Economist Peter Bookvar recently analyzed the the anecdotal evidence of capacity constraints piling up in recent industry surveys, including the following: “Business is strong in
Oil prices are up over the past year, which is bad if you’re, say, a developing country that imports a lot of the stuff. But
Monthly economic readings tend to be full of noise and are therefore unreliable. So it’s best to save the excited assertions for established trends. The
The longer an expansion lasts, the crappier its paper becomes. That may seem like a baseless assertion, but it’s actually just simple math. Early in
Turning points in a financial system usually occur in discrete phases. At first, new information that contradicts existing preconceptions is dismissed as unimportant. But as
A couple of decades ago, when the post-war baby boom generation was in its prime earning and tax-paying years, governments had a chance to guarantee
The early stages of a housing bubble are fun for pretty much everyone. Homeowners see their equity start to rise and feel smart for having
Today’s Wall Street Journal is profiling an orthodontist who has $1 million in student loans, is paying less than the interest that’s accruing, and because
After an epic (generation-spanning at the long end) decline in interest rates, the trend has finally reversed. Which means, if history is still a reliable
A while back, a writer (whose name and story details I unfortunately don’t remember) was researching the credit card business and tried to figure out
Big companies report blow-out earnings. Home prices soar. North Korea promises to end its nuke program, possibly averting another Asian war. And stocks fall. Does
Let’s start with Caterpillar, the maker of earth moving equipment that has for years been the poster child for global slowdown. Every quarter was worse
Back in the 1500s, a financial agent of Queen Elizabeth I named Thomas Gresham observed that that “bad money drives out good.” That is, if
Cornflakes and milk may or may not be getting more expensive, but some higher-profile things are rocking like it’s 1979. Houses, for example: Home prices
When an entity needs to borrow ever-greater amounts of money to survive, the markets – that is, the people who are being asked to lend
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