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Economy

Are Cars About to Crash?

September 26, 2014 14 Comments

New car sales have been one of the bright spots of the US recovery. And they’re still at it: September U.S. auto sales to rise

They’re Lying To Us, Part 5: Fake Credit Scores

August 10, 2014 7 Comments

Like any other weak-willed entity, an over-indebted country eventually finds that formerly-easy things get harder to do. Today, for instance, banks are having trouble attracting

They’re Lying To Us, Part 1: Unemployment

June 16, 2014 15 Comments

One of the frustrating things about the monthly US jobs report is the way everyone focuses on the wrong number. The headline says “unemployment falls…”

US GDP Even Worse Than It Looks, Again

May 29, 2014 12 Comments

As expected, the US revised the most recent quarter’s GDP from barely positive to sharply negative today. But once again the true extent of the

What Blows Up First? Part 4: China

February 18, 2014 9 Comments

To Westerners, China has always been a mystery. The huge population of very smart, hard-working people. The succession of unfamiliar, authoritarian governments. The sense that

What Blows Up First? Part 3: Subprime Countries

January 27, 2014 21 Comments

One of the reasons the rich countries’ excessive money creation hasn’t ignited a generalized inflation is that today’s global economy is, well, global. When the

What Blows Up First? Part 1: Europe

December 30, 2013 58 Comments

2013 was a year in which lots of imbalances built up but none blew up. The US and Japan continued to monetize their debt, in

Terrible Technicals

September 20, 2013 11 Comments

I have a theory about technical indicators, which is that most people only pay attention to the ones that confirm what they already think. Technicals

Mass Delusion and the Myth of Deleveraging

September 14, 2013 35 Comments

Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland marks the fifth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers — and the near-collapse of the global financial system — by

Confluence

September 3, 2013 28 Comments

If history could talk, the first thing it would say is, “Enjoy the tranquil stretches because they’re always temporary.” The past few years were, in

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