simple rule of not taking what doesn’t belong to them, including debasing the currency, in order to bring about positive change.
    • Politicians use propaganda to deceive people and vote in favor of their own interests, but they should follow a simple rule of not taking what doesn’t belong to them, including debasing the currency, in order to bring about positive change.
    • Why do so few people in Congress understand common sense?
    • Politicians conform to destructive policies due to pressure from lobbyists and their desire for wealth and power, while the average person is indoctrinated to believe in government redistribution of wealth without realizing it worsens the situation.
    • The government penalizes working people to support those who break the law, defunds the police, and fails to punish repeat offenders, all while claiming to help those in need.
  • 24:00 The US is bankrupting itself through excessive borrowing, with most of the money going to the rich in banking, pharmaceutical, and military industries, and the only way to fix this is for the current system to collapse, but it will be difficult if people continue to be educated in the government school system that teaches nonsense.
    • Most of the money from transfers goes to the rich in the banking, pharmaceutical, and military industries, making our problems worse, and the only way to reintroduce sound economics and a moral system is for the current system to collapse, but it will be difficult to switch over if people continue to be educated in the government school system that teaches nonsense.
    • The US is bankrupting itself through excessive borrowing and will eventually face inflation and currency destruction.
    • Ron Paul believes that getting the US out of its foreign policy crisis and avoiding war with Russia and China would be difficult but possible, as the president has the authority to end illegal wars and control the troops.
    • Don’t engage in endless wars without clear objectives and public support, like the US has been doing in the Middle East for the past 20 years.
    • Take away food stamps from corporations instead of the poor to address the deficit and prevent the middle class from suffering higher prices.

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