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Top Three Videos – September 14, 2023

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Brace For 50%-70% Market Crash, $150 Oil, Housing Collapse | Todd Horwitz

David Lin

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Predictions and Market Analysis

  • “Banks are borrowing at a record pace on the emergency lending rate from the Federal Reserve, similar to what happened before the big collapse in 2008.”
  • Brace for a 50%-70% market crash and a housing collapse, as the weakening economy may lead to a decrease in demand and force prices to go up, impacting consumers worldwide.
  • “I got a feeling that next year you might see all-time new highs and all you might be. See about 150 plus.”
  • “Look at the highest tax states in the United States California New York and Illinois and they’re always broke and they’re charging ridiculous amounts of taxes, whereas Florida and Texas are flush with cash and they don’t charge taxes.”
  • “The FED lost control” implies that the Federal Reserve’s actions and policies have not been effective in managing the market, potentially leading to negative consequences such as a market crash.
  • The housing market may experience a collapse due to people being unable to afford higher mortgage rates, resulting in sellers unwilling to sell their homes at lower prices.
  • Todd Horwitz predicts a 50-70% market crash and a housing market collapse, comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis.
  • “There’s a huge sell-off coming.”
  • “My entire portfolio is hedged to a maximum risk of about three percent.”

Impact of Oil Prices and Energy Market

  • “I would suspect that oil will be over a hundred dollars before the year is over.” – Todd Horwitz predicts a significant increase in oil prices due to Saudi Arabia’s control over production and the United States’ low inventory levels.
  • Despite having enough oil in the country to last 300 years at current usage, the government chooses not to drill their own oil due to financial incentives from OPEC and other sources.
  • Expect $150 oil prices in the future.
  • Todd Horwitz suggests that oil prices could reach $150, highlighting the possibility of significant volatility in the energy market.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Todd Horwitz predicts a significant market crash and believes that the S&P 500 has already peaked, with warning signs including banks borrowing at a record pace, declining grain markets, and true inflation being closer to 20%, while oil prices are expected to reach over $100 by year-end.
    • Retail traders are ignoring warning signs such as banks borrowing at a record pace and the grain markets getting hammered, while true inflation is likely closer to 20% when considering food and energy.
    • Horwitz  predicts a significant market crash and believes that the S&P 500 has already reached its peak for the year, expecting a healthy sell-off in the fourth quarter.
    • He believes that the Bears will take control of the market due to factors such as volume, overall price action, and the ignorance of retail traders.
    • There are warning signs of trouble in the markets, such as banks borrowing at a record pace, the decline in grain markets, and the discrepancy between the reported CPI and true inflation, as well as the overlooked loss of jobs and downward revisions in job reports.
    • Oil prices have been rising due to Saudi Arabia cutting production and the United States having low inventory, and it is predicted that oil will reach over $100 by the end of the year.
  • 04:28 OPEC production cuts will raise fuel prices, while the speaker predicts a market crash, high oil prices, and a housing collapse, questioning the Biden Administration’s delay in restocking the emergency oil reserve.
    • OPEC’s production cuts will lead to a decrease in supply, causing prices to rise and forcing consumers to pay more for fuel.
    • Horwitz discusses the impact of federal gasoline taxes on average individuals and predicts a market crash, high oil prices, and a housing collapse, while also questioning the ability to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
    • The Biden Administration is delaying plans to restock the nation’s emergency oil reserve, causing oil prices to rise, which is part of their strategy to destroy small businesses and allow conglomerates to control the world.
  • 07:22 Next year, there may be all-time highs in the market and oil prices could reach $150, but inaccurate reporting and the exclusion of food and energy costs from the CPI index make it difficult to predict the overall impact; rising service sector prices and the cost of hiring people contribute to high inflation, while companies struggle to pay employees enough to cover the rising cost of living and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control inflation and interest rates cause expenses to skyrocket, leading to a divergence between wholesale and retail prices and a need for higher taxes on necessities like gas; government spending is out of control, resulting in high taxes and financial instability in certain states, while others thrive without charging taxes.
    • Next year, there may be all-time new highs in the market and oil prices could reach $150, but it is difficult to predict the impact on the overall CPI index due to inaccurate reporting and the fact that food and energy only account for four percent of the index.
    • Horwitz discusses how the inflation index, which excludes food and energy costs, is still high due to the rising prices in the service sector and the cost of hiring people.
    • Companies are struggling to pay employees enough to cover the rising cost of living, while the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control inflation and interest rates are causing expenses to skyrocket, leading to a divergence between wholesale and retail prices and a need for higher taxes on necessities like gas.
    • Government spending is out of control, leading to high taxes and financial instability in states like California, New York, and Illinois, while states like Florida and Texas thrive without charging taxes.
  • 10:47 Horwitz  predicts a 50-70% market crash, housing market collapse, and plans to buy properties at a lower price due to overvaluation and high interest rates.
    • He expects the economic numbers to come in better than expected so that President Biden can claim credit for a good economy.
    • He states that they do not find any of the upcoming economic data points important or reliable, except for the ISM numbers.
    • CPI and PPI numbers will have the biggest impact on the market, with the possibility of the Federal Reserve changing their outlook due to inflation, and the prediction that they will remain hawkish until the 10-year reaches six percent.
    • Banks are overleveraged, potential for another COVID shutdown, mortgage rates are not coming down, and there is a slowdown in construction.
    • Due to the increase in mortgage rates, people can no longer afford to buy houses, resulting in a housing market collapse and high home prices.
    • Horwitz predicts a 50-70% market crash, a collapse in the housing market, and plans to buy properties at a lower price due to overvaluation and high interest rates.
  • 15:55 Mid caps and small caps are being intentionally pushed out of business, the speaker predicts a significant market crash and advises traders to make decisions based on technical analysis rather than fundamentals.
    • Mid caps and small caps are being intentionally punished and pushed out of business, causing a divergence between them and big blue chip companies.
    • Horwitz believes that the current market resembles the 90s internet bubble, and although they think stocks are overvalued, they emphasize the importance of making a decision as a trader or investor on when to exit and not succumb to pressure.
    • He predicts a significant market crash and explains that he observes patterns such as a spike followed by sideways movement and lower highs and lows as indicators of a market topping.
    • Discusses the indication of a turning trend in the market, specifically mentioning Apple, and emphasizes the importance of trading based on technical analysis rather than fundamentals.
    • Avises against buying on the dip and is currently shorting the S&P 500, but would consider buying if it reaches certain levels and shows a change in trend.
    • Discusses their approach to trading, stating that they make decisions based on market trends and will stay long or short until there is a reason to change, holding positions as long as they are trending in a certain direction.
  • 21:15 Brace for a 50%-70% market crash, $150 oil, and a housing collapse, as the speaker is short on silver and the S&P, but long on oil, gold, and platinum, with gold having a chance to reach new highs this year.
    • Horwitz is short on silver and the S&P, long on oil, gold, and platinum, and believes that gold has a chance to reach new highs this year.
    • Gold going to new all-time highs is not necessarily correlated with the 10-year continuous moving up, as correlations don’t always happen in the same way, so it’s not a concern.
    • Gold prices have been relatively stable despite the high value of the dollar, and the earlier pop in gold prices was likely due to new money entering the market rather than a reaction to the banking crisis.
    • The market is already pricing in news items, making it less likely for tomorrow’s number to have a major impact, as information flows faster and markets become more efficient.
  • 24:41 Horwitz discusses his experience trading options, emphasizing the importance of risk management and hedging strategies to protect against market volatility.
    • Discusses his experience trading on the floor and how technology has advanced, mentioning their book “Bubba’s guide to trading options” that was written 10 years ago and sold out on Amazon.
    • Horwitz wrote a book to share his trading strategies and help others who struggle with investing and trading, offering PDF copies to interested listeners and watchers.
    • Trading options without proper risk management can lead to financial ruin, but using strategies taught in the book or studies can help mitigate risk and make options trading simpler.
    • Horwitz discusses his strategy of buying and selling options to protect themselves and hedge their portfolio, with a maximum risk of about three percent.
    • Discusses the use of option strategies to amplify risk or reduce risk in trading, and emphasizes the importance of having a risk-averse hedging strategy to protect against adverse market conditions.

Tucker Carlson- Reckless Monetary Policy and Hyperinflation

Tucker Carlson Episode 23/ Twitter-X

Hyperinflation and reckless monetary policy could soon devastate the global economy.

Tucker traveled to Argentina, where it’s already happened.

CIA Manipulation of Public Opinion w/Jeffrey Sachs

Judge Napolitano

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The American people are kept in the dark about the actions of the security state, with little democratic influence over decisions such as involvement in Ukraine.
  • The Patriot Act, enacted after 9/11, allowed the federal government to spy in ways that were even worse and more sophisticated than imagined, and this surveillance has not dissipated despite the decrease in the terroristic threat.
  • The truth about significant events, such as the assassination of President Kennedy, is often hidden and only revealed through whistleblowers and individuals who are willing to speak out.
  • The United States acts as the successor Empire of the Anglo-Saxon world, with its security state extending its influence and control over countries like Britain and Canada.
  • The CIA’s manipulation of public opinion includes overthrowing governments and creating confusion about their goals and actions.
  • The Secretary General of NATO admitted that the war in Ukraine is a result of NATO enlargement, contradicting the narrative that Russia is solely responsible.
  • It was completely knowable and predictable that the U.S was sending Ukraine into a bloodbath this summer.
  • The war in Ukraine was ignited by a covert operation by the US in 2014, and a new phase started in 2022 with Russia’s military operation, resulting in a devastating bloodbath.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The intelligence community, including the CIA, Pentagon, and White House, holds significant power over the executive branch, limiting democratic influence on decision-making.
    • The intelligence community, including the CIA, Pentagon, and occasionally the White House, runs the executive branch of the United States government.
    • The security state has a stranglehold on the White House, regardless of the president’s capabilities, and the American people have no democratic influence over the decisions made by the executive branch and the CIA.
  • 03:28 The CIA’s creation in 1947 was a mistake, as it now has unprecedented power to spy on citizens and potentially manipulate the government, and should be disbanded.
    • The CIA is out of control and should be disbanded, as the Patriot Act allowed for unprecedented government spying that has only become more sophisticated over time.
    • The creation of the CIA in 1947 was a mistake as it serves both as an intelligence agency and a secret army, which can potentially manipulate the Congress and the White House.
  • 05:50 Sachs exposes the CIA’s manipulation of public opinion, highlighting their involvement in regime change and spreading false information, leading to dangerous consequences like the war with Russia and the assassination of President Kennedy, while Congress lacks transparency and accountability in authorizing surveillance acts and funding the CIA.
    • Sachs discusses the CIA’s secret army and their involvement in regime change operations, psychological operations, and the spread of false information, highlighting the dangerous consequences such as the war with Russia and the assassination of President Kennedy.
    • American people did not believe the absurd things being said by the CIA.
    • The government’s lack of control and the shutdown of investigations into a dangerous rogue operation pose a serious problem, especially with an elderly leader like Biden.
    • Congress continues to authorize surveillance acts and provide funding for the CIA without transparency or accountability due to fear and influence from the intelligence community and the military-industrial complex, resulting in a lack of debate and discussion on important issues like Ukraine.
  • 10:35 The US security state, inherited from the British Empire, controls the Anglo-Saxon world and exerts strong influence over politicians, particularly evident in the UK’s avoidance of contradicting the US, as seen with Tony Blair and the Iraq War, while the rest of the world disagrees with their actions and desires a more peaceful approach.
    • The Anglo-Saxon world, including the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, is controlled by the US security state, which was passed down from the British Empire, and its intelligence community has a strong influence over politicians in these countries.
    • Australia, New Zealand, and Britain have strong security links with the United States, with British prime ministers avoiding contradicting the US, as seen with Tony Blair and the Iraq War.
    • The five eyes, which includes the US, New Zealand, Australia, UK, and Canada, form a deep security state that shares intelligence, but the rest of the world disagrees with their actions and wants them to calm down.
  • 13:51 Sachs highlights the reasons behind the war in Ukraine, including a covert regime change operation, NATO enlargement, and the consequences of overthrowing a government seeking neutrality.
    • Admiral Kirby reiterates the administration’s consistent stance on the goal of their actions in Ukraine during a press conference.
    • We want Ukraine to succeed, regain its territory, have its sovereignty respected, and end the war, but it is unlikely to happen as long as Russian troops remain, despite claims from senior people in Congress.
    • The speaker discusses the reasons behind the war, including the covert regime change operation in 2014, NATO enlargement against Russia’s red line, and the consequences of overthrowing a government that wanted neutrality for Ukraine.
  • 16:49 Sachs expresses concern about the US knowingly sending Ukraine into a dangerous situation, concealing the ongoing counter-offensive resulting in untrained individuals being sent to their deaths, and the delay in receiving weapons from the United States allowing Russia to prepare and defend their territory.
    • President Trump and Jack Tashara are going on trial for unlawful possession and exposure of National Defense information, and a CBS News report shows General Miley taking David Roberts into the Subterranean inner sanctum of the Pentagon where intelligence from the battlefields of Ukraine is monitored.
    • Sachs expresses concern that the US knowingly sent Ukraine into a dangerous situation, despite the clear and predictable military advantages of Russia.
    • He expresses concern that the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive, which involves untrained individuals being sent to their deaths, is being concealed from the American people who are unknowingly funding this bloodshed.
    • President Zelensky acknowledges that the delay in receiving weapons from the United States allowed the Russians to prepare and defend their territory, emphasizing the importance of timely support.
  • 22:25 Ukraine is being destroyed due to President Zelinski’s failure to negotiate neutrality with Russia, resulting in a bloodbath, while the US government avoids admitting their mistakes and advocates for more weapons.
    • Ukraine, a vassal state of the US, is being destroyed due to President Zelinski’s failure to negotiate with Russia on the basis of neutrality, leading to a bloodbath.
    • They knew they didn’t have the means to carry out the offensive, yet thousands of people have died and the violence continues, while politicians ignore the truth and advocate for more weapons.
    • The US president avoids telling the American people the truth about the terrible blunder and tragedy of the US pushing Ukraine, with Biden being part of the overthrow group, and the current administration refusing to admit their mistakes due to an upcoming election.

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