Towards the end of economic expansions, interest rates usually start to rise as strong loan demand bumps up against central bank tightening. At first the
The idea that as more people move to Hurricane Alley and other storm-prone places, the future cost of those storms will rise – and that
One of the big recent changes in American life is the ongoing mass-migration from the middle of the country to the coasts, especially those of
Automtaic Earth’s Raúl Ilargi Meijer just posted an essential essay on the world’s financial markets – or what used to be the world’s financial markets.
Long credit cycles like the current one always end with a crash. But first they deteriorate. The headline numbers remain positive while under the surface
US growth, such as it is, has lately been driven by a handful of hot sectors. Car sales have set records, high-end real estate is
For a while there it looked like the US and its main trading partners had finally achieved escape velocity. Growth was up, inflation was poking
It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal
The dollar is tanking lately. From a high of around 100 in December, the dollar index — which measures USD against a basket of foreign
Talk about diminished expectations. This morning’s estimate of 1.4% Q4 GDP growth is being hailed as a pleasant surprise. Which is odd, considering that for
Anyone who doubts that the global financial system has run out of (good new) ideas has only to track the recent words and deeds of
One by one the pillars of the recovery are toppling. Last year the Chinese infrastructure party ended and the shale oil boom went bust. More
Regular contributor Michael Pollaro offers three more charts which tell a story that’s both disturbing and apparently misunderstood by a lot of mainstream analysts. The
If 2015 was the year in which no investment strategy worked, 2016 is looking like the year in which all economic policies fail. Already, at
Good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a couple of charts that show the US economy heading for a brick wall. The first illustrates what happens
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