A secular bear market in stocks is likely to begin during Trump’s potential second term, driven by factors like valuations, economy, debt, interest rates, and bond market conditions.
The 10-year yield reaching 5% could trigger significant selling pressure on stocks, potentially initiating the next secular bear market, similar to events in the late 1960s.
The percentage of stocks in household portfolios has reached a record high of over 2,000, surpassing levels seen in 2000, which historically correlates with poor 10-year equity returns.
Presidents Nixon, Carter, and Reagan all experienced stock market declines of 25-50% within their first two years in office, suggesting a potential bear market in the near future.
The 40-month moving average serves as a key signal for secular bear markets, with convincing breaks below it indicating the start of a new bear market, as observed in 2001.
The Fed’s 2% inflation target deliberately decreases purchasing power by 2% annually, potentially causing a 20% decrease in house value over 10 years and leading to economic instability.
The Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment implies a triple mandate including a normal yield curve, but targeting 2% inflation violates this third aspect.
The 2% inflation target acts as a tax on savers, eroding the purchasing power of savings by 2% each year according to the Federal Reserve’s own website.
The Fed’s policy relies on money illusion, where people focus on nominal wage gains rather than real purchasing power, effectively allowing the government to expropriate value through inflation.
The video argues for a return to a gold-backed dollar to make money as trustworthy as gold itself, suggesting this as a solution to current monetary issues.
Trump’s presidency is expected to lift $1 trillion in regulatory pressure, benefiting energy and other sectors, while Biden added layers of administration and regulation, stopping natural gas exports and new energy permits.
The proposed “tariff for set prosity act” would impose reciprocal tariffs between countries, with O’Leary advocating for even higher tariffs on China to match their 400% tariffs, potentially causing job losses in China.
O’Leary predicts the dollar will strengthen under Trump, whose transparent yet unpredictable approach may scare China, Iran, and Putin.
O’Leary criticizes Trudeau’s leadership, claiming he has “killed” Canada with capital leaving, GDP per capita collapse, and investment collapse over the past 8.5 years.
The video briefly mentions gold and bitcoin as potential investment options, though specific insights are not provided in the given notes.
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